A betting agency has declared the federal election over, paying out $1.5m in bets on the Coalition.
Online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au on Thursday declared the election a one-horse race.
"As far as Sportsbet's betting markets are concerned, the Abbotts can start packing up their belongings ahead of their imminent move to Kirribilli House," agency spokesman Haydn Lane said.
"The Coalition are now into Black Caviar-like odds to win the election."
The agency priced the Coalition at $1.03 with Labor at $11.50.
Betting markets have been a good predictor of election results.
In 2010, 147 favourites out of 150 in Sportsbet electorate markets went on to win the seat.
The prime minister, Kevin Rudd, said that since the Melbourne Cup began in the 1860s, the race favourite had only won about 35 times.
He said former Liberal leader John Hewson led in the polls in 1993 and was regarded as a "shoo-in", but lost the election.
"That is Mr Abbott's attitude today – because he believes he has the election in the bag he believes he can get away with not being truthful with the Australian people," Rudd said.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott said of the bookmakers: "More fool them".
Abbott was media adviser to John Hewson when the Liberal leader lost the 1993 election.
"I once worked for an opposition that was careering towards the inevitable victory – and it didn't happen," Abbott told reporters in Sydney.
"1993 is proof that there is no such thing as an unlosable election and I think this election is very, very tight."
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
Mel I hope you didn't end up losing your $ betting on Rudd to win..
It's going to be Libs
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
When Prime Minister Kevin Rudd unequivocally stated yesterday that Labor would oppose any attempt by an Abbott government to repeal the carbon tax, he was subtly shifting voter attention beyond this election, and on to the next.
Rudd had admitted earlier in the week that abandoning Labor’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2009 was a mistake, and that he would never again walk away from carbon pricing.
These two statements together serve to diffuse Abbott’s assertion that the 2013 election is a “referendum on the carbon tax”. Rudd is now effectively saying, “we’ll have a referendum on this issue, but it will be a double dissolution election next year”; and, most importantly, “I will fight that election all the way”.
This is very bad news for leadership aspirant Bill Shorten. Back in May, Business Spectator reported rumours from within parliament that Shorten was lobbying Caucus members to get ready to walk away from carbon pricing after the expected defeat of Julia Gillard at a September election (Is this the end for Labor’s ‘CarbonChoices’?, May 17).
The theory was that Shorten, as Opposition leader, would treat carbon pricing the way the Coalition had treated WorkChoices – like a radioactive corpse that had to be whisked away by apparatchiks in protective suits and buried, preferably with a large reinforced concrete slab over the grave.
That story was followed by public assertions from both Julia Gillard and then Climate Change Minister Greg Combet that they would not walk away from carbon pricing under any circumstances.
Shorten did not go that far, but he did hotly deny Business Spectator’s story, telling worried environment group Lighter Footprints: “... a carbon price is the best way to do something about climate change, so we can pass on the planet to our kids and grandkids in the best shape possible.”
It’s hard to remember, given the airbrushing from the newspapers of a number of members of the Gillard cabinet, how different things looked in May. Gillard was headed for defeat, and there was daily speculation over whether or not Rudd would return as leader.
Labor sources were telling this columnist at the time that Shorten has made it his mission, practically from the day after the 2007 election, to get rid of Rudd. The ‘Rudd vs Faceless Men’ fight is the deep, dark structure underneath the whole fiasco of the Rudd execution, the Rudd campaign to undermine Gillard, and the eventual reforming of a ‘Rudd camp’.
As I stood with the gaggle of journalists surrounding Bill Shorten on the night of Rudd’s comeback, I took a call on my mobile from the source that had first explained the Shorten carbon-backflip story.
That source had told me just days earlier that “Shorten will do whatever it takes to get Rudd to run”, because the only sure-fire way to get rid of Rudd was to have him contest the election and lose.
As Shorten arrived to tell us he’d defected to the Rudd camp, my source just said, “See? I told you.” Some have even suggested the apocryphal ‘petition’ to get Rudd to run came not from the Rudd camp, but from Shorten himself. I guess we’ll know when the explosive memoirs of all these players are written in a decade’s time.
Let me stress that this is only a theory, though one reinforced in numerous private conversations with Labor, Coalition and independent MPs and staffers.
The decisive win for the ‘faceless men’ would be a shellacking at the polls for Rudd, which could well be the result of Saturday’s election.
However, Rudd has now raised the prospect of hanging on to power within Labor. If the election result is closer than current polling suggests, Rudd is likely to argue that only he can win the argument over the “greatest moral challenge of our time”, with just the hint of an outside chance that he could win power at the double dissolution election.
To understand how that could happen, two factors must be considered.
Firstly, it is six long years since the end of the Howard era and memories have faded of the protest marches on capital city streets over issues such as industrial relations and the Iraq conflict – large cohorts of unionists were at every march.
Newspaper headlines in those days baited Howard daily, and built a bogeyman of his IR laws in much the same way as they have turned carbon pricing into a demonic foe in the past three years. It is likely that Abbott’s early months in power would start to generate similar protests and similar headlines.
Secondly, much of the Abbott agenda is still secret (Abbott’s secret fightback plan, August 27). However, after this general election the fig leaf will be removed and the Coalition’s plan will be there in all its glory – yes, it will be many months until the various inquiries such as the Commission of Audit are complete, but Abbott will have to start ‘doing’ things, and Labor and the unions will start the kind of pitched policy battles seen in the Howard years.
Moreover, there are plenty of signs that unemployment will be rising, GDP growth moderating further, the dollar falling (good for GDP, but bad for those used to overseas holidays and flash cars) and the boats most likely continuing to come – Labor’s even more draconian boat arrivals policy isn’t working, throwing doubt on whether Abbott’s plan will do any better.
So it is quite feasible for Rudd to argue, the day after the election, that “this ain’t over, folks”. Caucus members will have to vote with great intestinal fortitude if they are to pick Shorten over Rudd.
Do they try again with a man who is still one of the best orators and salesmen (and worst policy makers) the Labor Party has ever seen, or try a double dissolution election with Shorten and possibly lose even more ground, and more Labor MP and staffer jobs, to Abbott?
To Labor's old guard, Rudd looks like a man who won't stop running until there's nothing of the ALP left to lead.
I was curious to see what people thought about the upcoming election.
Of course we could look at other polls but i believe APF members do not really represent the public at large (we are clearly more intelligent and much better looking). FWIW i believe kevin might scrape through - he is very clever and will stop at nothing IMO
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