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Homeownership & Household Formation ON THE RISE in Australia but delayed for sociodemographic reason; Household formation delayed until later in life because MARRIAGE is the key determinant
Topic Started: 23 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM (6,515 Views)
miw
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zaph
24 Aug 2013, 12:10 PM
I keep a close eye on the streets around me, small sample, so far from scientific. In the last 4-6 months properties have been selling a lot more quickly (but still not real quick). There have been three auctions which have all sold at auction, or shortly after - unheard of for Brisbane and this area.
In the few suburbs I watch (and I watch units only, not houses), in the last few weeks I have noticed:

1) All the low-priced units that had sat on the market for months and months are gone.
2) The total number of listings is up on May/June, but the rate at which new listings arrive has gone up even faster - i.e. turnover seems higher
3) Asking prices don't seem to have changed much in general, but I haven't seen anything that looks very cheap in a while, and prices on 2x2 apts seems to be up a bit.
4) Stuff at the luxury end ($800k+) seems to be snapped up very quickly now if somewhat realistically priced. It was not moving at all 12 months ago. Still not all that many listings in this bracket though. It was hit really hard in 2011.

Also, a REA who specialises in the area and with whom I correspond on occasion boasted to me a couple of weeks ago that her average clearance was down to 3 weeks. Even allowing for a bit of a bullshit factor that is fast.

I think a lot of this activity is investors selling to each other - i.e. older investors are taking advantage of the liquidity and cashing out and new ones are trying to catch the bottom, but I could be wrong.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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willy_nilly
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miw
24 Aug 2013, 03:36 PM
In the few suburbs I watch (and I watch units only, not houses), in the last few weeks I have noticed:

1) All the low-priced units that had sat on the market for months and months are gone.
2) The total number of listings is up on May/June, but the rate at which new listings arrive has gone up even faster - i.e. turnover seems higher
3) Asking prices don't seem to have changed much in general, but I haven't seen anything that looks very cheap in a while, and prices on 2x2 apts seems to be up a bit.
4) Stuff at the luxury end ($800k+) seems to be snapped up very quickly now if somewhat realistically priced. It was not moving at all 12 months ago. Still not all that many listings in this bracket though. It was hit really hard in 2011.

Also, a REA who specialises in the area and with whom I correspond on occasion boasted to me a couple of weeks ago that her average clearance was down to 3 weeks. Even allowing for a bit of a bullshit factor that is fast.

I think a lot of this activity is investors selling to each other - i.e. older investors are taking advantage of the liquidity and cashing out and new ones are trying to catch the bottom, but I could be wrong.
Which postcode?
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miw
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willy_nilly
24 Aug 2013, 03:42 PM
Which postcode?
4066-68
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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willy_nilly
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miw
24 Aug 2013, 03:56 PM
4066-68
Cherry picking, I know, but still what is...

18 HOLMES ST, TOOWONG, QLD 4066
Sales History
Sale Amount: Sale Date: % Chg: Vendor: Sale Type: Area: Related:
$380,000 13/06/2013 -2.8% xxxx Agents Advice - Sale No
$391,000 05/03/2009 61.6% xxxx Normal Sale 0 m² No
$242,000 28/04/2004 30.8% xxxx Normal Sale 0 m² No
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willy_nilly
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Sober
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BullHawk
23 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM
Australian and international studies identify FORMAL MARRIAGE as the primary driver of home ownership and household formation.

At what rates for each? Please provide sources.

Quote:
 
Figures indicate home ownership and household formation not in decline but ON THE RISE at the macro level in Australia, yet deferred until later in life for sociodemographic reasons. That aligns with the studies.


At what rates for each? Please provide sources.

Quote:
 
Our young countrymen defer the formation of households until they marry later in life, but when they're ready to form those households, they're forming them faster than ever.

Posted Image

Posted Image


Your graphs, while interesting, do not actually tie household formation or median age at marriage to actual home-ownership rates at all.
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miw
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willy_nilly
24 Aug 2013, 04:20 PM
Cherry picking, I know, but still what is...

18 HOLMES ST, TOOWONG, QLD 4066
Sales History
Sale Amount:Sale Date:% Chg:Vendor:Sale Type:Area:Related:
$380,000 13/06/2013-2.8%xxxxAgents Advice - Sale No
$391,000 05/03/200961.6%xxxxNormal Sale0 m²No
$242,000 28/04/200430.8%xxxxNormal Sale0 m²No
Cherry-picked indeed. at least 2 other units in that block sold for from $355k-$375k this year.

Those price surprises me a bit because $380k is just over-priced for a 2/1 unit in Toowong, and if you look at the pictures of the block, it is no oil painting and the interior looks dated and idiosyncratic. Superior, better-located 2/1 units in Auchenflower were fetching $325-$350k this time last year. I would not be interested in buying a unit in that block for more than $325k now. If you look at the listings you'll still find quite a few better deals. If you looked in March, you would have found listings for only slightly inferior units to this with a 2-handle. In this area, very approximately and comparing like for like, St. Lucia ~= Auchenflower > Taringa > Toowong > Indooroopilly in terms of price.

As for the graphs, they aren't all that relevant to what I was saying. The mini surge in listings started mid-July, and the increase in turnover probably started about the same time (it's a bit hard to tell, because listings appear immediately but contract notification comes with quite a lag). There was a bit of an increase in turnover Sep/Oct last year but then things just got slower and slower until July, when things seemed to start speeding up again.

And I'll re-iterate that I haven't seen any big change in listing prices other than that the old, knock-down listings seem to have all disappeared.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Shadow
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peter fraser
24 Aug 2013, 01:19 PM
I had a few drinks with a Melbourne REA recently and she told me that she is getting 100% clearance at auctions, all well above the reserve.

I've know this person since I started school and it was a social occasion - so there is no reason for her to put any spin on the narrative. As you know it takes some months for these sales to filter through to the official data.
Sydney and Melbourne auction clearance rates are now consistently in the high 70s / low 80s, and sales volumes are rising.

Looks like more and more people are moving out to form new households at an accelerating rate.

So much for the 'affordability crisis' the bears have been going on about for years...

Posted Image
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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willy_nilly
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Shadow
1. Your charts clearly shows we have been overbuilding since 1960.
2. You ignore the rise in old lone occupants which is the major driver in the change in your bs chart.
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Shadow
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willy_nilly
26 Aug 2013, 11:50 AM
Your charts clearly shows we have been overbuilding since 1960.
They show we have been building enough homes keep prices sufficiently affordable that an increasing number of people can afford to establish new households.

If you want to call this 'overbuilding' that's up to you. Personally I think it's a good thing that houses are increasingly affordable and that more people can establish new households.

If we had built less homes then they would be less affordable.

Quote:
 
You ignore the rise in old lone occupants which is the major driver in the change in your bs chart
No, the ABS household formation chart actually includes those lone occupants, and personally I think it's good that homes are affordable enough for people to establish households on their own... a lot of bears here seem to think two incomes is mandatory, when that's obviously not the case.
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2013, 12:04 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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