Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Oh dear - it's dropped below 10% for Perth. It's no longer double figures. Looks like the sky is falling.
My prediction is well on track 15% growth for the year and ABS shows Perth up 11% up to June 30th. Since then other indices have Perth up a further 3 to 4% in just the last 10 weeks. This brings us very close to 15% growth if not above it, as most indices are more bearish in figures then the ABS.
It is looking like a very strong build up for Spring and Summer for Perth. They are already calling a property boom over east and they are around half the growth of Perth, so what is Perth currently in, you decide.
It is sad you have missed out on so much growth and cannot buy in at lower prices, but you were warned. In another year you will be looking back and seeing Perth prices 20%+ above the bottom of the market. You missed the boat, we didn't.
My prediction is well on track 15% growth for the year and ABS shows Perth up 11% up to June 30th. Since then other indices have Perth up a further 3 to 4% in just the last 10 weeks. This brings us very close to 15% growth if not above it, as most indices are more bearish in figures then the ABS.
It is looking like a very strong build up for Spring and Summer for Perth. They are already calling a property boom over east and they are around half the growth of Perth, so what is Perth currently in, you decide.
It is sad you have missed out on so much growth and cannot buy in at lower prices, but you were warmed. In another year you will be looking back and seeing Perth prices 20%+ above the bottom of the market. You missed the boat, we didn't.
Catweasel say it might believe its narrative.
And consciously or sub-consciously believe.
If a former, it possibly be the charlatan,
and a latter,
it could be learned behavior drummed in through a socialization or education.
Or it could simply be try to get reaction in sandpit.
Which bit of you missed the bottom of the market do you not understand ?
I think you may have missed the top.
mel
21 Aug 2013, 11:58 AM
everything is relative Cat and our rates are simply too high by comparison
i don't know what's going to happen in ten years time but the next 18 months are clear.
we talked about this a while ago, remember?
The next 18 months could see Asia implode as QE is wound back in the US. There are many possible outcomes. Some are prettier than others. I don't think any are forseen, and I don't think we have been at this point in history before. So it's all text book theory.
everything is relative Cat and our rates are simply too high by comparison
i don't know what's going to happen in ten years time but the next 18 months are clear.
we talked about this a while ago, remember?
High compared to what?
Other countries are only of concern in controlling the value of the currency.
The other two areas: domestic demand and inflation are our own business.
Our rates are, if anything, too low, certainly on a state by state basis, given our low rates of unemployment.
In this regard, in WA in particular, they are blowing asset bubbles in the housing market.
I would suggest that Tasmania needs rates at this level and WA, for now, most decidedly does not.
For further discussion on this subject see minutes of last RBA board meeting.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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