Christopher Joye: You should be long housing right now, but beware regulatory risks; Aussie house price growth is accelerating, 8% annualised rate, way above wages growth
the narrative is always controlled and always has been but I wouldn't call this lipstick on a pig.
Things could turn sour but they don't necessarily have to.
Having a look at some other nations i do see plenty of pigs with lipstick so by comparison i'd say we are doing ok.
I suspect we will avoid recession at least until we reach our destination of turning Canadian, eh
say something funny about someone - make us laugh Cat
One the problem with narratives masquerade as prophecy is mouse ability to pick through construction. Tendency to accept conjecture as prophecy like wade through creek of crocodile believing it wear invisible cloak to protect itself. Every the one want joyealicious interpret to do the actualize. Nothing the unusual of it.
Apart from the suggestion to go long. We face unprecendented ageing headwinds and any prediction must be weighted up against the bank of Int settlements who project asset headwinds for many decades to come. So, who do you trust?
I assume you are referring to the following BIS report which detailed the headwinds;
The same report states that the headwinds do "not imply real asset price declines".
Quote:
In sum, this paper found that ageing is likely to affect future asset prices substantially negatively, though asset price declines, let alone a meltdown, are unlikely.
Quote:
Using the estimated coefficients and global population forecasts, asset prices would face headwinds up to a full percentage point. This headwind is substantial, but based on historical returns would not imply real asset price declines.
..and one particular point addressed at demographic doomers like Pauk:
Quote:
Of course, these results need to be read with appropriate caveats. Long run projections, particularly demographic ones, can be mistaken. In Schumpeter’s (1943) words: “Forecasts of future populations, from those of the seventeenth century on, were practically always wrong.”
..and
Quote:
House prices can grow substantially in spite of strong demographic tailwinds (Graph 5). Some country examples are especially instructive. The United Kingdom experienced one of the highest price gains in spite of the tiny negative demographic contribution. Italy and Korea enjoyed strong house price growth in spite of substantial demographic headwinds. This illustrates the strong role of other, non-demographic factors. In particular, the graph shows that demographic headwinds do not necessarily translate into real house price declines.
Quote:
Most importantly, long run projections and estimates should be treated very cautiously as their track record is dismal.
All of those quotes are from the BIS. So, who do you trust? The BIS or a doomer?
Apart from the suggestion to go long. We face unprecendented ageing headwinds and any prediction must be weighted up against the bank of Int settlements who project asset headwinds for many decades to come. So, who do you trust?
haha that would be one expensive long.
I dont think an ageing population will affect Australia much, especially not int he short to medium term. People not only live longer, they work longer. And a big chunk of immigration is young.
Another good month for AFG without FTB's. Other states were also very strong for investors.
Quote:
1 IN 2 NSW HOME LOANS FOR INVESTORS: AFG MORTGAGE INDEX
49.5% of all home loans processed in NSW last month were for investors, according to AFG, Australia's largest mortgage broker. This is the highest level of investor activity the company has ever recorded for any state.
Investor participation across the nation was generally high. Investors comprised 36.7% of new home loans processed in VIC, 35.8% in QLD, 32.9% in SA and 28.4% in WA.
August was a bumper month for AFG, which processed $3,613 million in finance - slightly more than the record-breaking figure of $3,608 million recorded in May this year. AFG has 10% of the total home loan market (Source: ABS and AFG data) and overall trends it reports are usually confirmed by ABS statistics six weeks later.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
He was saying don't trust ABS stats, never, ever and within 5 mins was posting ABS stats as proof a few days ago.
Thanks Zaph. No, I was stating whether you should place faith in the interpretation of the data from Joyce or the bank of International Settlements. CJ never seems impartial to me and seems to think that house price inflation above wage growth is a good thing. On this, I and many disagree.
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