Tue Sep 10, 2013 5:19am EDT By Manolo Serapio Jr and Silvia Antonioli
SINGAPORE/LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - With China's insatiable appetite for iron ore cooling alongside a slowing economy, once in-demand traders of the steelmaking raw material face a new reality: fewer financial perks and tougher resume requirements.
Anyone without a network of connections in top market China need not apply. And the days of guaranteed bonuses to attract the best talent are largely over. Just two years ago, iron ore traders were the envy of even investment bankers, a famously well-paid breed of financial players.
"Two years ago, banks were all over the market. If you could spell iron ore, they wanted you in their team," said Paul French, the London-based global head of commodities at recruiting firm Global Sage.
Now, with iron ore prices retreating from a record near $200 a tonne in 2011 to $134.80, recruiters say the phones are not ringing like they used to.
"I haven't had a requirement for an iron ore trader for some time. Eighteen months ago we were regularly asked about it and I don't think we've been asked about it in the last 12 months," said Charles Crichton, Asia general manager at UK-based Commodity Appointments.
"The boom of iron ore is not there at the moment to justify paying someone a large amount of money in order to get them across the line because they're never going to make it back for you."
Iron ore became the new pot of gold when a shift away from four decades of annual pricing to a shorter, spot-based system in 2010 opened the door to more players.
At the same time, stimulus-led economic growth in China after the global financial crisis helped ramp up demand for the raw material, driving its price to an all-time high in February 2011.
Traders of the raw material, the commodity most closely linked to China's fortunes, became among the best paid and most sought after in the trading community.
While the basic salaries are mostly unchanged, the performance-related bonuses are on average lower than they used to be and guaranteed bonuses are now a rarity, recruiters said.
The average annual compensation at banks and trading houses for a mid-level iron ore trader is a basic salary in the range of $150,000-$200,000 plus an average bonus of 10 percent of the profit the trader makes for a company, according to a recruiter.
A top role such as global head of iron ore at a bank could fetch a salary of about $400,000, and a bonus including cash and stock of as much as $1.5-$2 million.
SHAKEOUT IN THE RANKS
As China's economic growth has slowed in the past two years, iron ore prices have dropped. In September 2012, they slumped to a three-year low of $86.70 a tonne. This year, China is targeting GDP growth of 7.5 percent, the slowest in 23 years.
And with no other country coming close to being able to absorb the slack left by China, iron ore prices risk years of decline as a major oversupply swamps demand, with some forecasting prices to be cut in half by 2015.
Banks globally are moving away from commodities trading due to regulatory pressure and shrinking revenues, leading to a pool of surplus traders and a shakeout in the ranks.
Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank steel trader Geoff Arnold left the German bank. Tom Baldwin, the bank's iron ore trader, has also left to join BTG Pactual, sources said.
Two iron ore traders at Macquarie have left to join the mining division of top steelmaker ArcelorMittal, although the Australian bank says it is still committed to trade iron ore, according to industry sources. ArcelorMittal and Macquarie declined to comment.
JPMorgan said in July it would seek strategic alternatives for its physical oil, gas, power and metals trading division, and Morgan Stanley is said to be exploring options for its commodities business. French bank Natixis said last month it has agreed to sell its London-based commodities brokerage to Chinese brokerage GF Securities.
The changed landscape means iron ore traders are finding themselves in a buyer's market.
"When the banks came in they were able to pay traders a two-year guaranteed bonus. That was common and now it is really hard to get," said Richard Usher at London-based dry bulk commodity recruiter CFI search.
TRADING FIRMS WEIGH SITUATION
To be sure, major trading companies such as Cargill and Trafigura are still in a hiring mode. Cargill, which trades around 50 million tonnes of iron ore a year, is looking to add two to three more staff in its physical trading business that already employs 13-15 people in China and Singapore, according to a source familiar with the company's plans.
And in the past year, two of the world's biggest oil traders, Vitol and Mercuria, have expanded into base metals.
But even trading companies are reassessing the situation given the increasing challenges in China.
UK's Stemcor, the world's largest independent steel trader, for instance, is restructuring its business and cutting some jobs in response to weak market conditions
Iron ore traders may still be able to secure jobs today that pay a basic annual salary of $150,000-$200,000, but only those with 5-6 years of work experience and a network of buyers in China, said a Shanghai-based trader.
"Today you need to have people who are very well connected. If you have China-related experience then you have good demand, if you don't then you're dead meat," the trader said.
China has vowed to fix its chronic air pollution problem by reducing its reliance on coal, boosting the use of nuclear power and natural gas and making air quality a key measure of local government performance.
The State Council, China’s cabinet, released a detailed plan on Thursday that aims to overhaul the country’s energy mix so that coal accounts for less than 65 per cent by 2017, down from just under 70 per cent.
To achieve that, the government said it would cut coal consumption and stop approving new coal-fired power plants in three key areas: Beijing and Tianjin in the country’s north, the Yangtze River delta around Shanghai and the Pearl River delta in Guangdong.
The plan’s release comes just a day after Premier Li Keqiang told high-level participants at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, north-eastern China, that environmental protection ranked alongside economic reform on his list of priorities. He said the government would use an “iron fist” to shut highly polluting and outdated factories.
…According to the plan, companies with poor environmental track records will be prevented from listing or raising finance. And local government officials will be judged on the improvement or deterioration of a province’s air quality. And the top 10 and worst 10 cities, in terms of air pollution, will be published in a list every month.
Gold futures plunged on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus after US jobless claims fell last week to their lowest level since April 2006. Base metals finished mostly lower on demand concerns after Euro-area industrial output fell more than expected in July. Crude oil benchmarks lifted as US and Russia continue talks to resolve tensions in Syria, heightening geopolitical and crude oil supply risks in the Middle East. Iron ore rose by 0.1% to USD135.20/t (CFR China).
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the 12 nations that comprise OPEC decreased crude oil production by 0.26mb/d to 30.51mb/d in August. The decrease reflects a decline in Libyan output that was partially offset by Saudi Arabia pumping the most crude oil in 32 years. The IEA also upgraded demand forecasts for crude oil by 70kb/d to 92mb/d in 2014 as the world economy recovers. The agency also reiterated that OPEC will need to produce less crude oil next year as supply grows strongly in US and Canada.
Rio Tinto has closed a portion of its Bingham Canyon copper mine in US. An earlier landslide in April 2013 was estimated to reduce the mine’s copper output by 100kt this year. The mine produced 163kt of copper and 279koz of gold in 2012.
Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS) announced that it has completed a project to upgrade coal-shipping capacity at its Newcastle port to 145Mtpa.
The iron ore production capacity at NMDC, India’s largest iron ore miner, is likely to decline from 12Mtpa to 7Mtpa, as the company implements recommendations from the Central Empowered Committee of the Supreme Court.
Base metals and gold futures declined on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus in a meeting to begin on 17 September, following the improvement in US economic, manufacturing and employment data over the past month. Crude oil benchmarks fell on lower geopolitical and crude oil supply risks, as talks continued between US and Russia to find a diplomatic solution in Syria. Recent reports indicate that the US and Russia have agreed on a plan to eliminate Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons by mid- 2014. Iron ore fell 0.5% to USD134.50/t (CFR China), while thermal coal rose by 1.3% w/w to 77.73/t (FOB Newcastle).
Glencore Xstrata has signalled interest in developing an iron ore mine with Zanaga Iron ore in the Republic of Congo. The mine is expected to initially produce as much as 14Mtpa of iron ore.
The Indian state of Karnataka has cancelled leases for 51 iron ore mining companies on the orders of the Supreme Court as India cracks down on illegal mining.
The total number of drill rigs deployed onshore in the US rose from 1,767 to 1,768 last week. Rigs deployed in oil plays fell from 1,365 to 1,361, while rigs deployed in gas plays rose from 394 to 401.
A labour strike, which began in late July, at Drummond’s coal operations in Colombia has ended following government intervention. The company exported 26Mtpa of coal last year.
The Chinese government has announced that it will add a 3% tax to imports of low-quality lignite coal. The tax will largely impact thermal coal imports from Indonesia.
China’s crude iron ore production lifted 11.4% y/y to 129.8Mt in August, the largest monthly level in 2013. Ore grades can be as low as 17%. Pig iron output lifted 11.5% y/y to 59.9Mt in August, while crude steel output rose by 12.9% y/y to 66.3Mt.
Commodity prices fell on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will decide to taper stimulus measures at the end of its meeting this week. Gold futures also declined as the US consumer price index rose less than expected in August, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an inflation hedge. Crude oil benchmarks also continued to fall on lower crude oil supply risks after the US and Russia agreed on a plan to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons. Iron ore decreased 2.2% to USD131.10/t (CFR China).
India’s gold demand is expected to weaken during the main festival and wedding season (August to November) relative to last year as weak economic growth deters discretionary spending and central bank and government measures limit the availability of gold.
Libya has signalled plans to make oil exploration more attractive to foreign companies as the nation tries to boost its crude oil supply. The next bidding round for exploration rights in Libya is mid-2014.
Taiwan’s thermal coal imports rose by 7.3% y/y to 4.04Mt in July. Hard coking coal imports fell by 26.8% y/y to 508kt.
South Korea’s metallurgical coal imports lifted 24.6% y/y to 2.67Mt in August, while the country’s thermal coal imports advanced 1.1% y/y to 8.61Mt.
South Korea’s LNG imports rose by 40.2% y/y to 3.27Mt in August, while the average price declined 5.6% y/y to USD 15.76/mmbtu.
Tokyo Electric Power Company’s (TEPCO) thermal coal consumption increased 95.4% y/y to 764kt in August. While LNG demand rose by 4.2% to 2.17Mt, crude and fuel oil consumption declined 43.2% y/y and 38.7% y/y, respectively.
ONE of Gladstone's LNG projects is talking up local job opportunities once it begins operation, in a bid to allay concerns about an end-of-construction slump.
Next year will see 2000 jobs in construction on QCLNG cut to 200 operational workers.
Quote:
The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association chief David Byers said a high-cost local environment and the emergence of new LNG competitors in East Africa, North America and elsewhere were making it much harder to win market share and attract investment.
Anyone who has ever lived in a resource town is familiar with this cycle of boom and bust - for every 10 people it takes to build new mines, plants, export facilties etc during the investment phase, it only takes 1 to run it once the investment phase is complete.
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