But you have not actually done so, have you? And in the absence of such an admission on your part, you are agreeing with my original assertion: "Shadow's core modus operandi is "never admit defeat"
So despite the fact that I have corrected you on your false assertion you chose to reiterate it.
Specks of sawdust and planks come to mind.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
The Economist tool doesn't have an "affordability index".
FHBs tend to have small deposits and borrow most of the money to buy a house. Thus affordability for FHBs is about the cost of repayments compared to their incomes, rather than the price to income ratio (which is anyway no higher now than it was 10 years ago).
The following chart thus presents affordability for people who require an 80% loan which is very typical for FHBs. The chart shows the percentage of household disposable income required for the repayments. It therefore represents affordability for FHBs.
The chart is a little out of date and repayment costs have now fallen further.
This seems to include investors so it is very skewed lower with all that activity. I mean how many first time buyers in the last 10 years spend only 20% of their income on their mortgage virtually noone. Shows how an average number can have no relevance to any group.
This seems to include investors so it is very skewed lower with all that activity. I mean how many first time buyers in the last 10 years spend only 20% of their income on their mortgage virtually noone. Shows how an average number can have no relevance to any group.
I think you should read the notes at the bottom of the chart! The figures are based on the loan repayments after 2 years, assuming only required payments have been made, for an 80% LVR loan taken against the national median priced home. it is not influenced one way or the other by the activity of investors in the market, other than indirectly based whatever impact investors might have on the median prices being acheived at any point in time.
This seems to include investors so it is very skewed lower with all that activity. I mean how many first time buyers in the last 10 years spend only 20% of their income on their mortgage virtually noone. Shows how an average number can have no relevance to any group.
It isn't an "average" and it isn't based on investors.
It's based on the repayments on an 80% loan for a median value house at each point in time expressed as a percentage of the household disposable income.
If anything, it probably overstates the repayments for FHBs. We know from ABS data (I'll show it if you ask) that FHBs on average purchase below median price houses and they have above average household incomes. The average repayment for FHBs is thus likely to be less than shown in the chart.
Thanks for getting the thread back on track after it was derailed.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
The Reserve Bank says home prices are likely to grow slowly, if at all, now that the low-inflation driven boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s has ended. The Reserve Bank warns that this slower housing market will lead to more periods when house prices are falling "We are pretty sure that the boom we saw in the early 2000s managed to end with a fizzle, not a bust. " "But we certainly can't rule out the possibility of a major housing downturn in the longer-term future."
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
The Reserve Bank says home prices are likely to grow slowly, if at all, now that the low-inflation driven boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s has ended. The Reserve Bank warns that this slower housing market will lead to more periods when house prices are falling "We are pretty sure that the boom we saw in the early 2000s managed to end with a fizzle, not a bust. " "But we certainly can't rule out the possibility of a major housing downturn in the longer-term future."
You forgot to add the bit about there would be little likelihood of a downturn until after another significant price boom.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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