ahuh. so what do you think we should use? tea leaves?
No - we should use common sense.
Just about every real world economic indicator has been pointing - and continues to point to - a weak economy. Which is why it is always good to look at a breakdown of the figures. The money from selling the 99 year leases for Port Botany and Port Kembla will likely be salted away in pursuit of a budget surplus so there isn't much point pretending that such an asset sale will add a great deal to real growth, despite the fact that it counts in GDP.
Other than that, spending growth by the private sector was exceedingly weak - that's not a particularly encouraging sign.
Seems to be a bit of a weak result. From the NAB economics team...
Looks like another example of GDP being a poor match for what is happening in the real economy.
That is weak growth in private sector spending, reflecting the near-recessionary conditions being experienced in much of the economy at present.
I agree Lefty. The media and investors have misread the national accounts IMO.
Asset transfer (debatable whether this was "production") plus rise in inventories pretty much accounted for all of the growth. Inventories will reverse next qtr, no more asset transfers, and CAPEX is flatlining....
Asset transfer (debatable whether this was "production") plus rise in inventories pretty much accounted for all of the growth. Inventories will reverse next qtr, no more asset transfers, and CAPEX is flatlining....
Surely transfers are entirely neutral and correctly accounted for in the data. For example, the growth in private sector Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) was matched by the fall in public sector GFCF which was almost entirely the result of the transfer of NSW port assets from the public sector to the private sector of over $5 billion. How did this transfer add to GDP?
Asset transfer (debatable whether this was "production") plus rise in inventories pretty much accounted for all of the growth. Inventories will reverse next qtr, no more asset transfers, and CAPEX is flatlining....
Surely transfers are entirely neutral and correctly accounted for in the data. For example, the growth in private sector Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) was matched by the fall in public sector GFCF which was almost entirely the result of the transfer of NSW port assets from the public sector to the private sector of over $5 billion. How did this transfer add to GDP?
Contributions to GDP growth, Seasonally adjusted
Yes - you are right. The negative offsets the positive (my bad). Dumb way to look at it, but there you go.
Still, underlying GDP looks weak after taking into account the outlook for CAPEX, and future inventory adjustments.
I guess the good news is the Coalition does not look like they will impose austerity, and housing supply is begining to respond to higher prices.
Asset transfer (debatable whether this was "production") plus rise in inventories pretty much accounted for all of the growth. Inventories will reverse next qtr, no more asset transfers, and CAPEX is flatlining....
Surely transfers are entirely neutral and correctly accounted for in the data. For example, the growth in private sector Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) was matched by the fall in public sector GFCF which was almost entirely the result of the transfer of NSW port assets from the public sector to the private sector of over $5 billion. How did this transfer add to GDP?
Contributions to GDP growth, Seasonally adjusted
So disregard the transfer and see what you have left. Growth that can't be described as anything better than weak.
So disregard the transfer and see what you have left. Growth that can't be described as anything better than weak.
It's better than nothing, from what I'm reading..
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Growth that can't be described as anything better than weak.
Growth does not a 40% crash make
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
So disregard the transfer and see what you have left.
Exactly the same growth as with the transfer and as reported.
Real growth of 0.6% for the quarter and 2.6% for the year.
That's higher than most major economies including the US, UK, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, etc.
So disregard the transfer and see what you have left.
Exactly the same growth as with the transfer and as reported.
Real growth of 0.6% for the quarter and 2.6% for the year.
That's higher than most major economies including the US, UK, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, etc.
All true - but Leftee's point is well made. Growth is below trend, and there are some headwinds.
On the flip side, no real Austerity comming from the Coalition (which was my biggest fear), and housing construction starting to pick up. And housing construction has a much higher multipler than mining CAPEX.
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