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Australia interest rates to go lower, for longer
Topic Started: 5 Aug 2013, 07:13 PM (9,978 Views)
miw
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b_b
8 Aug 2013, 08:02 PM
Yes - we is supers ing yields. Except qe2 and qe3 have both pushed the long end up. The Fastest decline in bond yields in living memory when qe2 ended and the us was downgrades
QE has not been the only factor impacting bond yields. At the end of QE2 you may remember we had a big slump in stock prices, so it is not surprising that bond yields also dropped.

If the fed were not buying bonds, they would be priced lower and hence yields would be higher. But perhaps not by a hell of a lot.

A case in point is the sharp rise in yields since taper talk has started to get serious. But how much of this is because of expectation of the Fed getting out of the market and how much is because of expectation of an improving economy is hard to tell.
Edited by miw, 8 Aug 2013, 08:10 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Andrew Judd
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miw
8 Aug 2013, 07:59 PM
Nobody is going up to bondholders with a gun and taking the assets away. The fed is just paying more than what people think should be the market price for those bonds. Otherwise they would not sell.
Miw

Sometimes your tendency to point score on me really clouds your judgement. If you read what i said i am totally agreeing with you.

I said

QE is removing quality real income earning assets from the economy that are favoured by safety concious investors because the price is too good to refuse and handing them a pile of 'cash'

But you come up with a way to disagree and 'correct' me by saying

Nobody is going up to bondholders with a gun and taking the assets away. The fed is just paying more than what people think should be the market price for those bonds. Otherwise they would not sell.


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miw
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Andrew Judd
8 Aug 2013, 09:16 PM
Sometimes your tendency to point score on me really clouds your judgement. If you read what i said i am totally agreeing with you.
I was not disagreeing with you. I was agreeing with you. Expanding a little, in fact.
Edited by miw, 8 Aug 2013, 09:26 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Andrew Judd
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miw
8 Aug 2013, 09:25 PM
I was not disagreeing with you. I was agreeing with you. Expanding a little, in fact.
Baloney

Your reply adds nothing to what i said and clearly starts in a confrontational manner talking about confiscation at the point of a gun.

>>Nobody is going up to bondholders with a gun and taking the assets away. The fed is just paying more than what people think should be the market price for those bonds. Otherwise they would not sell.

Similarly speaking you were absolutely unable to agree with me that Hubble struggled with the idea of an expanding universe and instead you wanted to ram it up my arse the guy was the founding father and supporter of the whole damn idea. And we get the same nonesense from all of the pro big bang side of the argument. I agree that at the moment there is not a better theory but even so the idea there was a big bang is not easy for me to believe in and it appears also it was not easy for Hubble either. Big bang smacks of a human centric view point where we can only imagine we are relatively near the centre of the universe rather than objects being much further away from us, that so far, we are not even able to imagine (or detect)

All thru that silly Bernanke conversation you insisted that Bernanke was not talking about what he was talking about even though as plain as it could possibly be he was repeating the whole damn thing even while our stupid conversation was going on.

Edited by Andrew Judd, 9 Aug 2013, 06:38 AM.
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newjez
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Andrew Judd
9 Aug 2013, 06:36 AM
Baloney

Your reply adds nothing to what i said and clearly starts in a confrontational manner talking about confiscation at the point of a gun.

>>Nobody is going up to bondholders with a gun and taking the assets away. The fed is just paying more than what people think should be the market price for those bonds. Otherwise they would not sell.

Similarly speaking you were absolutely unable to agree with me that Hubble struggled with the idea of an expanding universe and instead you wanted to ram it up my arse the guy was the founding father and supporter of the whole damn idea. And we get the same nonesense from all of the pro big bang side of the argument. I agree that at the moment there is not a better theory but even so the idea there was a big bang is not easy for me to believe in and it appears also it was not easy for Hubble either. Big bang smacks of a human centric view point where we can only imagine we are relatively near the centre of the universe rather than objects being much further away from us, that so far, we are not even able to imagine (or detect)

All thru that silly Bernanke conversation you insisted that Bernanke was not talking about what he was talking about even though as plain as it could possibly be he was repeating the whole damn thing even while our stupid conversation was going on.
Good show though. The kids love it.

Thanks Andrew and miw for adding some sanity to this thread. It's a pity you don't get on. I like both your posts.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Elastic
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They just need to agree to disagree with agreeing.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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miw
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Andrew Judd
9 Aug 2013, 06:36 AM
Your reply adds nothing to what i said and clearly starts in a confrontational manner talking about confiscation at the point of a gun.
Fuck mate. You really are sensitive. I was 100% agreeing with you. There are people who think/imply that somehow the fed is confiscating those bonds out of the market and taking nett income out of the american economy. That's just balls. The fed is offering those people the nett income they think they will get *in advance* and they are taking up the offer. The fed is effectively deflating the bond bubble by letting people get out at a good price. My current feeling is that they will then let those bonds roll off on its own balance sheet where they can do least harm, but who knows?

Just put the implied "yes exactly" or "+1" in front of the sentence and you'll see what I mean.

No need to keep boring us with your wild-eyed expanding universe conspiracy theories though. For most people that one was settled at least 30 years ago.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Andrew Judd
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miw
9 Aug 2013, 05:24 PM
Fuck mate. You really are sensitive. I was 100% agreeing with you. There are people who think/imply that somehow the fed is confiscating those bonds out of the market and taking nett income out of the american economy. That's just balls. The fed is offering those people the nett income they think they will get *in advance* and they are taking up the offer. The fed is effectively deflating the bond bubble by letting people get out at a good price. My current feeling is that they will then let those bonds roll off on its own balance sheet where they can do least harm, but who knows?

Just put the implied "yes exactly" or "+1" in front of the sentence and you'll see what I mean.

No need to keep boring us with your wild-eyed expanding universe conspiracy theories though. For most people that one was settled at least 30 years ago.
idiot. I was just pointing out that like Hubble i struggle with the idea of an expanding universe

Who cares if it was settled 30 years ago.

At least i appear to be agreeing with hubble that somehow the idea is unsatisfactory.

You were the one who wanted to have your own private version of what Bernanke was talking about, even when the man himself was saying exactly what i was saying, where you spent weeks being toxic towards me as if you had some majorly superior ability to freeking read or listen to the words the man was saying where in fact you were utterly clueless as to what he was saying.






Edited by Andrew Judd, 9 Aug 2013, 06:31 PM.
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mel
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:lol great stuff
Edited by mel, 9 Aug 2013, 06:33 PM.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Andrew Judd
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.
Edited by Andrew Judd, 9 Aug 2013, 06:27 PM.
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