Christopher Joye: You should be long housing right now, but beware regulatory risks; Aussie house price growth is accelerating, 8% annualised rate, way above wages growth
For a guy with a house in Melbourne, one in Auckland, who plays the forex markets, buys shares in the Nikkei, and goes long and short on Gold ETF's you sure have a strange way of alerting everyone else to risk whilst accepting it yourself.
You and Nouriel didn't invent risk, it pre-dates both of you.
Catweasel say there the big difference between a those who a accept a risk and a consequence,
and the mouse.
There are two sides to the risk in an OO house purchase.
There is the risk in buying, and there is the risk in not buying.
People such as David Collyer point to the downside risk but completely ignore the upside risk. Many of his disciples will curse him for that oneday.
What is your analysis of the upside risk, for those who want to buy a house for their family, and probably will at some point in the future, or do you deny that there is upside risk for those who procrastinate.
Feel free to analyse the downside risk as well. It's best that they both be covered.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
There are two sides to the risk in an OO house purchase.
There is the risk in buying, and there is the risk in not buying.
People such as David Collyer point to the downside risk but completely ignore the upside risk. Many of his disciples will curse him for that oneday.
What is your analysis of the upside risk, for those who want to buy a house for their family, and probably will at some point in the future, or do you deny that there is upside risk for those who procrastinate.
Feel free to analyse the downside risk as well. It's best that they both be covered.
Catweasel say it good for mouse to understand a directional of a risk.
But mouse think on individual basis.
Somewhere it believe that mouse house will take care of it in its old age.
Almost provide it with riches like it see over a past the 20 years.
But this the psychology.
Because mouse house purchaser in a 60s,70s can the never estimate what a riches lie in future for it.
It never the feel the fear.
It buy the mouse house to a live.
Quite a different in a 2013.
Where media poke and prod,
and mouse live the tortured exist
if not on the train.
But a 2013 white picket fence society is in the power,
but what does it know of future?
White picket mentality exist into a future like new paradigm?
It like safety blanket for mouse in a Australia because all it know.
Catweasel say it good for mouse to understand a directional of a risk.
But mouse think on individual basis.
Somewhere it believe that mouse house will take care of it in its old age.
Almost provide it with riches like it see over a past the 20 years.
But this the psychology.
Because mouse house purchaser in a 60s,70s can the never estimate what a riches lie in future for it.
It never the feel the fear.
It buy the mouse house to a live.
Quite a different in a 2013.
Where media poke and prod,
and mouse live the tortured exist
if not on the train.
But a 2013 white picket fence society is in the power,
but what does it know of future?
White picket mentality exist into a future like new paradigm?
It like safety blanket for mouse in a Australia because all it know.
Good call on the 60's and 70's buyers not being able to foresee the future, but what if the direction doesn't change and we become a nation of landlords and tenants? It wouldn't be the first time it's happened.
I agree a PPR is technically a liability on the books but is it so wrong for people to have the dream?
What is [Catweasel's] analysis of the upside risk, for those who want to buy a house for their family, and probably will at some point in the future, or do you deny that there is upside risk for those who procrastinate.
Feel free to analyse the downside risk as well. It's best that they both be covered.
Really, who cares about Catweasel's opinion of risk, up or down?
His pronouncements are always couched in obfuscating gobbledygook, and as you've pointed out, his apparent advice to "the mice" is at odds with his (self-stated) personal investment strategy.
I left him on ignore long ago. Let me know if he ever gets tired of his schtick, and becomes a real contributor instead.
Ah - but on a Quantitative Summer or on a Quantitative fall? That is the question Mr Cat.
Edit - as to your question Peter, I guess you need to ask yourself how many times in history have houses gone ballistic in the whole country at the same time, (assuming MIW's theory that if you miss one state you can hop onto another), and then look at the chances of this happening. It is a very real risk. The question is - how great a risk is it? You also need to look at the ability to sell a house when prices start to fall, and the ability to buy a house when prices start to rise. These are very very different things. I doubt anyone can give you an answer. But you can get an appreciation.
What is [Catweasel's] analysis of the upside risk, for those who want to buy a house for their family, and probably will at some point in the future, or do you deny that there is upside risk for those who procrastinate.
Feel free to analyse the downside risk as well. It's best that they both be covered.
Really, who cares about Catweasel's opinion of risk, up or down?
His pronouncements are always couched in obfuscating gobbledygook, and as you've pointed out, his apparent advice to "the mice" is at odds with his (self-stated) personal investment strategy.
I left him on ignore long ago. Let me know if he ever gets tired of his schtick, and becomes a real contributor instead.
True, but I don't put anyone on ignore - ever. One day they might say something that makes sense, and then I'll miss the only pearl of wisdom that they will ever drop.
newjez
3 Sep 2013, 04:09 PM
Edit - as to your question Peter, I guess you need to ask yourself how many times in history have houses gone ballistic in the whole country at the same time, (assuming MIW's theory that if you miss one state you can hop onto another), and then look at the chances of this happening. It is a very real risk. The question is - how great a risk is it? You also need to look at the ability to sell a house when prices start to fall, and the ability to buy a house when prices start to rise. These are very very different things. I doubt anyone can give you an answer. But you can get an appreciation.
newjez - an investor can look elsewhere if prices in area "A" have gone beyond expectations and they are no longer attractive. But if a family want a house in area "A" because they work around there and their children go to school nearby, then buying in another state purely as an investment might not suit them.
It gets a bit tiresome when a guy who thinks he is a cat and considers that no one else is as clever as him, and makes that point by calling everyone else a mouse, makes the same joke everyday (albeit variations of the one joke) with everyone who makes any comments that he sees a downside risk in, without ever seeing any risk on the otherside.
If he was a risk analyst I would have to dismiss him, because he would never ever get anything done at all. If I wanted the risk philosophy of a piece of stone I would listen to a piece of stone. What I want is a human who is susceptible to error but still gets 9 out of 10 calls right. Then I can learn from the good calls and the errors, but I can't learn anything from a call to be wary of the downside risk but ignore the upside. If everyone ignored the upside then no one would ever do anything, how is that an advantage?
True, but I don't put anyone on ignore - ever. One day they might say something that makes sense, and then I'll miss the only pearl of wisdom that they will ever drop.
Like that dead professor and his pitch-drop experiment!!
I'm with you now. :pop:
(Though I'm a little doubtful that your patience with catweasel will prove anywhere near as rewarding...)
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