I get really annoyed when people talk about unaffordable housing - you got to make your own luck; We made sacrifices, worked hard, made some smart decisions, and now we have a portfolio
Tweet Topic Started: 4 Sep 2013, 08:24 AM (7,117 Views)
Skamy, your whole argument is based on the belief that only the good bits of history will repeat themselves.
I'm not calling for one, but the great depression is a historical fact, history could just as easily wipe everyones equity out just as much as growth could continue.
Yes, I know, we moved from a physical security (gold) to a theoretical security (fiat) which does provide better controls, but only if enough people believe they can get something out of it.
Unfortunately, growth, in any form is unsustainable for any substantial length of time, growth must come to a standstill at some stage.
Simple mathematics describes this, exponential growth will lead, quite quickly, to infinity.
What we are all doing is speculating (forecasting) and that is a dangerous game, especially when we believe we have all the variables lined up.
Just because it happened before, doesn't mean it will happen again.
We might have a global pandemic, or a global war (which is seeming increasingly possible) that could route the population of our little blue world, It could destroy all our efforts. It may go the opposite way and growth could continue for a while, but eventually it must come to stagnate.
I love how you deride opposing beliefs calling them silly, when you simply state an opposing belief and expect everyone to see your belief as truth. Sounds very christian to me, except they go further and call people heathens.
I have read a good few of your posts and on some topics we agree.
I have never stated that there is no chance of future downturns nor have I denied the existence of past ones, so you are simply incorrect to phrase my standpoint as "the belief that only the good bits of history will repeat themselves."
To deal with your critique of my viewpoint on property price growth I would say that price growth can be modeled as it is determined by very simple principles- if a city is growing in population house prices will rise as more people compete for the well located properties. Whether the growth is exponential or not is not something I have ever claimed . Clearly there can be volatility and I have witnessed 3 major problematic times in property investment, there can also be wars that wipe out a generation from contributing to society ie the great depression. Thankfully this is not the norm.
I lived through the 70s and the 90s downturns and watched as house prices fell then eventually returned to growth such that the drops were just a blip. I call it silly to believe property will not deliver to this new generation what it deliver to the last, because it is indeed silly to believe that, and it could prove very disadvantageous to young people who believe unscrupulous house crash spruikers selling unattainable cheap house dreams. Investing over the long term in a growing city is a low risk speculative decision. Investing by waiting on house prices to drop is a high risk speculation.
Your belief that increasing growth is unsustainable is also a speculation. When I was a kid we had no central heating, no aircon, no DVD, no Cd player, no mobile phones,no digital cameras,no PCs , no PlayStation, no ipads etc etc,heck our family never owned a car and that was not uncommon. Yet today even the lowest quintile of our population in Australia have access to all these things. So one thing I have learnt is never underestimate the ingenuity and creativity that the future may hold. One single huge technological step, could catapult growth to levels never dreamed off.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
<snip a whole bunch of patronising bone-headed crap>
<snipping some poorly written patronising crap>
Yes of course darling, but didn't you know?
I don't want to make money..... I just want to be wonderful!
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Wages up 100% in 2 decades. House prices up 200% in 2 decades. Interest rates down 50% in 2 decades.
I'm still sure there must be some sort of pattern/relationship there somewhere? But it simply eludes me. Which isn't that surprising as the bulls keep telling me I'm a dill and that there's obviously no relationship between house prices and interest rates ...
Ask Strindberg - He's the one who posted that house prices go up as interest rates go up - Without making any attempt to point out that this just might be the exception rather than the rule. Which was at which point I decided you lot were just out and out iffy ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Ask Strindberg - He's the one who posted that house prices go up as interest rates go up - Without making any attempt to point out that this just might be the exception rather than the rule. Which was at which point I decided you lot were just out and out iffy ...
No idea what you're going on about there... sounds like an irrelevant diversion.
You said 'bulls keep telling me I'm a dill and that there's obviously no relationship between house prices and interest rates'.
It's OK... I know you can't find any links so I won't push you for them... it's pretty hard to find a link to something that doesn't exist.
Yes Blondie... I must learn my manners & not get personal, when a fellow gen x has more brains than me.
Maybe there is hope for me because I do know better .........
Fixed it Moops ...
I know you know ...
better....sometimes.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Your whole argument is based on a silly belief that property will no longer provide good returns. Why on earth you think that will happen is beyond me. Property will do what it has always done as we compete with each other for the best locations.
Quote:
So one thing I have learnt is never underestimate the ingenuity and creativity that the future may hold. One single huge technological step, could catapult growth to levels never dreamed of.
"Economic growth can increase indefinitely despite the laws of physics."
Which it cannot. This is not speculation, it's applied mathematics. There are finite resources.
Economic growth will find a limit, we may find a solution to that, but I believe we won't (this is speculation), not in time for us to maintain growth indefinitely.
The "norm" may change, making all our assumptions void. It used to be normal for women to be the homemaker and do nothing else than raise children, now they have jobs and lives beyond sewing. It also used to be normal, if not expected, that husbands are to beat their wives. It used to be normal to throw nightsoil out into the street, now we have plumbing and sewerage. It used to be normal for travel between continents to take months, now it takes mere hours.
What the best locations are now and what they are in the future may not be the same, I agree, it is unlikely that they will change quickly, but we can't assume that property will do the same as it has in the past. Especially not on such a small time scale as 40-50 years.
It is speculation in that it may take decades or centuries to get to a point where our resources are stretched to their limit. It may happen tomorrow, no one knows (though this is a stretch). We can suspect.
Increasing growth, by it's very nature is unsustainable in a closed system. Even when such growth is not exponential.
We have a closed system of finite resources, one planet, no new resources are made quickly enough for us to rely on them being available in ever increasing amounts. (Please, don't be a space cadet, I'm a trekkie and even I see the limits to those narratives)
Increasing technological breakthroughs may extend the time we have, but it will still reach a limit.
I would never suggest that waiting for a downturn to make a leap into financial security is a good thing.
I do advocate caution, reflection and understanding.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Mr vulture, yes I know you are wonderful & you certainly not need to make any effort ...
All you need to do is tell mummy & daddy that you want their properties , hey, they may be convinced before they die ...
Better suck up to them & be a good actor.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy
