Peter I have not inc the last Q due to the lag. Yep, higher than last year and half of what it was.
Paul, you have included both Q1 qnd Q2 2013 in the data. Q3 doesn't finish until the end of next month. Of course you have included the most recent quarter in your data, and we all know that the data for Q2 and perhaps even for Q1 is incomplete.
It's not difficult to make a case for the most recent quarter to be in line with the prior 3 quarters, which would mean that the last 12 months is well up on the preceding 9 quarters. The fact that the market hasn't gone from the bottom directly up to the peak is irrelevant, it has improved considerably. Why you choose to deny that is beyond me.
The graph is right before your eyes..
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
The short answer is that this will prove to be another very auspicious time for anyone to take ownership of QLD assets when looked back upon in the fullness of time.
Paul, you have included both Q1 qnd Q2 2013 in the data. Q3 doesn't finish until the end of next month. Of course you have included the most recent quarter in your data, and we all know that the data for Q2 and perhaps even for Q1 is incomplete.
It's not difficult to make a case for the most recent quarter to be in line with the prior 3 quarters, which would mean that the last 12 months is well up on the preceding 9 quarters. The fact that the market hasn't gone from the bottom directly up to the peak is irrelevant, it has improved considerably. Why you choose to deny that is beyond me.
The graph is right before your eyes..
Quite correct Peter, it has improved but the real question is with FHB at 11% will the ladder get top heavy and wobble or fall over. By the way, I have not denied the growth that is before our eyes. That was a given. My internals tell me it will not double to what is was and that is my point. Besides I am quite fine with increasing volumes as long as the mean tracks wage growth.
If we go back to the graph which you supplied, you will see that prices peaked in 2010 some 3 whole years after the peak sales period finished in 2007.
It will be interesting to see if volumes and prices are actually linked. It is all a guess I suppose.
I used to believe that the market needs FHB's but it has been proven over recent years that it is not the case. Of course sales volumes and prices are linked, but as prices rise many sellers take their homes off the market, so sales volumes fall and stock on the market contracts.
Note that according to your graph the peaks and troughs run about 12 months behind sales volumes. If that time lag remains then recent increases in volumes haven't fed into prices yet.
Can you do a similar printout for the Gold Coast?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I used to believe that the market needs FHB's but it has been proven over recent years that it is not the case. Of course sales volumes and prices are linked, but as prices rise many sellers take their homes off the market, so sales volumes fall and stock on the market contracts.
Note that according to your graph the peaks and troughs run about 12 months behind sales volumes. If that time lag remains then recent increases in volumes haven't fed into prices yet.
Can you do a similar printout for the Gold Coast?
Noted and I do see your point re longer term lag but stress it is still an 'if'... Will do the GC later tonight or tomorrow.
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