Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 7
Iron Ore Boom vs. Kevin Rudd's Doom; Bears got it wrong yet again.
Topic Started: 16 Aug 2013, 02:37 AM (6,290 Views)
newjez
Member Avatar


Lef-tee
19 Aug 2013, 07:12 AM


Sorry miw, this nonsense. I have lived all my life in a town at the end of the mining production chain and am well acquainted with the cycle. My father and grandfather both worked on previous contruction projects here. The completed full operation phase does not employ anything like half the number of the peak construction workforce. Where on earth did you come up with a figure like that? Each time a major new resource project was completed and production came on stream here, the population of the town physically shrank and did not recover until the next one. This time, the population per se has not really grown due to the introduction of FIFO but there were close to 10 000 workers here a short time ago, the fully operational plants probably won't require 2000 to run them. Plants are becoming more automated than the older ones were.

I think you've missed the fact that however many people are employed over a 30 year lifespan, all that matters is net jobs created - not how many people are recycled through existing positions over the years. The net job creation is mostly during the construction phase, simple as that. When the construction phase ends, there are thousands of people looking for jobs.

Strong output growth and rising revenue in an industry where production is far more capital-intensive than labour-intensive, where perhaps half of the profits are siphoned off overseas (after being counted as GDP) and where royalties are taken by austerity-minded governments just not have anything like the benfits to the overall economy that the construction boom phase does.

And a cursory glance at the broader economy will tell you that all is not well.
Are you including contractors miw?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


Lef-tee
19 Aug 2013, 07:12 AM
Sorry miw, this nonsense. I have lived all my life in a town at the end of the mining production chain and am well acquainted with the cycle. My father and grandfather both worked on previous contruction projects here. The completed full operation phase does not employ anything like half the number of the peak construction workforce. Where on earth did you come up with a figure like that?
Well, I haven't made an academic study of it, but if you look at the media releases, what I thought were fairly typical numbers would be like Roy Hill with a peak workforce of 3500 and a long-term operational workforce of about 1600, or the proposed new coal mine west of Bowen which from memory was about 4,000 and 2,000. But looking around elsewhere it would seem iron ore and coal mines are outliers, because LNG seems to have about a 10:1 ratio and processing plants with 5:1 or 6:1.

Quote:
 
Each time a major new resource project was completed and production came on stream here, the population of the town physically shrank and did not recover until the next one. This time, the population per se has not really grown due to the introduction of FIFO but there were close to 10 000 workers here a short time ago, the fully operational plants probably won't require 2000 to run them. Plants are becoming more automated than the older ones were.


I assume you are talking about Gladstone, right? Since Gladstone is about processing and not about extraction it would seem we were were looking at the two extreme ends of the spectrum. 10,000 and 2,000 seems about right for processing plants.

Quote:
 
I think you've missed the fact that however many people are employed over a 30 year lifespan, all that matters is net jobs created - not how many people are recycled through existing positions over the years. The net job creation is mostly during the construction phase, simple as that. When the construction phase ends, there are thousands of people looking for jobs.


Can't really agree with this. I would see the nett job creation as whatever is left over after the construction gangs have moved out.

Quote:
 
Strong output growth and rising revenue in an industry where production is far more capital-intensive than labour-intensive, where perhaps half of the profits are siphoned off overseas (after being counted as GDP) and where royalties are taken by austerity-minded governments just not have anything like the benfits to the overall economy that the construction boom phase does.


I am always amused by the "siphoned off overseas" bit. It seems people are quite happy for the money to flow in for the construction phase but begrudge the shareholders their 2.5% to 4% dividend in good years or the bond-holders their 6.5% interest rate which gives them their return on the up-front capital. If the capital that paid for the construction came from Australia in the first place, then none of the operational profits would go overseas, now, would they?

Quote:
 

And a cursory glance at the broader economy will tell you that all is not well.


A cursory glance at the wider economy tells me that right now things are still better than they have been in most of my lifetime. Probably not in Gladstone though.

And there is little doubt that the operational workforce in the resources sector will expand over the next couple of years even as the construction side of things rolls off from its 2012 peak. If anything it looks as if the miners will have under-constructed rather than over-constructed.

newjez
19 Aug 2013, 04:21 PM
Are you including contractors miw?
Of course. Given that the majority of the workforce in mining overall is now contractors, it would be silly not to.
Edited by miw, 19 Aug 2013, 05:01 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


miw
19 Aug 2013, 04:59 PM
And there is little doubt that the operational workforce in the resources sector will expand over the next couple of years even as the construction side of things rolls off from its 2012 peak. If anything it looks as if the miners will have under-constructed rather than over-constructed.


I would agree with this statement. $6 billion in new mining expansions announced in the last 2 weeks alone in WA.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Pig Iron
Member Avatar
Bogan scum

those hoping for a big crash off the back of the investment boom may as well piss into the wind for another 3 years for all the good it's going to do them.

don't say i didn't warn you.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Mike
19 Aug 2013, 06:56 PM
I would agree with this statement. $6 billion in new mining expansions announced in the last 2 weeks alone in WA.
Feel free to provide links.

In the last 2 weeks.

Rio cut 5 billion in services spending.
Reed resources cancelled expansions.
Reed resources to place flagship project into administration.
Browse ruled illegal. Whats that 50 billion?
Pig Iron
19 Aug 2013, 09:59 PM
those hoping for a big crash off the back of the investment boom may as well piss into the wind for another 3 years for all the good it's going to do them.

don't say i didn't warn you.
RIP the megaproject.
You guys have really bad timing with your comments.

Turn on a TV or Radio.
Edited by Perthite, 19 Aug 2013, 10:12 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Pig Iron
Member Avatar
Bogan scum

Perthite
19 Aug 2013, 10:05 PM
Rio cut 5 billion in services spending.
old news.

Rio also announced 5 billion in expansions. http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/rio-tinto-to-press-ahead-with-us5-billion-pilbara-expansion-20130809-2rn18.html
Perthite
19 Aug 2013, 10:05 PM
<br />Reed resources cancelled expansions.<br />Reed resources to place flagship project into administration.
tiny. they have a market cap of 95 million. bucket meet drop.
Perthite
19 Aug 2013, 10:05 PM
Browse ruled illegal. Whats that 50 billion?
you really do have shit for brains if you think that gas isn't going to be exploited. all this means is a new environmental study will be done and it'll go ahead with a delay.
Edited by Pig Iron, 19 Aug 2013, 10:20 PM.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Pig Iron
19 Aug 2013, 10:17 PM
old news.

Rio also announced 5 billion in expansions. http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/rio-tinto-to-press-ahead-with-us5-billion-pilbara-expansion-20130809-2rn18.html

tiny. they have a market cap of 95 million. bucket meet drop.

you really do have shit for brains if you think that gas isn't going to be exploited. all this means is a new environmental study will be done and it'll go ahead with a delay.
Yeah but the cuts are happening..... The expansion comes up for approval in November.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/rio_tinto_to_slash_bn_from_mine_z4Pw5Z8qy3kI8EROAQSANI

Shit you suck at this.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18560706/browse-gas-project-approval-invalid/

Same goes if you don't think our reputation as an investment destination has been damaged.

It will go ahead probably as FLNG in about 6 years. Perhaps you can take advantage of the investment boom in Korea.
Edited by Perthite, 19 Aug 2013, 10:32 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Pig Iron
Member Avatar
Bogan scum

Perthite
19 Aug 2013, 10:28 PM
the expansions will happen. learn to read ffs.

"‘360 will happen, it will go ahead. The issue is timing and the way we go ahead, but it is a robust project, it’s a good project and the market will need the iron ore that comes from this,’’ said Mr Walsh."

it's only a matter of how they do it.

as for browse, you need to do some reading on what the approvals process is. they are more than capable of putting in another proposal and making it work.
Perthite
19 Aug 2013, 10:28 PM
Same goes if you don't think our reputation as an investment destination has been damaged.
i don't disagree with this, but it's due to labor's ham fisted blundering more than anything else.
Perthite
19 Aug 2013, 10:28 PM
It will go ahead probably as FLNG in about 6 years.
FLNG which has never been done before. we'll see how that pans out.
Edited by Pig Iron, 19 Aug 2013, 10:37 PM.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


I would say at this price they would give it the green light in November. However it could be anything by then.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Bardon
Default APF Avatar



I met with a colleague today that supplies a lot of mineral project infrastructure projects. He sees a massive recovery on now based on his enquiry levels and thinks that its all good again.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
Learn More · Sign-up for Free
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 5
  • 7



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy