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Fresh reading on economy shows US recovery gaining steam
Topic Started: 18 Aug 2013, 10:32 AM (5,037 Views)
Black Panther
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Fresh reading on economy shows US recovery gaining steam

After shuffling forward for the first part of the year, the U.S. economy is starting to pick up speed.

On Monday, an index tracking activity in service industries for July outpaced expectations, the latest in a clutch of data that points to a broad acceleration in economic growth. Last week, a matching index of U.S. manufacturers surged to its highest point in two years.

Together the two surveys show that the U.S. economy entered the second half of the year in a more energetic mode. That showing bolsters the case of policy makers who argue it is time to withdraw some of the extraordinary support extended to the economy since the financial crisis.

“We’re cautiously optimistic,” said Paul Edelstein, an economist at IHS Global Insight. “It looks like things are slowly accelerating but not robust.”

The index focused on service industries, released by the Institute for Supply Management, jumped to its highest level since February. The number is derived from a survey of 16 industries that employ about 90 per cent of U.S. workers. When asked to describe business activity, the responses included comments such as “Large projects starting” and “Volumes are slightly higher, mostly due to housing.”

The data “support other evidence that the economy is gaining momentum,” wrote Paul Dales of Capital Economics in a note on Monday. The recent performance of the two indexes – services and manufacturing – indicates that gross domestic product could expand at an annual rate of 3 per cent in the third quarter, he said. That tempo would represent a large improvement from the 1.7-per-cent pace recorded in the second quarter.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/us-service-sector-growth-jumps-unexpectedly-in-july/article13593014/
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Lgic
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Once agin, unfunded liabilities are the key..


'In comparison, the United States’ shortfall for So- cial Security and Medicare alone has been somewhat smaller than the EU average, at 6.5 percent of future GDP. But as a result of the expansion of the Medicare program to cover prescription drugs, the U.S. fiscal im- balance is now 8.2 percent of future GDP. Putting this in perspective, to close its fiscal imbalance:
■ The United States would need to save and invest an amount equal to 8.2 percent of its GDP beginning now and continuing every year forever to pay expect- ed future benefits without future tax increases.
■ This could be accomplished by more than doubling the current 15.3 percent payroll tax on employers and employees, immediately and forever.
■ Alternatively, the federal government could imme- diately stop spending nearly four out of every five dollars on programs other than Social Security and Medicare — eliminating most discretionary spend- ing on such programs as education, national defense, environmental protection and welfare — forever.
Each year that the United States does not take action to reduce the projected shortfall, it grows by more than $1.5 trillion, after adjusting for inflation.'

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newjez
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I thought you had written off the US as well as the UK. Why are they coming back BP? I thought you said it was over for the western world?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Black Panther
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newjez
18 Aug 2013, 06:55 PM
I thought you had written off the US as well as the UK. Why are they coming back BP? I thought you said it was over for the western world?
See http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8420113&t=9941019
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Gossamer
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44th most prolific poster on APF

The amount of people on SNAP benefits are not reducing so I see no recovery.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

APF idiot list
Nelson
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skamy
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Lgic
18 Aug 2013, 04:24 PM
Once agin, unfunded liabilities are the key..


'In comparison, the United States’ shortfall for So- cial Security and Medicare alone has been somewhat smaller than the EU average, at 6.5 percent of future GDP. But as a result of the expansion of the Medicare program to cover prescription drugs, the U.S. fiscal im- balance is now 8.2 percent of future GDP. Putting this in perspective, to close its fiscal imbalance:
■ The United States would need to save and invest an amount equal to 8.2 percent of its GDP beginning now and continuing every year forever to pay expect- ed future benefits without future tax increases.
■ This could be accomplished by more than doubling the current 15.3 percent payroll tax on employers and employees, immediately and forever.
■ Alternatively, the federal government could imme- diately stop spending nearly four out of every five dollars on programs other than Social Security and Medicare — eliminating most discretionary spend- ing on such programs as education, national defense, environmental protection and welfare — forever.
Each year that the United States does not take action to reduce the projected shortfall, it grows by more than $1.5 trillion, after adjusting for inflation.'

http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/st319.pdf

You should quote your source or folk might think you a plagiarist. You should also mention that these figures are disputed by the US pension actuaries. The Author and his organization have a small government low tax, anti welfare agenda. I think this is important to let folk know this when you produce a pile of statements as if they were proven facts, when it was just a highly disputed report used to justify welfare cuts by the Bush administration.

For a little read about the authors of these extremists reports read here (http://peoplespension.infoshop.org/blogs-mu/2010/05/24/cato-premieres-its-latest-horror-show/)

These guys like to use this data to argue for cuts to welfare and medicare but happily testified that tax cuts "Bush Style" were not a worry
Quote:
 
.......in testimony before the House Judiciary Committee in March 2003, argued that the Bush tax cuts had relatively little impact on the long-term fiscal equation, although he declined to quantify this. But his numbers on Social Security and Medicare were scary enough that they might be of great help in selling a drastic restructuring of Social Security, if and when the administration was ready to take up that project again.

This is what the real actuarial experts thought of the Gokhale/Smetters calculations.
Quote:
 
The American Academy of Actuaries, the principal professional group representing pension actuaries, objected publicly to the administration’s attempt to institutionalize the infinite projection. In a letter to the trustees dated December 19, 2003, the Academy came close to accusing the Bush administration of trying to deceive the public. “The new measures,” it said, “provide little if any useful information about the program’s long-range finances and indeed are likely to mislead anyone lacking technical expertise in the demographic, economic and actuarial aspects of the program’s finances into believing the program is in far worse financial condition than is actually indicated.”



So Logic, I would beware of betting on house prices using their extremely flawed politically motivated material if I were you.




Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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goldbug
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US Mortgage Lending is Tumbling

Mortgage applications have been on a brutal decline that started in early May. For the week ending August 9, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Composite Index dropped 4.7%, with the Refinance Index down 4% and the Purchase Index down 5%. It isn’t a fluke. Mortgage applications have plunged 50% from early May and have hit a level not seen since April 2011.

Average interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, at 4.56%, are nearly a full percentage point higher than in early May. These higher rates have been colliding with much higher home prices. Result: a dizzying jump in mortgage payments. Sticker shock for prospective buyers.

So first-time buyers now account for only 29% of total sales; prior to the housing crash, they accounted for up to half. The Fed’s “wealth effect” policies are pushing average Americans out of the housing market. Of course, they don’t have to be homeless. About half of the vacant single-family homes that these private equity firms and REITs have acquired are still vacant – maybe they’d cut some deals on rent.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/08/us-mortgage-lending-is-tumbling.html
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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GloomBoomDoom
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/wal-mart-cutting-orders-as-unsold-merchandise-piles-up.html
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b_b
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goldbug
19 Aug 2013, 09:26 PM
US Mortgage Lending is Tumbling

Mortgage applications have been on a brutal decline that started in early May. For the week ending August 9, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Composite Index dropped 4.7%, with the Refinance Index down 4% and the Purchase Index down 5%. It isn’t a fluke. Mortgage applications have plunged 50% from early May and have hit a level not seen since April 2011.

Average interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, at 4.56%, are nearly a full percentage point higher than in early May. These higher rates have been colliding with much higher home prices. Result: a dizzying jump in mortgage payments. Sticker shock for prospective buyers.

So first-time buyers now account for only 29% of total sales; prior to the housing crash, they accounted for up to half. The Fed’s “wealth effect” policies are pushing average Americans out of the housing market. Of course, they don’t have to be homeless. About half of the vacant single-family homes that these private equity firms and REITs have acquired are still vacant – maybe they’d cut some deals on rent.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/08/us-mortgage-lending-is-tumbling.html
WOW - A goldbug reading MMT blogs...
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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peter fraser
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yes both new home sales and existing home sales took a hit, but new home sales are rebounding and so too will existing home sales.

Posted Image

read more here.
Edited by peter fraser, 26 Sep 2013, 05:30 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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