Yes, I accept that such behaviour exists but it is well known (almost science) and ought to be quickly reflected in the price just as much as a profit warning. It can surely be programmed by the folks who dominate the market with their billions, leading to the juice being squeezed out. It would be very surprising if such behavioural activity were only known of by one side of a trade. I'd also be very surprised if amateurs "unwilling to accept losses" had any significant effect on prices in trillion dollar markets like gold and the DOW dominated by massive investment houses.
Well, a break through a support or resistance typically gets reflected in the price very quickly, and quite sharply. You'll remember a couple of weeks ago I pointed out that there was support at around the 1360-1370 mark. It bounced off that twice, but when it pushed through it it plummeted below 1300 very fast. The current weak support is just below where the price is now so 1280 is as good a number as any. If it drops through it will most likely go to 1180-1190 very fast and test that a few times before deciding which way to go.
Actually much of the theory assumes that the price in the market is dictated by the trillion-dollar houses who do their trades in secret, but because the trades are so large they take weeks or months to complete, and you can see their tracks in the price signal. Amateurs like me work in positions that take seconds to open and close so we have some chance to take advantage.
It's all pretty black-magicky and I find it hard to defend what seems like voodoo. But I do know that since I started requiring a technical as well as a fundamental reason (as opposed to just a fundamental reason) to do a trade, my performance has improved a lot. Whether that is because technicals work, or because it has simply made me think more about trades, or because it has made me do less trades, or because it has added more discipline to my trades, I don't really care. It's the results I like.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
It's all pretty black-magicky and I find it hard to defend what seems like voodoo. But I do know that since I started requiring a technical as well as a fundamental reason (as opposed to just a fundamental reason) to do a trade, my performance has improved a lot. Whether that is because technicals work, or because it has simply made me think more about trades, or because it has made me do less trades, or because it has added more discipline to my trades, I don't really care. It's the results I like.
Thanks for your thoughts. Good to see you are open to the reasons for your success. Another possible reason for your change in performance in the past compared to now might be that conditions have changed. Trading styles (or whatever you want to call it) probably perform differently in different conditions. At the higher levels there's the buy and hold, bull, bear stuff which all have their periods of success and failure dictated by general economic conditions eg stable volatile etc. There must be some differences in style even at the day trading or seconds/minutes trading level. It's surely impossible to be a complete robot and some style factors must be present which will relate and interact with prevailing conditions. Never been a day trader but I'm satisfied that my own trading performance, periods of gains and periods of losses, have all resulted from the coincidence between the conditions which happened to pertain and my own inclinations/style. I didn't know the future. Good luck, but maybe you don't need it.
Thanks for your thoughts. Good to see you are open to the reasons for your success. Another possible reason for your change in performance in the past compared to now might be that conditions have changed. Trading styles (or whatever you want to call it) probably perform differently in different conditions. At the higher levels there's the buy and hold, bull, bear stuff which all have their periods of success and failure dictated by general economic conditions eg stable volatile etc. There must be some differences in style even at the day trading or seconds/minutes trading level. It's surely impossible to be a complete robot and some style factors must be present which will relate and interact with prevailing conditions. Never been a day trader but I'm satisfied that my own trading performance, periods of gains and periods of losses, have all resulted from the coincidence between the conditions which happened to pertain and my own inclinations/style. I didn't know the future. Good luck, but maybe you don't need it.
Yeah, I forgot to add the conditions bit. It's only been about 7 months.
However I am starting to get somewhat convinced it has something to do with trading style rather than conditions, since
(a) I can see the improvement coinciding almost exactly with the conscious change in style, and (b) there have been a couple of down and up cycles since then and the relative performance improvement is seen in both directions of the market.
I retain an open mind on the subject and certainly think you need more than 7 months to judge the performance of any system. I don't day trade either. That bird has well and truly flown and been killed by the algo traders. My horizon varies from a minimum of a week to a maximum of a few months for pure trades and indefinite for things I class as investments.
Also, if you refuse to do a trade that is not technically indicated you'll never try to catch a falling knife. That alone could explain much if not all of the difference.
Buying into gold at the moment definitely qualifies as trying to catch a falling knife. Let's watch what gold does in the next few months and see if it adds any data to the analysis. Gold is the perfect vehicle to judge the effectiveness of technicals because it almost completely defies up-front fundamental analysis.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
You have 3 forces at work, fundamentals, investment psychology, and price manipulation at the highest levels of banking and government. Technical analysis, squiggles, trend lines etc, is just a subset of the manipulation process.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
MMM Despite all the negative situation thats with the gold I was really wanting to read your thoughts. I am diisappointed.
You...... Chicken
Hello blondie , Ive been busy the last couple of days and have not have a change to get on , unlike some of you who never seem to get off.
I just read though the thread, its been busy,noticed just before you said you were sucking up to me before ,yesterday or last nigt, and then call me chicken. so why so desperate to here what I have to say, anyway you still want my thoughts on what caused the great depression or you want explantaions on the recent gold and whats been discussed here lately. I should have time to discuss the great depression if I have no more interuptions, but will discuss the gold and whats been said on the thread lately.
Some have discussed support lines and levels and chartists and the gold dropping and hanging around the 1280 mark, fed stiimulus ,tapering perhaps and more money printing, you guys have been busy, and I see you seem very interested in the whole thing.
Anyway I will start somewhere on the gold thing first and the great depression thing a little later. As for gold he have seen it pulling back , not just over the last week or so but over the last couple of years now. With all this uncertainty of the fed lately,and the government shutdown, one might think it may be supportive of gold , but the public never really know whats going on ,either do the experts . We had bernanke lying to evrybody only a month or so back saying they would tapper some of their stimulus, we had all the experts listening to his bullshit and believing it too, they then relay this to the public, so they here bernanke telling them, then they here all the so called experts telling them and they believe it.
If they were to tapper some of their stimulus, it would indicate to the uneduacted the the US economy may be improving and that may indicate a possible rise in interest rates. Both would be bad for gold, bernanke is shit scared of gold and the price rising, you have seen him in some of those videos I showed you the other day, certainly does not look confortable. It appears to me these lies of tappering were a nothing more than an attempt to bring down the gold price, I mean why did he lie about tappering , what was there to achieve in doing so, was he trying to strengthen peoples imagination of those who actually purcahase bonds, was he trying to put some faith into the stock market perhaps knowing that congress was not happy with spending and that a government shutdown was looming, was he trying to pull people from gold so they may put more into the stock market and bonds by making them think that the economy was improving and that they would tapper.
I dont know exactly what bernanke it upto , but most likely one of those things or all of those things I metioned above. When he did increase the stimulus program last time from the 40 or so billion a month to the more recent 85 billion a month I would of expected him to engineer it in a way that would of made him stimulate more than he needed, so that a latter stage he could of reduced some of it in an effort to fool people that the US economy was recover. Perhaps this time he has just used his bluff ,knowing it would have a simliar effect , and may give him the chance to decrease it later and use his ace in case of emrgency. Or maybe he has not stimualated more than he needed to and has no room to move, these are things I dont know. So in one way or another he has lied to give the effect of reduced stimulus and put it in peoples minds that it may happen. I will have to continue next post , I am running out of room on this small laptop thing I am using and it keeps rolling back up the page on me so I cant see what I am typing and makes it near impossible to correct any spelling errors.
You have 3 forces at work, fundamentals, investment psychology, and price manipulation at the highest levels of banking and government. Technical analysis, squiggles, trend lines etc, is just a subset of the manipulation process.
It's all a conspiracy is it of secrets & brainwashing??
Sorry gold bug the facts are not good, I'm not a gold person but it's just common sense.
Your sphincter must not be too tight any more
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
You have 3 forces at work, fundamentals, investment psychology, and price manipulation at the highest levels of banking and government. Technical analysis, squiggles, trend lines etc, is just a subset of the manipulation process.
Love it how the goldbugs call trades they don't like "manipulation".
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
OK , just continuing from my previuos post before. I was talking about bernanke and the fed stimulus,enough of that for now, now to what some others have been discussing ,about the price of gold , support lines or levels and chartists.
We have seen the talk of chartists and all there lines, and while to some they may not understaand it, it does have some meaning to it, in some share prices for example and perhaps gold prices can be shown in upward and downward movements, but if the stock market collapse in will probably mean jak shit, buts that only because things are so unstable these days thanks to the fed and all their ccontinual non stop overborrowing over all the years, if this did not happen either would any stock market collapses, if the US was a good economy and owed no money then prices would be stable, would not be as high as they are and would not collapse, simple as that.
Back to all those lines , in a safe and secure economy where there was never all this over borrrowing , these lines show support for a particular stock, going on fundamentals of the company and the economy it is working in, sometimes people get carried away or all want to jump on this great comapny and things can become overbought, same as gold, although its hard to say where the price of gold should really be ,its not like you can read the exact fundamentals like you could a company on the stock market. In saying all that in todays bs market ,they are probably more phsycological because the market is overpriced and should be nowhere near where it is.
So these lines show levels of support from previous falls or rises. I will give you the example using the gold price, if you were to look at gold price graph over the last two years ,you would just see it as collapsing , but if you were to look at a gold price graph over the last ten years,if somebody was to print one up for me you will see this more clearly but I will expalin first. it was at around 500 dollars for many years running ,maybe ten or so prior to about 2004, it dropped down to maybe around 250 in say 2002 -03, before it bagan its decent as people began to lose faith in the US dollar, long after ridiculus borring began, and long before the stock market and housing market started to collapse, anyway back to the graph, if you remember back in june ,about the 26th june, the exact day I came on here teling you all what a super bargain buy silver was , it was the exact low for the year ,about the same with gold. gold dropped back to about $1170-$1190. now if you look at the ten year gold graph which is where this long uptrend bagan, you will see the low price for 2004, it then climbed up for many years before having a collapse in 2008, when the stock market collapsed and here you will see another low point, it then climbed up for a few years again before dropping back to arounf 1170 in june, and then started climbing again, if you were to get a ruler , line it up from all the lows over the last ten years, from 2004, then 2008, then 2011 in june , you will see its a perfectly sraight line, it will show you the lower support level I am explaining and shows its exactly on the long term trend after being perhaps over bought after the 2008 collapse of the stock market. So these things tell me that the low for the year was in june, and maybe the low for some time if the long term trend continues as it has, bernanke and his bs may disturb it, but if it was to drop below $1170 then it may be in a bit of trouble. What this also possibly shows me , is that we could be in the running for another bit of a stock market collapse, you may want to look at those longer term levels and see where it might be headed, just for fun the stock market collapse in the great depression began around the 28-29th october.
Did I say I didn't like the manipulation? As long as you know it is occuring you can factor it into your investment decisions. I'm not purturbed by it myself, now that I have accepted it, because I know the fundamental truth, that gold matches inflation, always has for 5000 years of history. It's why gold in Australian dollars is up from $450/oz in 2002, the point in time not coincidentally where Australia became a net importer of oil and inflation began to really take off.
The evidence for manipulation in the gold market is as blatant as the manipulation in the property market but they both work towards different ends. The manipulation in the property markets was maintain an ever increasing need to expand the money supply, to avoid default of the global economy. And it worked, up until 2007.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
Did I say I didn't like the manipulation? As long as you know it is occuring you can factor it into your investment decisions. I'm not purturbed by it myself, now that I have accepted it, because I know the fundamental truth, that gold matches inflation, always has for 5000 years of history. It's why gold in Australian dollars is up from $450/oz in 2002, the point in time not coincidentally where Australia became a net importer of oil and inflation began to really take off.
The evidence for manipulation in the gold market is as blatant as the manipulation in the property market but they both work towards different ends. The manipulation in the property markets was maintain an ever increasing need to expand the money supply, to avoid default of the global economy. And it worked, up until 2007.
manipulation by it's very nature will mean you won't know about it until it's too late, or it wouldn't work would it.
what ever happened to the count, he used to pop up with similar hair brained theories and claims.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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