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SQM Research: Stock on the market rises 4.8% in May, led by Canberra, Perth and Melbourne; RP Data: Faster house sales reflect stronger market conditions
Topic Started: 11 Jun 2013, 11:34 PM (1,469 Views)
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Canberra, Perth and Melbourne lead 4.8% rise in May residential listings: SQM

By Larry Schlesinger
Tuesday, 11 June 2013

The number of residential properties listed for sale across Australia rose 4.8% over May to a total of 379,158 properties.

All capital cities recorded gains over May with biggest rises over the month occurring in Canberra and Perth - both cities recording 6.3% rises - followed by Melbourne (6%), Sydney (5.5%) and Brisbane (4.6%).

SQM research director Louis Christopher says the across the board month-on-month rise in listings were “in part” to be expected as the market bounces back during May, after a dip in April due to the Easter holidays.

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“Overall, if the market was indeed stronger, stock levels would be decreasing despite of seasonality.
“However, we see that this is not the case as yet. It is the opinion of SQM Research that the current market is still in the very early stages of recovery," he says.

Christopher says Melbourne is a bit of a concern as year-on-year there are now more listings (up 1.2%).

“We need to see stock being absorbed first before upward pricing momentum can occur,” Christopher says.

Melbourne has by far the most stock on market with 49,268 residential listings.

Brisbane is second with 28,205 listings – up 2.4% over the past year.

Both have more listings than the bigger property market of Sydney, which has recorded the steepest decline in listings over the past year.

Year-on-year, Sydney listings are down 10.1% to 27,761 properties for sale while Perth listings are down 2.3% over the past year.

“Except for Sydney, Perth and Darwin, residential property listings across the country still remain elevated and stubbornly high. Melbourne is a prime example of this, “ says Christopher.

“After a period earlier this year where it appeared that stock was being absorbed, we now have a situation where there is now even more stock on the market than what we had this time last year. Auction clearance rates may well be higher in that city but vendors seem to be using this period to offload their properties.

“As stated previously, what we have ahead of us is only a modest to moderate housing recovery.

Christopher says the strongest cities out there “are by far Sydney, Perth and Darwin”.

SQM expects Perth to slow down later this year.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/trends/canberra-perth-and-melbourne-lead-48-rise-in-may-residential-listings-sqm-louichristopher/2013061062060
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Faster house sales reflect stronger market conditions over first quarter of 2013: Cameron Kusher

By Cameron Kusher
Tuesday, 11 June 2013

RP Data's research for April shows a sharp fall in the amount of time Australian residential properties are spending on the market. This is reflective of stronger housing market conditions over the first quarter of the year.

This is a great result, but we need to question whether the current rapid pace of sales can be maintained.

Across most capital cities, the current average time on market is lower than at the same time last year. In fact, the time on market is lower across each capital city except for Brisbane and Hobart.

Time on market for capital cities:

Sydney - 35 days
Melbourne - 38 days
Canberra - 49 days
Brisbane – 72 days
Adelaide – 68 days
Hobart - 110 days
Darwin and Perth - 52 days

Although time on market is at quite low levels it will be interesting to see whether or not these levels can be maintained with lower levels of new stock coming on to the market and the recent successive monthly falls in capital city home values.

On the other hand, sales volumes have been improving from a very low base indicating that if vendors set appropriate prices on their homes, they should be able to attract buyers and sell the home in shorter period of time.

Across the country, the average time on market for all homes is currently recorded at 60 days and at the same time a year ago, the figure sat at a slightly higher 67 days.

The national average time on market for a house is currently 62 days compared to 68 days a year ago. For units it was 61 days a year ago compared to 51 days currently.

Based on the latest time on market results, average time on market was abnormally high over the previous three months. This performance can be attributed to a spike is seasonal activity where in January, and to a lesser extent February, the housing market was interrupted by a larger proportion of buyers, sellers and facilitators such as real estate agents, conveyances and financiers being on holidays during the period.

Taking seasonality into account, the surge in selling time was much higher than normal over the early months of 2013. RP Data didn’t see the average selling time fall by as much as normal in March.

It is difficult to decipher exactly what has happened during this period where we saw longer selling time trends occurring in-line with a sustained drop in total listings. Potentially it could be that stock sitting on the market for a long time started to shift. Because the time on market figure is only calculated across those properties that sell over the month, a higher proportion of older stock selling will bias the results higher.

Across the combined capital cities, homes are currently taking an average of 50 days to sell compared to 60 days at the same time a year ago. Over the previous three months, the time on market was significantly higher; however, the figure has now returned to similar levels as those in November 2012 (49 days).

Capital city houses are currently taking an average of 53 days to sell and units 44 days compared to 61 days and 56 days respectively a year ago. Similar to the national results, there was an unusually high average time on market for the first three months of the year.

Looking further into the relationship between the six months change in capital city home values, and the average days on market for capital city homes, we found that when values are rising, the number of days it takes to sell a home is inherently lower.

On the other hand, when values are falling or growth is more moderate, the time on market tends to be higher. Of course this is a logical relationship but it is interesting to note that the change in direction of value movements actually tends to slightly precede the change in the number of days in market. This is indicative of the slight delay in the market catching up to the prevalent market conditions.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/faster-house-sales-reflect-stronger-market-conditions-over-first-quarter-of-2013-cameron-kusher-rpdata/2013061062053
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earthsta
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More stock on market, fewer buyers..... More pain for the specufestors.
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Modest rise in national residential listings, with Perth and Hobart going against the trend: SQM

By Jonathan Chancellor
Tuesday, 05 November 2013

The level of residential property listings around the nation rose minimally during the month of October, with national stock levels increasing by 1.5% and coming to a total of 347,056 according to recent figures released by SQM Research.

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This figure represents a decrease of 3.5% when compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, October 2012.

Sydney has once again recorded the most substantial yearly decrease in stock levels, falling by 17.3% over the past year to a total of 24,683.

Canberra recorded the highest monthly rise in listings, increasing by 5.9% during October and coming to a total of 3,547.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/modest-rise-in-national-residential-listings-with-perth-and-hobart-going-against-the-trend-sqm/2013110466167
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newjez
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Canberra was interesting, considering.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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newjez
5 Nov 2013, 11:59 AM
Canberra was interesting, considering.
The talk of mass sackings ala Campbell Newman have disappeared in Canberra.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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stinkbug
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peter fraser
5 Nov 2013, 12:05 PM
The talk of mass sackings ala Campbell Newman have disappeared in Canberra.
Everyone here in cbr is waiting for next May's budget...
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Mike
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newjez
5 Nov 2013, 11:59 AM
Canberra was interesting, considering.
Perth had the largest fall in stock in October, which goes with the high volume of sales we have seen in the past month and now Reiwa reporting 1.9% price growth in the 3 months up to October. Very interesting.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Will the number of properties for sale match market demand?

November 6, 2013 By Louis Christopher

Our latest stats at SQM Research reveal that the level of residential property listings around the nation rose minimally during the month of October, with national stock levels increasing by 1.5% and coming to a total of 347,056.

Although the monthly change in listings is considered modest in comparison to previous months, the level of stock has been recorded a substantially lower figure than that of the corresponding period in 2012, revealing that stock is indeed being absorbed at a much faster rate during 2013.

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A city by city break down however, reveals that both Canberra and Sydney experienced a surge in stock during October, with for sale listings increasing by 5.9% and 4.7% respectively for these two capital cities.

That being said, Sydney’s year on year comparisons continue to record staggering decreases, with the city falling by -17.3% in stock levels since October 2012.

Of particular interest is Darwin’s 13.4% yearly increase. This considerable rise in stock levels is in line with SQM Research’s forecast for this city in 2014, where we have predicted a slowdown in property prices.

In summary:

October has recorded a fairly benign increase in real estate listings which was similar in magnitude to the increase recorded this time last year. Increases in listings during the spring months tend to be part of the normal seasonality of the residential property market.

To this end there has been nothing too abnormal in the results other than I note what now seems to be a continued uptrend in supply for the Darwin housing market, which suggests to me a forthcoming slowdown in that city.

Hobart on the other hand is now providing a signal that there is now a bottom in the market there after nearly three years of dwelling price falls.

Going forward, I expect a lift in listings for November in most cities as what is normally the case for this time of year.

Read more: http://realestatetalk.com.au/will-the-number-of-properties-for-sale-match-market-demand/
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SQM Stock on the Market - November 2013

Figures released by SQM Research reveal that the level of residential property listings around the nation rose substantially during the month of November, with national stock levels increasing by 6.3% and coming to a total of 369,057. Year on year, stock is still down marginally, revealing a -2.4% decrease on a national level since November 2012.

SQM Research has observed that there are certain factors which need to be taken into account in regards to this monthly rise; firstly that there were five weekends during the month of November, rather than the usual four, and secondly – the issue of seasonality.

It is our opinion where seasonality is concerned, that the “Spring Selling Season” has hit later in the year than usual, with a market uptick in sales listings – especially in Sydney which revealed a 12.8% monthly increase in stock levels during November 2013.

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What must also be taken into consideration is that each capital city continues to tell its own story, rather than the national figure reflecting the state of the overall market as a whole. SQM Research stands by its forecast made back in September 2013: that Sydney would lead the way in terms of a house price recovery but that this would not necessarily be the case for all capital cities, particularly Canberra.

Indeed this house price recovery continues to be quite locality sensitive with Darwin going against the grain of all other cities (in particular Sydney), recording a 14.3% yearly rise in stock levels.

Managing Director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher says “No doubt, the disruption of the election in September created a lag effect in listings which is coming through now so it is no surprise listings had a large jump in November. Plus, we also had five weekends during the month which added to our monthly counts. Seasonally, listing activity is very strong in the later spring months and is the prime reason why there has been a dip in auction clearance rates in recent weeks. So for now I am not concerned about any new slowdown in the market.”
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