The Liberal know any bold predictions like the end of the mining boom are nearly always wrong
Where's the "bold prediction"? The boom is past it's peak - this is a current fact, not a future prediction.
Quote:
Rising export volumes, rising commodity prices.
Which as you understand, are not nearly as important to the growth of the economy as investment itself.
Quote:
Labour has enjoyed by far the largest mining boom in Australian history
Yes - although the boom actually spans both this government and the last. It is also spelled "Labor" when referring to the Australian political party.
Quote:
and the last 4 years during this investment boom would be considered a disappointing performance at best.
There are plenty of things they have/have not done that I am critical of. Can you sum up "dissapointing at best"? You might want to check the performance of the Australian economy since the GFC against the rest of the developed world - you will find it has been one of the star performers........even when mining was going backward.
Quote:
The sooner Labour are turfed out the better for this Nation, I hope they fully enjoy 4 terms in opposition to give the Liberals time to repair all the damage done. Gen Y must feel great Labour leaving a $400 billion debt and liabilities that their taxes will need to pay. Interest alone now could pay for the NDIS scheme in its entirety.
This is where it gets interesting. Should the libs win - which seems likely - Abbot and Hockey will inherit an economy that does not remotely resemble the roaring economic growth years of the Howard and Costello tenure. It was a very good time to be in government then. Anyone could look like great economic managers because they didn't really have to do anything. Conditions were as favourable as they had been in a very long time. Lets see how they go now, especially with promises of return to surplus.
The resources boom is still gathering speed. What has passed its peak is the engineering construction boom.
Both export volumes and (perhaps surprisingly) commodity prices are rising at the moment, in case you hadn't noticed.
I had noticed miw.
You may not have noticed that is what I meant. The engineering construction boom is a significantly larger contributer to jobs and economic growth than mineral exports themselves. In case you hadn't noticed, the economy is screaming this out.
Is there a streak of political partisanship behind your seemingly chastising response miw? I seem to recall you mentioning that you grew up in National party heartland (not that that necessarily makes anyone vote a particular way).
This is where it gets interesting. Should the libs win - which seems likely - Abbot and Hockey will inherit an economy that does not remotely resemble the roaring economic growth years of the Howard and Costello tenure. It was a very good time to be in government then. Anyone could look like great economic managers because they didn't really have to do anything. Conditions were as favourable as they had been in a very long time. Lets see how they go now, especially with promises of return to surplus.
There seems to be many people who are betting on things getting much better when the libs get into power. Many seem to assume that the economy will suddenly burst back into life, and that the ties which are hampering industry will be cut, and we will enter a new golden era.
It's quite possible that the first thing the liberals will do - is acknowledge that the economy is in a worse state than they thought, and they now need to cut. It's an easy win for them, as they get to blame all the heartache on labor.
The second thing that could happen, is that global interest rates could start to rise, leaving Australia out of sync with the rest of the world. In a country that doesn't make anything, this will prove interesting.
I forsee see the first term of the new liberal government to be challenging, and I don't see a second term as a 'given'.
I forsee see the first term of the new liberal government to be challenging, and I don't see a second term as a 'given'.
Agreed newjez. The easy days of an economy driven by the biggest mining investment boom in our history and the biggest private sector credit boom in our history seem to be coming to a close.
Government will likely have to become a more active player in driving economic growth. The libs in particular will have difficulty with this since it flies in the face of their ideology.
I guess that if Menzies did it, it's possible they can (if Menzies were brought back to life, he would very likely be refused membership of the current party, so far has politics moved to the right). But they will have to ditch some core beliefs.
You may not have noticed that is what I meant. The engineering construction boom is a significantly larger contributer to jobs and economic growth than mineral exports themselves. In case you hadn't noticed, the economy is screaming this out.
Actually, it is not. If you look at most mining projects you see that at peak of construction they employ about twice the people they employ at full operation. But a mine operates for 30 years or more while construction phase is about 3 years so operation easily beats construction for jobs over time.
Construction peaking and having a mining downturn are two completely different things, as anyone who has (like me) been working at a mine when they turned off a shift because prices and demand were too low, or even (like some of the older coal mines in Qld recently) the mine gets shut down or mothballed could see. The point is a mining downturn impacts all operating mines, whereas a construction falloff impacts only people who build new mines.
So a construction rolloff is impactful, but probably not as impactful as a general mining downturn and certainly not as impactful as when both happen at once - which seemed like a real risk 12 months ago.
Quote:
Is there a streak of political partisanship behind your seemingly chastising response miw? I seem to recall you mentioning that you grew up in National party heartland (not that that necessarily makes anyone vote a particular way).
Nope. My political leanings are irrelevant to this discussion. The facts are relevant.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Yeah $400bn debt. The irony is that did it for silly old cu-nts like you, yet you really hate them for it. But Labor can't say that, because they would show how they betrayed gen y so badly by propping up greedy parasites like yourself.
The Libs will hurt some chardonnay socialists, hopefully, which could be good, but on the whole they'll simply continue turning the country into an overpopulated scum pit. That's all Australia can do yet everyone thinks they're all sophisticated and king shit. They're morons made out like they're financial geniuses.
For the record I'd just like to put my thoughts down here at APF on the post election environment just in case I'm correct. In which case I'll have written proof of my predictive smarts, and can then spend the next 5 years getting offered spots on prime time current affairs shows to squawk like chicken little, hopefully convincing a few wealthy and privileged but shit-stupid private-school educated bozos to fork out fat splodges of wonga to hear me squawk some more at one of their private functions.
I predict that LNP will win by a significant margin and immediately call out the country as being in an even more dire a state that previously thought. They will strike hard and fast with swingeing cuts to the public sector - admin jobs and bureaucrats will be dumped by the truckload. This sudden increase in unemployment will cause the property market to swan dive, whereupon I'll jump in with my 100 grand deposit and snap up a few mansions in Mosman.
After that the demand for our resources will suddenly skyrocket again, and property prices will soar 5000%. I will then sell up and use the money to fund a guerrilla army to execute a coup on a small African nation, whereupon I will become king and order every nubile female subject between the ages of 16 and 19 to mate with me.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Actually, it is not. If you look at most mining projects you see that at peak of construction they employ about twice the people they employ at full operation. But a mine operates for 30 years or more while construction phase is about 3 years so operation easily beats construction for jobs over time.
Sorry miw, this nonsense. I have lived all my life in a town at the end of the mining production chain and am well acquainted with the cycle. My father and grandfather both worked on previous contruction projects here. The completed full operation phase does not employ anything like half the number of the peak construction workforce. Where on earth did you come up with a figure like that? Each time a major new resource project was completed and production came on stream here, the population of the town physically shrank and did not recover until the next one. This time, the population per se has not really grown due to the introduction of FIFO but there were close to 10 000 workers here a short time ago, the fully operational plants probably won't require 2000 to run them. Plants are becoming more automated than the older ones were.
I think you've missed the fact that however many people are employed over a 30 year lifespan, all that matters is net jobs created - not how many people are recycled through existing positions over the years. The net job creation is mostly during the construction phase, simple as that. When the construction phase ends, there are thousands of people looking for jobs.
Strong output growth and rising revenue in an industry where production is far more capital-intensive than labour-intensive, where perhaps half of the profits are siphoned off overseas (after being counted as GDP) and where royalties are taken by austerity-minded governments just not have anything like the benfits to the overall economy that the construction boom phase does.
And a cursory glance at the broader economy will tell you that all is not well.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy