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Outer suburbs stretched to breaking point: Melbourne bursting at the seams as population booms; Melbourne's population could pass 5 million by 2025
Topic Started: 1 Sep 2013, 06:29 PM (3,090 Views)
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Melbourne bursting at the seams as population booms

August 31, 2013
Tim Colebatch

Melbourne's population is swelling by 2 per cent a year, adding more than 900,000 people since this century began - and putting it on track to be a city of 8 million people by 2050.

The Bureau of Statistics estimates that in mid-2012, the city's population was about to hit 4.25 million, after six boom years in which it grew by almost half a million.

Recent bureau figures imply that Melbourne today is home to 4.35 million people - and 27 per cent bigger than the city it was at the start of 2000.

If growth continues at that rate, Melbourne's population would pass 5 million by 2025, overtake Sydney by 2037, and reach 8 million by 2049.

The booming population growth raises serious doubts about the Napthine government's plans to build only one major infrastructure project at a time, and avoid new debt.

With a rapidly growing population squeezing into road and rail systems that are barely growing at all, this would intensify the strain on the city's infrastructure, leading to increased congestion on the roads and overcrowding on trains.

Most of Melbourne's growth is in the outer suburbs. The bureau reports that South Morang had the biggest population growth of any suburb in Australia, growing by 500 people a month over the five years to 2012. Point Cook was second, Tarneit third and Craigieburn fourth.

The population of the city of Melbourne grew by 5138 in 2011-12 alone, and has more than doubled since New Year's Day 2000 to 105,360. That included 23,867 people living in the city centre itself, 13,505 in Southbank and 6640 in Docklands - 44,012 between them, compared with just 1796 in 1992.

But the bureau's figures show populations are growing in almost every suburb of Melbourne, and in most towns of any size across Victoria. Ballarat had almost 100,000 people by mid-2012, its growth rate matching Melbourne's, with Bendigo not far behind.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-bursting-at-the-seams-as-population-booms-20130830-2swds.html
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willy_nilly
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Mmm.... The abs report 1.8% for Victoria.

http://www.melbourne.org.au/docs/population_growth.pdf
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willy_nilly
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Melbourne may get bigger, but it certainly will be getting older...

"As in other high income jurisdictions a prolonged period of low fertility has meant that Australia has an ageing population. However, this ageing is exacerbated in Australia by the impact of the post war baby boom generation, which is poised to move into the older age groups. They represent 25.7 percent of the total population and 41.8 percent of the workforce. As they age and retire from the workforce there are two very important impacts:
 Baby boomers departing the workforce will outnumber young Australians transitioning from education to work. Hence, current dependency levels will worsen.
 Eventually, baby boomers will make heavy demands on the health and aged care systems.
A fundamental point is that over the next two decades much population growth in Australia will be in the older age groups. Even with significant migration and maintaining fertility and current levels there will be little, if any, net growth in the younger working ages. It becomes apparent that we therefore need to maintain growth to counterbalance the massive growth of the older population.
The passage of the baby boom generation into retirement is not a prediction – it is fact. In the next two decades 40 percent of the current workforce will retire and without immigration there will not be sufficient numbers of young people entering the workforce to replace them, let alone provide new workers. Immigration alone is not a solution to the ageing issue. There are a large number of policy initiatives which will be required to cope with the ageing of baby boomers if severe economic problems are to be avoided. These are summarised in Table 8.3. The United Nations has stressed that there is no single solution to counterbalance demographic ageing but only a combination of a battery of policies will be effective. The demographic element involves both fertility and migration. International migration will play a role in offsetting the effects of ageing but that impact is limited because immigrants themselves age. From the perspective of ageing then, international migration will play a role but only a contributory one. A similar situation in other advanced countries will mean that competition for high skill migrants, which is already intense, will strengthen over the next two decades."

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/publications/research/migration-in-australia/chapter-eight.pdf
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willy_nilly
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So when emigration and interstate migration is taken into account...

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mustard
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I’m an unhappy Sydneysider who has been planning to move down to Melbourne so I’m as much an example as anyone else. The reason for planning the move were/are:

1. Sydney feeling extremely unaffordable. $1m+ for just about any property anywhere worth living. *looks at watch* No, make that $1.1m+ now.

2. Sydney feeling extremely crowded. It’s total shitsville. The roads are a crawl everywhere.

3. Hopeless infrastructure.

4. Rude arseholes everywhere.

Reasons for moving to Melbourne:

1. It certainly has expensive housing, but you still get more for *slightly* less than Sydney.

2. A better planned and laid out city, so the assumption is that it has a better chance than Sydney of handling the extra load.

3. This is potentially the biggest one: the schools appear to be pretty decent down there. My wife is not native English and we want our daughter to go to a bilingual school down there. We found a public bilingual school which has no zone restrictions.

The big concern I have right now is that we could be potentially uprooting ourselves for nothing if Melbourne ends up shittier than Sydney. I think a lot of people are making a similar move to what I am planning for similar reasons, however if too many people do this it will negate all the benefits pretty quickly.
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mel
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mustard
3 Sep 2013, 08:48 AM
I’m an unhappy Sydneysider who has been planning to move down to Melbourne so I’m as much an example as anyone else. The reason for planning the move were/are:

1. Sydney feeling extremely unaffordable. $1m+ for just about any property anywhere worth living. *looks at watch* No, make that $1.1m+ now.

2. Sydney feeling extremely crowded. It’s total shitsville. The roads are a crawl everywhere.

3. Hopeless infrastructure.

4. Rude arseholes everywhere.

Reasons for moving to Melbourne:

1. It certainly has expensive housing, but you still get more for *slightly* less than Sydney.

2. A better planned and laid out city, so the assumption is that it has a better chance than Sydney of handling the extra load.

3. This is potentially the biggest one: the schools appear to be pretty decent down there. My wife is not native English and we want our daughter to go to a bilingual school down there. We found a public bilingual school which has no zone restrictions.

The big concern I have right now is that we could be potentially uprooting ourselves for nothing if Melbourne ends up shittier than Sydney. I think a lot of people are making a similar move to what I am planning for similar reasons, however if too many people do this it will negate all the benefits pretty quickly.
I can remember a time many years ago when framily members (tradies) wouldn't keep quiet about how many Sydneysiders were building homes from volume builders in melbourne. I feel moving to a cheaper area can be a great way to become debt free for the right person (I love QLD over most other states though!) From the sound of your post a regional center might also work? (Barring the bi lingual school)

Some Regional areas have come a long way, often with better services than metropolitan areas for less than half the price.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

mel
3 Sep 2013, 12:08 PM
I can remember a time many years ago when framily members (tradies) wouldn't keep quiet about how many Sydneysiders were building homes from volume builders in melbourne. I feel moving to a cheaper area can be a great way to become debt free for the right person (I love QLD over most other states though!) From the sound of your post a regional center might also work? (Barring the bi lingual school)

Some Regional areas have come a long way, often with better services than metropolitan areas for less than half the price.
I think Australia could benefit from about 3 new cities.
And encourage younger people to move there.
The key to this is real demand.
Mega cities benefit the rich only.
Brothels full of rich old men fucking poor young girls with stars in their eyes.
Trying to make it in the big city.
Peter fron Gnarabup
:pop:
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Investors warned to avoid buying in Melbourne

By Jennifer Duke
Tuesday, 03 September 2013

Investors are being warned to steer clear of the Melbourne market, with poor yields and an oversupply in the foreseeable future making other areas more attractive.

Pointing to a large number of potential land releases across Melbourne, and the mass of units still in the pipeline, wHeregroup buyer’s agent Todd Hunter told Property Observer that he is steering clear of Victoria’s capital.

“It was heading into an oversupply about five years ago,” Hunter said. “[Properties] are only achieving 3% to 5% yield and that’s terrible. You may as well have your money in the bank in a cash account.”

BIS Shrapnel’s Angie Zigomanis agreed with this analysis, noting that there’s still a large pipeline of units under construction that have yet to come through to completion due to longer lead times.

“The flipside with land is that it can be switched on very quickly [in Melbourne],” said Zigomanis.

“Compared to three or four years ago, there are more estates are coming onto the market so there’s not as likely to be as much pressure on prices from a supply perspective.”

With auction clearance rates improving, interstate investors might be under the assumption that the market is picking up as well, however this isn’t the case, he said.

“It’s a bit misleading in relation to looking at the market from a broad point of view. Most auctions take place in the inner middle suburbs … and people in middle Melbourne are more secure and confident in employment than those on the fringes.”

The unit market is that tipped to move more into oversupply even while from a demand perspective the picture isn’t quite as bleak with population growth still strong, he said.

Mr Hunter also warned that the Sydney market also didn’t present best buying, noting it is too hot, with the best investment opportunities currently presenting themselves in Western Australia and Queensland.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/victoria/investors-warned-to-avoid-buying-in-melbourne/2013090264736
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Outer suburbs stretched to breaking point

September 4, 2013
Aisha Dow

Severe growing pains in Melbourne's fringe suburbs have led to calls for council population targets and for an independent body to manage infrastructure planning in the city's growth areas.

New Bureau of Statistics data confirm that Melbourne is home to the four postcodes with the fastest population growth in the nation, with South Morang, Point Cook and Tarneit more than doubling their populations in the five years to 2012. South Morang has grown by more than 38,000 people since 2001 - the size of a regional town.

But the sprawling housing developments have not always been accompanied by train lines, roads and schools.

Carolyn Whitzman, associate professor of urban planning at Melbourne University, has studied the south-western municipality of Wyndham and said the residents of the nation's fastest-growing council area faced tremendous work-life balance issues.

She said one-third travelled more than two hours to and from work each day and the area would need one or two new schools every year for the next 20 years to keep up with current growth. It could take decades to make up for the lack of infrastructure spending by governments, she warned.

It is a similar situation north of the city in South Morang and Mernda in the municipal area of Whittlesea, which needs $764 million spent on roads alone. A higher level of domestic violence has been linked to the exhausting commutes faced by residents, and 29 football teams are forced to share the same oval.

The state government says it has reforms under way, including the better use of mandatory contributions from developers.

Dr Whitzman said councils, including those in inner and middle-city suburbs, should be given population targets to ensure more growth occurred in areas with established infrastructure.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/outer-suburbs-stretched-to-breaking-point-20130903-2t3k0.html
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Bardon
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mustard
3 Sep 2013, 08:48 AM
I’m an unhappy Sydneysider who has been planning to move down to Melbourne so I’m as much an example as anyone else. The reason for planning the move were/are:

1. Sydney feeling extremely unaffordable. $1m+ for just about any property anywhere worth living. *looks at watch* No, make that $1.1m+ now.

2. Sydney feeling extremely crowded. It’s total shitsville. The roads are a crawl everywhere.

3. Hopeless infrastructure.

4. Rude arseholes everywhere.

Reasons for moving to Melbourne:

1. It certainly has expensive housing, but you still get more for *slightly* less than Sydney.

2. A better planned and laid out city, so the assumption is that it has a better chance than Sydney of handling the extra load.

3. This is potentially the biggest one: the schools appear to be pretty decent down there. My wife is not native English and we want our daughter to go to a bilingual school down there. We found a public bilingual school which has no zone restrictions.

The big concern I have right now is that we could be potentially uprooting ourselves for nothing if Melbourne ends up shittier than Sydney. I think a lot of people are making a similar move to what I am planning for similar reasons, however if too many people do this it will negate all the benefits pretty quickly.

Mustard, don't get too uptight worrying about how Melbourne will develop in the future. Make the move now, you wont regret it and Melbourne will always be ahead of Sydney for the reasons that you mentioned plus some more.
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