Sources have told Fairfax Media that Mr Rudd has now settled on the date and will fire the starter's gun on what promises to be one of the most intense political contests in memory.
The election campaign comes within days of an extraordinary mini-budget designed to position the government to address changing economic circumstances.
Softening conditions could force an extra 70,000 Australians out of work, as growth slows and Commonwealth revenues collapse by a staggering $33.3 billion over the next four years.
The worsening picture has shredded Labor's budget forecasts which were set just 10 weeks ago, creating a big political headache for the government.
Mr Rudd enjoys a solid personal lead over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the respective parties are more evenly poised on 50 per cent each in a series of recent opinion polls.
Australia's jobless rate is officially expected to climb to 6.25 per cent in 2013-14 and 2014-15. The last time the jobless rate was above 6.25 per cent was in September 2002 (6.3 per cent that month in trend terms).
Falling terms of trade and declining tax revenues have sent this year's projected deficit $12 billion higher to $30.1 billion, despite the combined $17.4 billion in spending cuts. A promised balanced budget in 2015-16 has gone by the wayside, despite Treasurer Chris Bowen and Finance Minister Penny Wong sticking with a promised surplus in 2016-17.
But to get there, they plan to send the national balance sheet deeper into the red, first with projected deficits of $24 billion in 2014-15, coming back to $5 billion in the red in 2015-16.
In the job for little over a month, Mr Bowen laid much of the blame at the feet of a slowing Chinese economy. But the opposition attacked the revised economic statement, with its treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, describing Labor's economic management as ''chaotic'' and its budget ''in free fall''.
Mr Hockey said nearly 800,000 Australians were now likely to be jobless in coming months.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
He's got to get in there whilst the going is as good as it gets for him.
Upping tax on smokes and all that, they're being entirely blamed for our lame ponzi economy, and the truth can't be talked about.
Swanning around at the g20 would look bad. He better not talk Chinese again either. Tall Poopy.
The PNG'ers don't like that we're giving them our boat people, so racist. I'm offended.
Hi Moops
You are back Mel & I were concerned For your wellbeing....
A thought did occur that perhaps you were busy with a new girl...maybe there was some hope for you ?wak:
I actually missed you ..you are quite a unique ..RETARD
That is all
Yeah Politics is shit. Any monkey can perform ... It seems
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Yeah Politics is shit. Any monkey can perform ... It seems
Not really, you have to be good at hiding that you're an idiot. Not something you're good at.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
That's what the online bookies believed last time i checked. Im thinking of taking a small punt in the other direction and purchasing an LPG fitout with the proceeds. Im very clever you know.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
That's what the online bookies believed last time i checked. Im thinking of taking a small punt in the other direction and purchasing an LPG fitout with the proceeds. Im very clever you know.
What's an LPG fitout? You gonna whack it in your Hyundai?
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has opted for a September 7 election and in doing so has opened up a couple of potential economic data risks which could be key issues in the final week of the campaign.
The calendar of economic data and events is full of important, market moving and even vote moving information in the final week before we go to the polls on September 7. On September 3 there is the meeting of the Reserve Bank board, which will be complemented by data on building approvals on the 2nd, retail sales and the balance of payments on the 3rd, the critically important GDP data on the 4th and international trade on the 5th.
Each of these numbers, plus those released during August, will be viewed from the perspective of economic management. As I wrote a week ago (Rudd's last chance to avoid an economic wildcard, July 29), any weak data will hurt the government electorally, while strong news will be embraced by the government as it works to reiterate its economic management credentials.
In addition to these releases of official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, that final week will also see TD Securities release its monthly inflation gauge, while Dun & Bradstreet’s business expectations survey and the various purchasing manager’s indices for manufacturing, construction and services will also hit the screens.
The data flow is usually something of a lottery for the monthly releases, and even the quarterly information on business investment, GDP and the balance of payments often throws up a data ‘shock’.
The government will obviously be hoping that the flow of news will err on the strong side, especially the GDP outcome for the June quarter just three days before polling day. While it might be pushing it to say the Coalition is hoping for weak data, if the news is soft, expect to see Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey ramping up their rhetoric and economic emergencies and the like.
In choosing September 7, Rudd has ensured that there is only one more monthly labour force release before election day and that comes up this Thursday when the July jobs and unemployment news is released. One problem with going to the polls on September 14 was that the August labour force data are released on September 12. With the forward indicators of the jobs market showing risks of higher unemployment in the next few months – indeed Treasury is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise to 6.25 per cent – the September 7 polling date avoids the risk of a nasty jump in the unemployment rate as the voters head into the polling booths.
After an all but certain interest rate cut tomorrow from the Reserve Bank, the board meets again on September 3 and this meeting could be a doozie if the Bank feels it needs to cut interest rates again.
From this distance, a rate cut in September looks to be an unlikely proposition, but if the data flow before then – plus the news from China and the rest of the global economy – turns sour, an interest rate cut four days from voting could still occur. If so, it would dominate campaigning, at least for a few days.
Statistical and data quirks aside, the economy is in sound shape leading into the election and with policy stimulus coming through via low interest rates, the falling Australian dollar and a slightly larger budget deficit, it looks like a great election to win. Next year is shaping up to have the strongest economic growth since 2007 regardless of what the data flow over the next five weeks has to offer.
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