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Property Bulls still hell bent on destroying Australia; This is why millions have had enough
Topic Started: 6 Aug 2013, 03:37 PM (12,405 Views)
Dr Kinetoscope
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Trojan
8 Aug 2013, 02:03 PM
You mean things like FHOG?
Or stamp duty exemptions for first time buyers?
Or First Home Savers account?

Government policy always changes ... sometimes in your favour and sometimes not.
Deal with it.
You are wrong - those policies have increased lack of affordability.

Government policy favours owners and those who rent their house from the bank because they are the majority voting block - end of story.

Deal with it? Deal with what? I happen to be an outright property owner.
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Trojan
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Dr Kinetoscope
8 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM
Deal with it? Deal with what? I happen to be an outright property owner.
I never said you weren't a property owner.
Deal with the policies and deal with the whinging.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Dr Kinetoscope
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Trojan
8 Aug 2013, 02:10 PM
I never said you weren't a property owner.
Deal with the policies and deal with the whinging.
I wont deal with it, because I believe policy the way it is now is bad for our society and the economy.
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Dr Kinetoscope
8 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM
I wont deal with it, because I believe policy the way it is now is bad for our society and the economy.
I believe you are wrong but hey, we all have our opinions.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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miw
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Dr Kinetoscope
8 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM
I wont deal with it, because I believe policy the way it is now is bad for our society and the economy.
So what? You still have to deal with it. Nobody said you have to like it.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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peter fraser
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Shadow
8 Aug 2013, 01:58 PM
peter fraser
8 Aug 2013, 01:46 PM
Most people will read Leiths words and think that it means a crash, and the crash is imminent - that's not my interpretation, and I don't believe it's Leiths as well
Here's what Leith van Onselen said in 2010...

"In my opinion, an Australian house price crash is inevitable and cannot be avoided."

Of course now that the ABS index has risen to a new all time high in 2013, he is rapidly backtracking.

In mid-2012 he predicted a 6% decline in Melbourne house prices. Prices rose 6% instead.

What about all those bears who believed him in 2010 or even 2012 and delayed buying (or sold!) on the basis of his overpriced advice?

I get stuff wrong too, but I'm just an anonymous commenter on a forum... I don't run my own blog promoting my predictions, or charge people for my crappy advice.
I guess if it's good enough for Lord Maynard Keynes to change his point of view when presented with changing circumstances, then it's good enough for Leith as well.

I expected Melbourne to struggle, but it's not in the inner suburbs according to an REA that I know well.

Such is life.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Dr Kinetoscope
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miw
8 Aug 2013, 02:30 PM
So what? You still have to deal with it. Nobody said you have to like it.
No I don't have to sit back, keep quiet and put up with it. I'm just one person, but If I feel something is unjust I try to do something about it whether it be a big or small gesture.
Edited by Dr Kinetoscope, 8 Aug 2013, 02:44 PM.
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Strindberg
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peter fraser
8 Aug 2013, 02:43 PM
I guess if it's good enough for Lord Maynard Keynes to change his point of view when presented with changing circumstances, then it's good enough for Leith as well.
But what has changed since 2010 when Leith made his crash prediction?

The Keynes analogy is false.

Onselen claimed the crash as "inevitable and cannot be avoided".

That means he excluded the possibility that changed circumstances could prevent a crash.

He claimed that house prices to income are unsustainable and all the usual bear porn.

Quote:
 
Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property on July 20, 2010

Storm clouds gathering:

In my opinion, an Australian house price crash is inevitable and cannot be avoided. The fact is that house prices relative to income as well as household debt levels have simply become too high to be sustained, and all it will take is either a change of sentiment, a deterioration of Australia’s economy, another global credit shock, or shifting demographics to bring house prices down. If there is one thing that the GFC highlighted, it was that asset markets are fluid and can change course abruptly and viciously.

In the context of Australia’s housing bubble, prices have risen largely because of the ‘got to get in now’ mentality. As prices began to appreciate strongly from 2000, driven largely by an influx of investors and easy credit, more and more people became attracted to purchasing (investing in) houses, pushing prices up further and attracting even more people into the housing market. Eventually, however, excessive leverage will see this positive feedback loop unravel. Investors will likely start selling (or at least stop buying) and as the number of properties on the market begins to increase and prices begin to fall, the ‘got to get out now’ mentality will begin to take hold. Ultimately, the number of people exiting the market could develop into a stampede, and the Australian housing bubble will burst.

These dynamics have constituted almost every asset bubble/bust to date, from the Japan’s lost decade, to the mid-1990s Asian Financial Crisis, the 2007/08 global commodity bubble/bust, and the current US and European housing market crashes. There is absolutely no reason to believe that this time is different and Australia will somehow escape a similar fate.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2010/07/bringing-it-home/
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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peter fraser
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Strindberg
8 Aug 2013, 02:57 PM

But what has changed since 2010 when Leith made his crash prediction?


We are all three years older.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Elastic
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skamy
8 Aug 2013, 01:52 PM

The truth is that I care more about you and other young folk like you and their future than your doomer mates over at Macrobusiness who take you money for their silly fairy tales of cheap houses, while they watch you getting locked out of your own time in the sun for property,equities and a zillion other opportunities that are available to you young uns as we emerge from this global crisis.
Bloody charlatans that's what your so called mates are, bloody charlatans. Break free from them Veritas open your eyes and see the sunshine and get your head outta the manure for long enough to smell the roses.
Skamy, you seem to have a good eye for Charlatans.
Does your bullshit detector ever go off when you read Property investor magazines or anything by Doc Wilson.
Or does the detector only have a "gloomer" setting and not a "spruiker" setting?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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