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Supply and demand. Sorry to repeat myself.
Topic Started: 4 Aug 2013, 11:13 AM (17,703 Views)
zaph
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barns
9 Aug 2013, 12:03 PM
I would concede this point.

PS cheap credit is also an enabler for demand.
Did you mean supply in your ps?

If so, I totally agree with that.
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Wisebear
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Shadow
9 Aug 2013, 11:50 AM
Wisebear
9 Aug 2013, 11:41 AM
Sorry Shadow but for you the debate is lost.

My points (that you are carefully avoiding) are as follows...

Demand only exceeds supply if demand exceeds supply. In Japan there is a declining population and therefore supply is always exceeding demand. It doesn't matter how much cheap credit you throw at Japanese people (and credit is very very cheap there). They aren't bidding up the price of homes because there are more homes than people need. Cheap credit will increase demand, but if it doesn't increase demand to a level that exceeds supply, then people are not going to bid up prices.

People are not bidding up the price of houses in places where there is ample supply and little demand, like Japan, or Detroit. Credit is very free and easy in Detroit. Are they bidding up the price of houses there? No. Because there is not enough demand regardless of how much credit you throw at people.
You are fully aware what point is being debated and you are unable to defend your position.
This means that you’ve lost the debate.

If you want to start another thread debating Japan or Detroit then go ahead and I’ll give you my opinion.
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Elastic
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I think that most of you are underestimating the effect of property investors on the level of demand.
Veritas gets it.

You are also not considering the fact that the quality/location of housing varies so that even when there are enough homes for everybody there will still be a higher level of demand for homes in the good locations.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Veritas
9 Aug 2013, 12:07 PM
Get involved in a proper way or fck off.
Perhaps you'd like to take your own advice and answer this previously ignored question

Quote:
 
barns
9 Aug 2013, 07:05 AM
Veritas. I have a straight forward question for you.

Price of median house in Broken Hill is $115k. Price of median house in Sydney is 6x that. Why?

They have the same banks, interest rates and build costs.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

skamy
9 Aug 2013, 11:52 AM
Ain't it strange how the posters with the most pompous usernames seem to post all the daft stuff on APF.
'Wise Bear' was first here two years ago telling us all about 'The Bubble' and how it was going to pop and how we were all wrong and all idiots for not seeing the 'risks' and 'threats' that he saw. And here we are two years later with house prices at new record highs and still rising, and Wise Bear still convinced he is right and hurling abuse and telling us we're all idiots.

I wonder if Wise Bear (under a different name) was one of the bears telling me in 2007 on GHPC about 'The Bubble' and how it was going to pop.

I've been listening to these gloomster predictions for nearly seven years now and still no sign of 'The Bubble' popping. For nearly seven years they've been telling me house prices are at the peak and can't get any higher. Yet house prices just keep rising.

Supply and demand.
Edited by Shadow, 9 Aug 2013, 12:19 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Catweasel
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Shadow
9 Aug 2013, 12:16 PM
'Wise Bear' was first here two years ago telling us all about 'The Bubble' and how it was going to pop and how we were all wrong and all idiots for not seeing the 'risks' and 'threats' that he saw. And here we are two years later with house prices at new record highs and still rising, and Wise Bear still convinced he is right and that we're all idiots.

I wonder if Wise Bear (under a different name) was one of the bears telling me in 2007 on GHPC about 'The Bubble' and how it was going to pop.

I've been hearing these gloomster predictions for seven years now and still no sign of 'The Bubble' popping. House prices just keep rising.

Supply and demand.
In its quest for incite its sparring partner, mouzealot reveal its skull.

If there be no the "signs" of pop pop, then it must accept possibility that bubble exist.

And there the mouse trap.

It cannot see the bubble until after the pop pop.

It have no the idea what it the be.

Until it a pop.

But something the underlying.

And its search for confirmation.

Never the end.

And that will make it feel the calmer.
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Wisebear
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zaph
9 Aug 2013, 12:02 PM
In other words cheap credit is an enabler for demand...
Good, you’re slowly getting there.
Now, what affect does demand have on prices?
Go on, you’re almost there.
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Veritas
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Wisebear
9 Aug 2013, 12:28 PM
zaph
9 Aug 2013, 12:02 PM
In other words cheap credit is an enabler for demand...
Good, you’re slowly getting there.
Now, what affect does demand have on prices?
Go on, you’re almost there.
Man, Ive been with you all the way here.

But the arch bulls here never give an inch.

All is as it should be and anyone who says otherwise is whinger/lazy/doomer etc etc
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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zaph
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Wisebear
9 Aug 2013, 12:28 PM
Good, you’re slowly getting there.
Now, what affect does demand have on prices?
Go on, you’re almost there.
You either believe credit is the only factor in house prices or you have done a poor job in explaining yourself.

Do you mean in isolation/all other things being equal then cheap credit will drive up house prices?

You're almost there.
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Simon
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Veritas
9 Aug 2013, 12:31 PM
Man, Ive been with you all the way here.

But the arch bulls here never give an inch.
your the only one with him, there's 10+ against you and they're not all bulls
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