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Fresh reading on economy shows US recovery gaining steam
Topic Started: 18 Aug 2013, 10:32 AM (5,042 Views)
herbie
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peter fraser
26 Sep 2013, 07:31 PM
Because small business is so reliant on the family home to secure business overdrafts, I don't think that the USA can see a full recovery until we see prices back to peak levels, or close to it. Small mum and dad business is still collectively a major employer, so the house price and employment recovery are linked IMHO.
Had a few grogs with a small businessman last night. He passed the comment that 85% of small businesses go broke within 5 years and 90% within 10 years - Are those about the figures or was he making stuff up?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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stinkbug
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herbie
27 Sep 2013, 07:49 AM
Had a few grogs with a small businessman last night. He passed the comment that 85% of small businesses go broke within 5 years and 90% within 10 years - Are those about the figures or was he making stuff up?
I was once told that 90% of small businesses don't survive 5 years, and of those that do 90% don't survive the second 5 years.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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peter fraser
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herbie
27 Sep 2013, 07:49 AM
Had a few grogs with a small businessman last night. He passed the comment that 85% of small businesses go broke within 5 years and 90% within 10 years - Are those about the figures or was he making stuff up?
I'm not sure about bankruptcy, but we used to say that 80% of new business will fail in the first two or three years. Many of those will pull the pin and resume life as an employee before they get to the bankruptcy stage, but in essence your mate is close to the money.

A lot of people have romantic dreams about their own coffee shop or restaurant or whatever. Small business stops being romantic when your spending time cleaning the dunnies in the restaurant and ensuring rodents don't get into the produce.

It's money that causes problems. Either a lack of it, or poor control, or failure to collect it from people they have sold goods or services to. Most successful small business owners have at some point come close to the edge and learnt from that experience. I take my hat off to the good ones, they deserve every dollar that they have earned.

We don't teach business principles in school in this country unless you get a degree, which is a shame, so most people know nothing when they start a business, or else they are over qualified. I believe that Centrelink run small business courses and they're probably useful.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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MMM
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I'm not sure what direction interest rates are really heading over there , the whole thing is so screwed up .

Where do I start, jobless claims down they say ' that just means the number of people on social security has dropped because after being unemployed and receiving benefits for six months or so , they just kicked off, receive no benefits, are taken off the jobless claims list and thrown into the street with nothing except food stamps,. Which is why we see the number of people on food stamps continually climbing and almost at 48 million people, does that sound like a recovery.
So they fool.the sheeple with jobless numbers but don't explain how they really achieve this, which is by kicking people off after a certain period of time even though they are still unemployed. So.what may be made to appear like an improvement is not really an improvement , just really a further decline covered over by bullshit.


If it was really recovering over there they would have ,one, tapered from their astounding 85 BILLION per MONTH BS program which was put in place to stop the whole economy imploding altogether and is the only thing which has made things look like they are recovering, a phoney recovery by the criminal act of counterfeiting to pay their bills. Because without it as Obama admitted himself only last week , the US would be a deadbeat country, in other words, completely screwed. These mortgage backed securities are being paid for with this 85 billion per month.

House sales up Peter , hardly , just a dead cat bounce from what we have seen prior , which was next to nothing by historical measures. And also by mortgage backed government securities helped along by stimulus.

The 85 billion per month may have helped the interest rate to rise, but if it stays there or rises , even with this 85 billion it will go into further decline, take it away and it collapses. So they sold a few more houses than six months ago , but so what , have prices increased. Take the stimulus away , watch the prices tumble another 50% and we will see more sales again, so what , not from any recovery but from collapse.

And small business is what made and built their country, small business that grew to large businesses and manufacturing of goods.That's all over,

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doubleview
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peter fraser
27 Sep 2013, 07:35 AM
It's that view that will keep you consistently wrong.

You're not trying to understand QE or the other measures, and people always become negative about things they don't understand.

Make the effort.

Haha, putting your head in the sand is not understanding it.

nuff said!!
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herbie
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peter fraser
27 Sep 2013, 08:13 AM
I'm not sure about bankruptcy, but we used to say that 80% of new business will fail in the first two or three years. Many of those will pull the pin and resume life as an employee before they get to the bankruptcy stage, but in essence your mate is close to the money.

A lot of people have romantic dreams about their own coffee shop or restaurant or whatever. Small business stops being romantic when your spending time cleaning the dunnies in the restaurant and ensuring rodents don't get into the produce.

It's money that causes problems. Either a lack of it, or poor control, or failure to collect it from people they have sold goods or services to. Most successful small business owners have at some point come close to the edge and learnt from that experience. I take my hat off to the good ones, they deserve every dollar that they have earned.

We don't teach business principles in school in this country unless you get a degree, which is a shame, so most people know nothing when they start a business, or else they are over qualified. I believe that Centrelink run small business courses and they're probably useful.
Yep, you've got respect the dudes then. And surely can't blame the banks for wanting to get their fingers into something a bit substantial like home equity before funding them.

The bloke's business is fine. But his missus' is a recent start up - Not losing money - But not making enough to warrant keeping it going as things are yet anyway. He reckoned they'll review it in another year and pull the pin then if that's what the numbers dictate.
Edited by herbie, 27 Sep 2013, 08:36 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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peter fraser
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doubleview
27 Sep 2013, 08:24 AM
Haha, putting your head in the sand is not understanding it.

nuff said!!
That's a sad reply, clearly you prefer to not make the effort.

People used to cower in fear when we had a lunar eclipse, but we don't anymore.

So has the eclipse changed or has our understanding changed?

it's gunna be ok, you don't have to hide in the cupboard anymore.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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MMM
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Just continuing on from my previous post which I was unable to do with this so called smartphone.

Anyway like I was saying about a so called recovery. If it was really recovering theyy would be tapering their stimulus , which was just a load of BS talk, would not have people increasing in the food stamp department to almost 48 million people, would not be going further into debt and would not be about to tick over 17 trillion in debt and also reaching the debt ceiling , for which they will now increase again just to pay their bills and stop the economy from imploding.
They have most people fooled that there is some sort of actuall recovering as seen by some of our posters here. It is all BS, there is a phoney recovery, not a REAL recovery.

Its like one shop next to the other as far as the US and emerging economies go. One shop makes and sells a radio for $2 the other makes and sells a radio for $42 .The guy selling for$42 soon goes out of business after some guy comes along selling them for$2.simple really. It starts at the bottom and goes all the way up, from match boxes to motorcars and beyond. You simply cannot compete. There have been some new manufacturing jobs created in the US of late, but probably government subsidised like our motor industry here is being subsidised , again by stimulus, even if that were not the case and it was not being subsidised , these are extremely low paying jobs, paying far less than our minimum wage here that we would pay a fifteen year old. The minimum wage here is over $16 an hour , in the US is it $7.25 an hour.

There is no recovery , just BS to make the less educating into thinking there is one.

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peter fraser
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herbie
27 Sep 2013, 08:35 AM
Yep, you've got respect the dudes then. And surely can't blame the banks for wanting to get their fingers into something a bit substantial like home equity before funding them.

The bloke's business is fine. But his missus' is a recent start up - Not losing money - But not making enough to warrant keeping it going as things are yet anyway. He reckoned they'll review it in another year and pull the pin then if that's what the numbers dictate.
Your mate is one of the smart ones. Some people stay and go down with the ship.

A business may not make much money in the first year, but the potential (or lack of potential) should be obvious at that point.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Shadow
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MMM
27 Sep 2013, 08:44 AM
There is no recovery , just BS to make the less educating into thinking there is one
But Ted, not everyone has had the benefit of 'making into' your advanced level of edumacating.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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