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Fresh reading on economy shows US recovery gaining steam
Topic Started: 18 Aug 2013, 10:32 AM (5,040 Views)
herbie
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Dunno Ted ... Is the dude a bit of a 'hard head' or some such? :re:
Edited by herbie, 27 Sep 2013, 10:05 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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barns
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peter fraser
27 Sep 2013, 08:13 AM
I'm not sure about bankruptcy, but we used to say that 80% of new business will fail in the first two or three years. Many of those will pull the pin and resume life as an employee before they get to the bankruptcy stage, but in essence your mate is close to the money.

A lot of people have romantic dreams about their own coffee shop or restaurant or whatever. Small business stops being romantic when your spending time cleaning the dunnies in the restaurant and ensuring rodents don't get into the produce.

It's money that causes problems. Either a lack of it, or poor control, or failure to collect it from people they have sold goods or services to. Most successful small business owners have at some point come close to the edge and learnt from that experience. I take my hat off to the good ones, they deserve every dollar that they have earned.

We don't teach business principles in school in this country unless you get a degree, which is a shame, so most people know nothing when they start a business, or else they are over qualified. I believe that Centrelink run small business courses and they're probably useful.
It's not just controlling the costs, debtors, creditors and cashflow either, there is so much compliance required by the government.

You need (NSW) to register a company (in most cases), pay ASIC an annual review fee, register for an ABN with the ATO, track and pay PAYG and GST (usually each quarter for a small business), register with a superfund so that you can put super contributions for employees not otherwise allocated somewhere, pay super contributions each month, obtain and maintain workers comp insurance and calculate and pay payroll tax (if you wage bill is a certain level), annual tax returns and quarterly provisional tax.

These are independent of any industry specific requirements that pretty much all businesses have and in addition to any other personal structuring (such as the use of family trusts to hold shares).

So the average Joe with a cafe has to be across all that before he makes his first $3.20 coffee. That's hours and hours work before he even needs to worry about the fit-out, saving 6 months bond for the commercial premises, stock control, cleaning the dunnies, employees pilfering, marketing and paying the rent.

I'm just glad some people choose to do it.


“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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MMM
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Shadow
27 Sep 2013, 09:52 AM
MMM
27 Sep 2013, 09:21 AM
Unlike your northern beaches area of balgowlah, is it still cheaper than the 2004 prices we saw almost ten years ago shadow, not so good when your paying interest only for ten years to see prices go backwards instead of double like you were mindlessly hoping for.
Cheers Ted, yes, I should really have sold up in early 2012 and gone 'all in' on the gold bubble like yourself, then I too could have the pleasure of living in somebody else's shed right now, but I will try to learn from my mistake. Thank you for 'making into my educating' once again...

Posted Image
Look at your area we visited this stuff a while ago shown in link below.

maybe others would can see for themselves. you will notice that when interest rates drop down it has a zoom up, not long after it then collapses, so You will see some rise before further collapses thanks to dirt low rates and then when they cant go any lower or where off or when they rise you can see its a case of good luck. look at the prices of ten years ago in link below, this was when our economy was going good , no more doubling of prices evry seven years bs. that ship has long sailed , you want to show me a graph of sydney overall which includes houses from out west where houses are dirt cheap by comparison.

the same happened to US realestate , it bubbled up , when interest rates were dropped to record lows, but with theeconomy heading south and little to no chance of economic recovery , enjoy it while it lasts, the true fundamentals have gone from the market we once knew.

prices cannot simply keep doubling every seven years or so, completely unsustainable, as in the example I have given you guys before and will give you again. IF I was to employ you for a month and only one month ,say thirty days, thirty days only , paid you 1 cent on the first day and then doubled it evryday for the thirty days ,would you work for me, so on the first day you get paid 1 cent for the first day, 2 cents for the second day, 4 cents for the third day, 8 cents for the fouth days pay and so until the thirty days is up. it looks sustainable at first ,but soon becomes unsustainable, and ends up being over 20 million dollars for the month, over 40 million for a 31 day month. sameprincviples apply here shadow, simply unsustainable, throw in a falling and failing economy that is now also unsustainable along with wage increases , not to mention along side emerginging economies and its good luck. our minimum wage is over double that of the US and they are struggling, how will we end up going?

so we can see your northern beaches area of many years ago below, the prices then,the prices now, what cheap interest rates do and what happens when they wear off. not to mention along side the falling economy. can you guys not see we are heading down the same path as the US and usuing the same mindless strategies they have used, we have seen how they have worked ,or is that not worked. I mean its got to the point we pay uneducated meataxes 100+ dollars an hour to dig dirt from the ground, china is slowing and the mining boom is over, which was about all we had left going for us. our industries are collapsing, same as the US, and yet our minimum wage is over double theres. we cannot compete with the modern world, its got us licked to say the least. As our OP would say, get used to the new normal, whatever that is and turns out to be.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9810364/3/
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MMM
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herbie
27 Sep 2013, 10:04 AM
Dunno Ted ... Is the dude a bit of a 'hard head' or some such? :re:
No, it was to supposed to be more a reality wake up call if you are referring to Peter reguarding the US economy.

But dont let the facts get in the way of a good story right herbie :re:
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

MMM
27 Sep 2013, 11:01 AM
we can see your northern beaches area of many years ago...
Ted, house prices in Sydney are booming right now, and the Northern Beaches is no exception.

Prices are up very strongly since you sold your house in early 2012 (and even more strongly since I bought between 2005-2009).

And this boom is just getting started. Sydney prices will be up another 30% by the end of 2015.

Gold has crashed since you piled into gold in early 2012 and went to live in your brother's shed.

When you first joined this forum you told us gold was going to boom and house prices were going to crash.

The reverse has occurred.

You made a bad call. You need to face up to that.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Sep 2013, 11:12 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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MMM
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b_b
27 Sep 2013, 09:49 AM
doubleview
27 Sep 2013, 04:48 AM
QE reminds me of a bizzare sequal to misery .

Its like a woman feeding her children arsenic until they become addicted. She then stops giving them arsenic and they die.

Not from arsenic poisoning but rather from withdrawal. QE is the arsenic and the economy is fully addicted now. The economy won't die from QE it will die from withdrawal.

Additionally the suggestion of lowering the QE billions was a test.
The analogy I would use is QE is a Placebo a doctor gives a sick patient.

The Doctor knows he is out of medicine, so this is the only action he can take. The Doctor is relying on the patient's ignorance, so that if the mind feels better, the body will feel better. A confidence trick.

It may well work.

The real issue is if the patient ever works out that the Doctor has not been helping at all, and he really does not have any answers or remedies. What will happen to the Doctor-Patient relationship? All hell may break loose.
A rather perfect analogy, if I do say so myself bob. simply brillaint :D
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

MMM
27 Sep 2013, 11:01 AM
what cheap interest rates do
so if you knew that cheap rates would push up housing prices why did you sell like a lemming 2012?

biiiiiiig mistake.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9368645/1/#post8288784

"You can take my answer to the bank. The answer to your question in general is yes, house prices will be cheaper in all capital cities in two years time,will also be cheaper in twelve months time and will probably be also cheaper in five years time" - Ted/Dave/MMM, January 2012


http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9269499/4/#post8294395

"Just so you know , in my old thread I had predicted that gold would break 2000 an ounce in 2012 and this was around the beggining of last year, no great prediction I know but thats not the point I will get to , somebody also asked when GOLD WOULD HIT $5,000 AN OUNCE , while I was reluctant to put a prediction on this , I responded with , If someone was to give me a million dollars today and said I had to place it all on one year that gold would reach 5,000 , I would place it on 2014 , now by this and to piss off any time wasting jiberers I mean that it would hit 5,000 sometime during 2014. Now I would never really put a prediction on such a thing but answered it as best I could , the point is that I dont know where it will be in 2014 or even the end of 2012 but I do know it will go up and up and up.

And here is my prediction for you , over the next year or so you will see the price of both gold and silver grow strongly , you will see more and more people lose there jobs and you will see australia in the mist of the biggest gold rush since the good old days , this should start to become obvious in another year or two.
.
You will see people start to rush gold mining towns and they will become bigger than the old days , prices of houses in these mining towns should see strong growth over the short term meaning 2 to 4 years , it to hard to say what will happen after that time at this stage .

So there you have it folks , australia will be in for a gold rush in the next year or so"
- Ted/Dave/MMM, February 2012
Edited by Shadow, 27 Sep 2013, 11:20 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Shadow
27 Sep 2013, 11:19 AM
http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9368645/1/#post8288784

"You can take my answer to the bank. The answer to your question in general is yes, house prices will be cheaper in all capital cities in two years time,will also be cheaper in twelve months time and will probably be also cheaper in five years time" - Ted/Dave/MMM, January 2012


http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9269499/4/#post8294395

"Just so you know , in my old thread I had predicted that gold would break 2000 an ounce in 2012 and this was around the beggining of last year, no great prediction I know but thats not the point I will get to , somebody also asked when GOLD WOULD HIT $5,000 AN OUNCE , while I was reluctant to put a prediction on this , I responded with , If someone was to give me a million dollars today and said I had to place it all on one year that gold would reach 5,000 , I would place it on 2014 , now by this and to piss off any time wasting jiberers I mean that it would hit 5,000 sometime during 2014. Now I would never really put a prediction on such a thing but answered it as best I could , the point is that I dont know where it will be in 2014 or even the end of 2012 but I do know it will go up and up and up.

And here is my prediction for you , over the next year or so you will see the price of both gold and silver grow strongly , you will see more and more people lose there jobs and you will see australia in the mist of the biggest gold rush since the good old days , this should start to become obvious in another year or two.
.
You will see people start to rush gold mining towns and they will become bigger than the old days , prices of houses in these mining towns should see strong growth over the short term meaning 2 to 4 years , it to hard to say what will happen after that time at this stage .

So there you have it folks , australia will be in for a gold rush in the next year or so"
- Ted/Dave/MMM, February 2012
holy shit he's like the ultimate contrarian.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Sydneyite
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Pig Iron
27 Sep 2013, 11:22 AM
Holy shit he's like the ultimate contrarian.
Yep. It's when I started reading views like that on gold from complete idiot's like Crazy-Dave/Ted/MMM etc back in 2011/2012 that I became convinced gold was in a speculative bubble and was about to bust. Guys like him are the equivelant of the taxi driver giving you share tips when it comes to the PM market. :dry:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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