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Homeownership & Household Formation ON THE RISE in Australia but delayed for sociodemographic reason; Household formation delayed until later in life because MARRIAGE is the key determinant
Topic Started: 23 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM (6,513 Views)
willy_nilly
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"household formation rates are on the rise, which points to improvements in affordability."
No it does not.
QED
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Shadow
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willy_nilly
26 Aug 2013, 12:59 PM
"household formation rates are on the rise, which points to improvements in affordability."
No it does not.
QED
Why do you believe an increasing proportion of the population can afford to establish new households?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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willy_nilly
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Shadow
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willy_nilly
26 Aug 2013, 01:11 PM
Irrelevant image
You're changing the subject.

I was asking why you believe an increasing proportion of the population are able to afford to establish new households?

What are your theories on how they're increasingly able to afford to do this, if not due to improved affordability?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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willy_nilly
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Shadow
26 Aug 2013, 01:15 PM
You're changing the subject.

I was asking why you believe an increasing proportion of the population are able to afford to establish new households?

What are your theories on how they're increasingly able to afford to do this, if not due to improved affordability?
Shadow
As you have detailed. They are not. They are the rise of lone occupants which matches the decrease in outright ownership rates and the growing unaffordability for the younger generations. Affordability has noting at all to do with the rise in households and you know it. In fact, it is the opposite.

I have given all here enough data to disprove your claims, so move on old chap...
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Shadow
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willy_nilly
26 Aug 2013, 01:24 PM
They are not.

Affordability has noting at all to do with the rise in households and you know it. In fact, it is the opposite.
If they're not able to afford to establish these households, then why is the ABS data showing them establishing new households at an ever increasing rate?

Quote:
 
In fact, it is the opposite.
The opposite? You're saying the rise in people affording to establish new households is evidence of a decline in housing affordability? I'd love to hear some reasoning behind that one.

Quote:
 
I have given all here enough data to disprove your claims, so move on old chap...
My claim is that increasing numbers of people can afford to establish new households, which is backed up by the ABS data which shows increasing numbers of people establishing new households. You haven't provided any data to disprove this.
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2013, 01:37 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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skamy
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willy_nilly
26 Aug 2013, 12:31 PM
"The increase in the number of people living alone is related to the ageing of the population, increases in divorce and separation, and the delaying of marriage."

lol..."lone households can afford to establish households on their own"
Yep and there we leave it folks for all to see. Shadow thinks that lone occupants, kids, can afford to buy a house today on a single wage.

lol..."lone households can afford to establish households on their own"
Yep and there we leave it folks for all to see. Shadow thinks that lone occupants, kids, can afford to buy a house today on a single wage.
Of course they can afford to buy a home. Maybe not in the centre of our big prosperous cities, but there are plenty of starter homes available from $300k to $500K. Kids cannot buy on their own in most big cities, but they can do what we all did and buy the areas that are affordable to them. Young buyers are seeing some great capital gains at the moment, plenty of kids stuck their neck out and took a gamble on Sydney's Western suburbs and they are way ahead of their peers who were unfortunately persuaded to wait by unscrupulous doom and gloomers. (Buying on the outskirts of growing cities has paid off well for 100s of years)

It is almost impossible to pick the bottom of a downturn nor the top of a boom, and there are people who will be lucky or unlucky with timing. However, long term, for most years, prices will rise that is undisputable.

Edited by skamy, 26 Aug 2013, 01:36 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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willy_nilly
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Doom and gloom is house price inflation above wage growth.
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Elastic
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Shadow
26 Aug 2013, 12:30 PM
According to the ABS, the vast majority (up to three quarters) of people in lone households are under 75 years old...

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/FFA2A1097BB39BC2CA25773B00180533?OpenDocument

But as I said... it's good that these old people (as well as the larger category of under-75s) in lone households can afford to establish households on their own.
Even a larger majority of people in lone households are under 90 years of age.
It's an incredible statistic Shadow.

It's good news that elderly people can afford to still live in their home when their partner dies.
Edited by Elastic, 26 Aug 2013, 01:51 PM.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Shadow
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Elastic
26 Aug 2013, 01:50 PM
Even a larger majority of people in lone households are under 90 years of age.
Exactly. It pours cold water on Pauk's theory that all these lone households are old people, doesn't it.

Quote:
 
It's good news that elderly people can afford to still live in their home when their partner dies.
Agreed, although in such cases it wouldn't form a new household.
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2013, 01:54 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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