BHP Billiton has predicted the recent signs of economic improvement in the US will continue, in an upbeat assessment of the global economy.
Australia's biggest company said the improvement in the US and the changing focus of the Chinese economy meant the world should witness ''more balanced'' growth over the coming decade, even if structural problems persisted in Europe.
But the multinational miner warned that risks remained, including those posed by possible changes to monetary policy in the US.
Despite gas prices improving in the US - where BHP now owns close to $US20 billion worth of shale operations - BHP said it expected prices for iron ore and coal to be weighed down over coming years by the sharp increase in supply.
''We maintain a positive outlook over the long term as the fundamentals of wealth creation, demographics and urbanisation continue to create demand for commodities across Asia and other markets,'' chairman Jac Nasser said.
BHP revealed that the development of its US shale business was set for a minor change of tack, specifically in Texas' highly prospective Permian basin.
Continued work in the region has found the Permian should no longer be thought of as a single business unit, because the areas that were prospective for shale oil were geographically disparate and could not share common infrastructure.
RUSAL, the world’s largest aluminium producer, has urged the LME to delay proposed rule changes that aim to increase withdrawals of metals from warehouses, particularly the intent to accelerate the transfer of 2Mt of aluminium into the market. The company believes the rules will distort aluminium markets further, reduce transparency and weaken the relevance of the LME for industrial users.
Base metals finished mostly higher on demand hopes as sales of US homes grew faster than expected in August. Gold futures rose sharply on perceived safe haven demand as concerns mount that US budget negotiations have stalled. US WTI crude oil fell as US crude oil inventories unexpectedly lifted last week. Over the past two weeks, hot-rolled band (HRB) steel prices have declined 2% and 1% in China and world export markets, respectively, remained flat in US and lifted 1% in Western Europe. Iron ore advanced 0.8% to USD133.80/t (CFR China).
Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is targeting 50Mtpa of steel output by 2025, in line with plans by India’s government to produce 300Mtpa of steel by 2025.
Jordan Cove LNG plans to make a final investment decision by the end of 2014 for a 6Mtpa LNG project located on the US west coast. The project is expected to start production by 1H19.
China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) has urged Chinese steel makers to reduce the amount of iron ore they purchase from longterm contracts in favour of spot markets.
Anglo American has sold its entire 6.1Mtpa Amapa iron ore mine in Brazil to Zamin Ferrous. The agreement comes after a landslide on 28 March destroyed Amapa’s ship-loading infrastructure.
Brazil’s minister of mines and energy expects the country’s new mining regulation framework to be approved by the end of the year.
"China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) has urged Chinese steel makers to reduce the amount of iron ore they purchase from longterm contracts in favour of spot markets."
interesting.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
"China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) has urged Chinese steel makers to reduce the amount of iron ore they purchase from longterm contracts in favour of spot markets."
India’s iron ore exports have declined 74% yoy from 24.3Mt to 6.3Mt in the first five months of the year – a significant support for higherthan- expected seaborne iron ore prices this year.
Base metals and crude oil benchmarks finished higher on demand hopes after US jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week. The better-than-expected US employment data pushed gold futures lower on the expectation the US Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus soon. Iron ore remained flat at USD133.80/t (CFR China).
China’s Tianjin Materials & Equipment Group has agreed to buy African Mineral’s share of Sierra Leone’s Tonkolili iron ore mine. The mine is targeting sales of 11–13Mtpa of iron ore in 2013.
AngloGold Ashanti and Independence Group’s Tropicana gold project in Australia began production ahead of schedule and within budget. The project is expected to annually produce 470–490koz.
US coking coal exporter, Xcoal Energy and Resources, said it is seeing a preference among buyers for longer-term coking coal contracts rather than spot prices.
The Australian Federal Court dismissed an appeal by an environmental protection group against the development of Whitehaven’s Maules Creek 6Mtpa coal project. The project is expected to begin production by 1Q15.
GDF SUEZ and Santos' Bonaparte 2.4Mtpa FLNG project will likely delay first production by one year to 2019 because of plans to delay the front end engineering design and final investment decision by one year.
South Korea’s utility sector consumed 1.4Mt of LNG in August, a 27.4% increase relative to last year. From January to August, South Korea’s utility sector consumed 11.3Mt of LNG, 8.9% higher than the same period last year.
Iron ore will be supported through the final quarter and into the first half of next year as a global surplus emerges only later in 2014, Morgan Stanley said in a forecast that contrasts with Citigroup Inc. (C)’s outlook.
Prices may average $125 a metric ton in the final three months of 2013 and $120 in the first quarter, Morgan Stanley analysts Joel Crane and Peter Richardson said in a report today. The steelmaking raw material will average $117 in 2014 and $114 in 2015, they said, describing the base-case price forecasts as above consensus.
The largest commodity cargo after oil entered a bull market in July as users in China replenished stockpiles that shrank in March to the lowest level since 2009. Citigroup said this week that it’s bearish in the short term, forecasting prices at $115 in three months on an expected surge in seaborne supply. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, said today that rising supplies will weigh on commodity prices.
“We forecast the market to remain undersupplied the first half of 2014 before shifting toward a modest oversupply in the second half,” Richardson and Crane said. “Until that imbalance arrives, the underlying commodity price will continue to carry a premium to reflect supply tightness.”
Iron ore with 62 percent content delivered to the Chinese port of Tianjin rose 0.8 percent to $133.80 a dry ton today, according to The Steel Index Ltd. Prices have rallied 21 percent from this year’s low on May 31 and averaged $132.48 since July 1.
Capacity Expansions
The global seaborne market is seen shifting to a surplus next year as producers from BHP and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) to Vale SA deliver capacity expansions to meet Chinese demand. The surplus will reach 82 million tons in 2014 and expand through 2017, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in July.
“The iron ore market has been far more robust for longer than we, and we suspect many others in the market, had expected,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts including Michael Lewis wrote in a report today, raising the fourth-quarter forecast 4.2 percent to $125. The outlook for next year was cut 4.3 percent to $110 as the market shifts to surplus, Deutsche Bank said.
Morgan Stanley forecast a deficit of 72 million tons this half, narrowing to 26 million tons in the first six months of next year and moving to 48 million ton surplus in the second half, according to the report. The increase in global supply will be driven by bigger mines in Australia, with Rio set to overtake Vale as the world’s top shipper, it said.
More Cargoes
Citigroup said it’s bearish over three months as Rio, BHP and Perth-based Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG) boost exports in the final quarter, while the resolution of logistical blockages in Brazil allows more cargoes. At the same time, import demand may soften, Citigroup said in reports on Sept. 23 and yesterday.
Increased supply has “exerted downward pressure on many commodity markets more recently and we expect this trend to continue over the short term,” BHP Chairman Jac Nasser said in the Melbourne-based company’s annual report today.
Rio expanded its Australian operations to 290 million tons of annual capacity, and is studying a further increase to 360 million tons. Fortescue Metals says it’s on track to boost capacity to 155 million tons by the end of the year.
Stockpiles in China came to 69.8 million tons in the week to Sept. 20, down from a seven-month high in the period ended Aug. 30, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development. Inventories are still 26 percent below a year earlier.
Iron ore can be measured in dry tons, or metric tons less moisture. At Tianjin port, moisture can account for 8 percent to 10 percent of the weight.
BHP Billiton has predicted the recent signs of economic improvement in the US will continue, in an upbeat assessment of the global economy.
Wow, I wonder if they would do my horiscope too? I met a girl today and she is the spitting image of my wife when my wife was much younger. I was debating if it would be appropriate to bonk this younger version but would really like to know the outcome of it all, say 12 months into the future.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
Wow, I wonder if they would do my horiscope too? I met a girl today and she is the spitting image of my wife when my wife was much younger. I was debating if it would be appropriate to bonk this younger version but would really like to know the outcome of it all, say 12 months into the future.
we all know this doesn't fit with your world view, it's ok you don't need to try derail the thread with imaginary tales of women who would come anywhere near you.
i'm sorry didn't you run away from WA because you thought housing was going to crash only to watch it climb 7% and iron ore remain above $130/t?
the only one having their arse handed to them these days is you.
Fuck your delusional has no bounds !!
As far as my PPOR GOES it looks like I got out just before or right on the peak numb nuts !!
Additionally your a fucken liar you know what my call on iron ore is & I have been spot on thus far !
Pig Iron
28 Sep 2013, 08:30 PM
we all know this doesn't fit with your world view, it's ok you don't need to try derail the thread with imaginary tales of women who would come anywhere near you.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy