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The Gold Bull is DEAD. Long Live The Gold Bull.; It ain't over yet flyboy.
Topic Started: 18 Jul 2013, 12:53 AM (16,401 Views)
Foxy
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Zero is coming...

If you value gold buy it.
If you value art buy it.
If you value houses buy them.
If you value farm land buy it.
If you value mining leases buy them.
If you value shares buy them.
Supply and demand people supply and demand.
Or a mix of all of the above.
Peter from Gnarabup
:to:
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Blondie girl
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Catweasel
11 Oct 2013, 01:24 PM
Catweasel say a EQ more the important than I the Q.

But what a frighten is mouse interpret of a economics as a science,

where not much more than the prophecy,

which tap into mouse's anthro mind.

It can even see in a sandpit,

where mouzealots will taunt,

with narrative "prove" by a peer into recent the past.

And anti-mouzealot get the hot and frustrate,

Catweasel's own the little focus group.

And it treat its specimens with a compassion it deserve.
Catman
It is the imbalance of the logical & the emotional that can fail
Both the mouse & anti mouse zealot
Each individual life journey consist of the pleasure & pain
It is not only what is experienced but how 1 travel the pain & pleasure
The outcome is ...
Either strength or destruction of its
Essence or mojo...


Some do not sadly come back from the cliff edge
To this world.


Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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miw
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barns
11 Oct 2013, 09:38 AM
Correct - unless you are just happy to be gambling with volatility, chartistism is an absolute meaningless waste of time. As an investment philosophy I'd put it even with horse racing or sports betting (unless you have inside information on horses or sports teams in which case those are better investment strategies than following stock charts).
......and yet, resistance and support lines *do* work.

No doubt there is an element of self-fulfilling prophesy in there, but you ignore them at your peril as a trader. In the short term technicals are better than fundamentals. In the long term, fundamentals win out.

Wisebear
11 Oct 2013, 10:07 AM
Professional taders also love stop/loss. Can you believe that they actually sell you a product that involves you committing to a trade in advance at a price lower than the market? Unbelieveable. I once saw details of someone who put in a large stop/loss substatially below the market price on a thinly traded stock. The market makers then just sold all the way down to the stop loss then bought back cheaply when it triggered. The stock finished the day unchanged but someone got fleeced.
It's happened to me as well. You need to have some kind of stop loss, but on thinly traded you run the risk of having your stop popped by the market makers if it is in the system. The solution is to not use stops on thinly-traded stocks, or have you stops sitting out of the market on a conditional order that the market makers cannot see. Making sure your stops are not on even numbers where there are likely to be a lot of other stops also helps.
Edited by miw, 11 Oct 2013, 03:58 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Wisebear
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miw
11 Oct 2013, 03:49 PM
...and yet, resistance and support lines *do* work.
Unfortunately they don't, but if they did then high frequency trading programs would queeze all the value out of them until they didn't.
So why do you still believe they do? Just blind faith I expect.
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Strindberg
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Wisebear
11 Oct 2013, 09:32 AM
Chartist certainly talk a load of crap. All those charts covered in lines, triangles, flags, supports, resistances and strangly named formations mean absolutely nothing. This is just another profession that's likes to pretend that they can tell the future but can't. The very best that can be said is that, as you say, sometimes enough religious zealot followers can create a critical mass to support their forecast. Professional traders love these set ups, they get you to believe one thing then take the market in the opposite direction. I'm always amazed by the vast number of gullible people that believe any rubbish that's put in front of them.
I agree. Future price changes will largely be the result of future, as yet unknown, events as they are revealed.

Some past, yet to be revealed, events may not be reflected in today's prices. But you would need restricted inside information to benefit from that.
Edited by Strindberg, 11 Oct 2013, 05:08 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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miw
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Wisebear
11 Oct 2013, 04:40 PM
Unfortunately they don't, but if they did then high frequency trading programs would queeze all the value out of them until they didn't.
So why do you still believe they do? Just blind faith I expect.
I don't "believe" in them. I use them to make money.

You misunderstand how the HFT programs work. They pick everyone's pocket out of the bid-ask spread, and they make their money out of very short-term inefficiencies in the market that only computers can take advantage of, or they try to discover and front-run the next small move by stuffing the order channel or scanning the news wires for keywords. Most of the time they have minimal impact on the market action. Every now and again they have a big impact which is usually bad.

Automatic trading programs that use trend following techniques based on moving averages, etc. have sucked most/all of the profit out of short-term trend following though. Hence the death of the day trader.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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doubleview
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Strindberg
11 Oct 2013, 05:05 PM
But you would need restricted inside information to benefit from that.
What can you tell us about restricted inside information !!

I have a feeling you might know a lot about this topic.
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miw
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Strindberg
11 Oct 2013, 05:05 PM
I agree. Future price changes will largely be the result of future, as yet unknown, events as they are revealed.

Some past, yet to be revealed, events may not be reflected in today's prices. But you would need restricted inside information to benefit from that.
Behavioural finance people will tell you that resistance and support works because people are unwilling to accept losses and will always try to sell out at a slightly higher price than they bought at, if they can. So when the price rises to a level at which a lot of people bought, further rise will be stymied until all the people who want to get out at evens have got out, for example. Looking at my own natural behaviour, it seems to make sense.

There are a whole heap of other technical stuff that seems to go further and further into voodoo, for which the explanations get less and less convincing as far as I am concerned, and anyhow lots of them seem applicable only in hindsight.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Strindberg
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miw
11 Oct 2013, 05:37 PM
Behavioural finance people will tell you that resistance and support works because people are unwilling to accept losses and will always try to sell out at a slightly higher price than they bought at, if they can. So when the price rises to a level at which a lot of people bought, further rise will be stymied until all the people who want to get out at evens have got out, for example. Looking at my own natural behaviour, it seems to make sense.
Yes, I accept that such behaviour exists but it is well known (almost science) and ought to be quickly reflected in the price just as much as a profit warning. It can surely be programmed by the folks who dominate the market with their billions, leading to the juice being squeezed out.
It would be very surprising if such behavioural activity were only known of by one side of a trade. I'd also be very surprised if amateurs "unwilling to accept losses" had any significant effect on prices in trillion dollar markets like gold and the DOW dominated by massive investment houses.
Edited by Strindberg, 11 Oct 2013, 06:06 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Andrew Judd
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Gold does not have any significant support until 1150/80 and if that goes it could fall back to 850.

Despite all the hype here a few months ago about the US recovery, deflation is still on the agenda, more QE is not impossible, and tapering could be delayed for years to come.

As crazy as it may sound a Prechtarian deflationary Gold doom is still out there. One of the things Prechter argued was that it would become harder and harder for the powers that be to justify spending more money to solve their problems, and the astonishing fact of the matter is that the US doubled the national debt to get the current result.


Edited by Andrew Judd, 11 Oct 2013, 06:13 PM.
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