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Brisbane Property Boom: 1645% growth in 35-years; Which generation has had it easier in the property market? Baby Boomers or Generation Y?
Topic Started: 22 Aug 2013, 03:20 PM (52,627 Views)
propertymogul
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Veritas
22 Aug 2013, 05:22 PM
And yet you still haven't a clue how many adults own homes compared to last year, or five years ago, or a decade ago, or 25 years ago.

Admit it. You don't know.

Stop obfuscating.
Exactly. Shadow you are making up your own statistics using your logic. Without proper data it is just your opinion. Just like the other day when you said that lower outright ownership is mainly due to offset accounts, no data, just your opinion but you state it as if it's fact.
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Shadow
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propertymogul
22 Aug 2013, 05:32 PM
Exactly. Shadow you are making up your own statistics using your logic. Without proper data it is just your opinion.
No, it's fact. If the number of households per head of population has increased, and the ownership rate has stayed the same, then the number of adult homeowners per head of population must also have increased. Basic math/logic. Try it.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Quote:
 
LOL, changing tack now that you have been roundly defeated.


That's right, keep lying, eventually you will be believed.

Quote:
 
Anything to avoid admitting you were wrong. This chart destroys your theory and you know it.


What was I wrong about and what is my theory?

FACT: The ABS home ownership data tells us nothing about the rate in change over time in the number of adults that own a home of their own, either as individuals or jointly, versus those who are in any other form of housing tenure.

Accept that is a fact and we can move on.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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propertymogul
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Shadow
22 Aug 2013, 05:35 PM
No, it's fact. If the number of households per head of population has increased, and the ownership rate has stayed the same, then the number of adult homeowners per head of population must also have increased. Basic math/logic. Try it.
No. Nothing basic about it. The concentration of ownership can change, for example the top 1% can change from owning 10% of the property to 30%. Your logic has no basis without proper data.
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Shadow
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Veritas
22 Aug 2013, 05:38 PM
FACT: The ABS home ownership data tells us nothing about the rate in change over time in the number of adults that own a home of their own
It doesn't attempt to - it tells us about the ownership status of dwellings.

But taken together with the household formation rate, we can see that more adults must own dwellings per head of population now than in the past.
propertymogul
22 Aug 2013, 05:39 PM
No. Nothing basic about it. The concentration of ownership can change, for example the top 1% can change from owning 10% of the property to 30%. Your logic has no basis without proper data.
No, it's not necessary to know that. If that was the case they would either have to keep their excess homes empty or rent them out. So we would either see a big jump in the unoccupied dwelling count (we haven't - it has stayed around 9-10% for 40 years), or we would see a big jump in the number of rented dwellings which would be reflected in the home ownership rate.

Try again.
Edited by Shadow, 22 Aug 2013, 05:46 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Bardon
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We started a a massive noisy party that is still going on now.


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Veritas
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It doesn't attempt to - it tells us about the ownership status of dwellings.


You are some piece of work.

You know that I know that it doesn't attempt to. So why are you making that point if not to create the impression (once again) that I don't understand the ABS methodology?

Quote:
 
But taken together with the household formation rate, we can see that more adults must own dwellings per head of population now than in the past.


But by how much? We don't know. That's the fucking point.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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mel
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propertymogul
22 Aug 2013, 03:35 PM
Had this debate with Sydneyite and Trojan.

The figures provided show that in 1978 a Brisbane house was 2.7x income, today it is 7.35x income. Did nothing to convince them that my parents generation had it much easier in terms of housing affordability. No point debating it further, I think it's obvious, but obviously they don't think so.
without even seeing another post in this thread i would suggest you focus 'blame' on the planners - new cities don't appear to be an option although there has been some murmuring of promoting regional centers as an option of late. :)
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Shadow
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Veritas
22 Aug 2013, 05:48 PM
But by how much? We don't know. That's the fucking point.
If you're so interested, why don't you work it out? I've given you all the information you need to perform the calculations.

1. Home ownership rate
2. Household formation rate
3. Population
4. Unoccupied dwellings count

All this information is available. If you were really interested you would be on excel now calculating the growth in adults per population owning property over time.

I could gather the data and chart it in under an hour.

But you are the one who is interested. So I challenge you to go do it.

But you won't, because you know you won't like the results.

So you'll sook and whinge and accuse me of 'obfuscation' instead.
Edited by Shadow, 22 Aug 2013, 05:55 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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mel
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stinkbug
22 Aug 2013, 03:57 PM
You're assuming that all other lifestyle costs are the same in real terms. They're not. That's actually one of the major reasons for the big increase.
how did you go with the solar panel thing yesterday?
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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