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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,379 Views)
newjez
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Mike
12 Dec 2013, 09:06 AM
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Another all time high yesterday. Can Perth reach 11% growth for the year or higher and hit 5% for the quarter.
I take it the bottom of the market has died. Rp aren't good at adjusting that for Perth. But you never know. It could be booming. The rest of the world is. Why should Perth miss out. Apart from the fact that its economy is out of cycle with the rest of the world. It will happen Mike. But I still think you are too early. But if it can be sustained into the first quarter 2014, I'll concede you're onto something. But at the moment, all you can do is call it statistical fizz.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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newjez
12 Dec 2013, 09:19 AM
I take it the bottom of the market has died. Rp aren't good at adjusting that for Perth. But you never know. It could be booming. The rest of the world is. Why should Perth miss out. Apart from the fact that its economy is out of cycle with the rest of the world. It will happen Mike. But I still think you are too early. But if it can be sustained into the first quarter 2014, I'll concede you're onto something. But at the moment, all you can do is call it statistical fizz.
How is it out of cycle with the rest of the world? Perth suffered a quite severe downturn in the property market during the GFC and is now recovering - just like the UK,Ireland ,US, NZ etc etc.

Perth is selling very well at the moment and that is just a fact. Prices look to be on the rise due to this increased competition for well located homes, and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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skamy
12 Dec 2013, 10:51 AM
How is it out of cycle with the rest of the world? Perth suffered a quite severe downturn in the property market during the GFC and is now recovering - just like the UK,Ireland ,US, NZ etc etc.

Perth is selling very well at the moment and that is just a fact. Prices look to be on the rise due to this increased competition for well located homes, and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building.
I was referring to the economy in general. Would you really say wa economy is in cycle with the UK or US?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Black Panther
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skamy
12 Dec 2013, 10:51 AM
How is it out of cycle with the rest of the world? Perth suffered a quite severe downturn in the property market during the GFC and is now recovering - just like the UK,Ireland ,US, NZ etc etc.

Perth is selling very well at the moment and that is just a fact. Prices look to be on the rise due to this increased competition for well located homes, and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building.
Re "Prices look to be on the rise due to this increased competition for well located homes, and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building. "

Bingo. The bears actually helped strengthen the new up cycle. The irony of it all.

Perth is booming again in part thanks to their fear mongering.
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newjez
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Black Panther
12 Dec 2013, 03:24 PM
Re "Prices look to be on the rise due to this increased competition for well located homes, and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building. "

Bingo. The bears actually helped strengthen the new up cycle. The irony of it all.

Perth is booming again in part thanks to their fear mongering.
It looks like a classic fhb grant tamper shift BP. You'll have to wait to see if it's got legs. The question you need to ask is - what has changed? The answer - not much. So why should things suddenly be different? Hope springs eternal though. Good luck with that.
Edited by newjez, 12 Dec 2013, 05:18 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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JDe
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Perthite
10 Dec 2013, 11:41 PM
Yeah I work in mining luv. Dead.
me 2, at least until I was demobed couple of weeks ago. While things have slowed down from what it used to be I wouldn't go as far as calling it dead, at least not if you are prepared to take shutdown or other maintenance work. More then 80% of the workforce on WA minesites used to come from eastern states, NZ, 457s and expats living in Thailand or Philippines so it is them who will suffer most, unless they are prepared to pay for flights to WA themselves which is not really viable for short swings.
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Mike
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newjez
12 Dec 2013, 09:19 AM
I take it the bottom of the market has died. Rp aren't good at adjusting that for Perth. But you never know. It could be booming. The rest of the world is. Why should Perth miss out. Apart from the fact that its economy is out of cycle with the rest of the world. It will happen Mike. But I still think you are too early. But if it can be sustained into the first quarter 2014, I'll concede you're onto something. But at the moment, all you can do is call it statistical fizz.
The WA economy grew by 5.1% over the past 12 months, unemployment has remained very low. After years of underbuilding during this was always going to happen when confidence returned to the market. If you look at where the bulk of sales are it is in the $600,000+ market. To many buyers chasing to few quality homes. It is an upgrader market that is pushing prices up. FHB remain strong although it has peaked in recent months with the switch to construction, hence building approvals up over 50% in recent times.

Upgraders will remain strong through to April.

The one thing I did get wrong is how strong the market has been so soon, I did not expect to see 10%+ growth this year, I thought we would see that growth in 2014. The pent up demand and overall stronger WA economy has lead to increased demand. You also need to factor in WA has the highest income levels of any state so our potential to buy is greater and pay high prices. Off course if prices rise to quickly they can also fall quickly.

Another dynamic is also at play. Everyone wants to live close to the coast in Perth. You cant keep going north and south forever. That puts greater demand on the existing land close to the coast and within 30km of the CBD, which is mostly developed other then around the Cockburn area which is rapidly being developed. You are seeing strong competition for quality land and houses driving prices. This will be a trend that is repeated over a number of cycles during growth phases and downturns. There is simply not much land left close to the coast and CBD, people are prepared to pay a premium.

I said this a few back. Looking through the raw data closely I have noticed sellers putting the asking prices of properties up within days of being listed out to a few weeks. The rise in asking price I have seen is between $10-80,000. Which is as much as a 10% rise in asking prices soon after being listed. To see the reason call agents or attend home opens, the competition is fierce. Sellers can now command high prices and it is developing into a frenzy in some cases.

Now the price movements support what the raw data has been telling us for months on the ground.
Oh I almost forgot. Another new all time high set today http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth is now up 10.51% for the year and 4.4% this quarter.
Edited by Mike, 12 Dec 2013, 10:49 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Dr Kinetoscope
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Quote:
 
and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building. "
Is there any solid, measurable evidence that 'fear mongering' was responsible for this?
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Blondie girl
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skamy
12 Dec 2013, 10:51 AM
How is it out of cycle with the rest of the world? Perth suffered a quite severe downturn in the property market during the GFC and is now recovering - just like the UK,Ireland ,US, NZ etc etc.

Perth is selling very well at the moment and that is just a fact. Prices look to be on the rise due to this increased competition for well located homes, and the shortage that is the result of 5 years of fear mongering that led to a massive reduction in new home building.
I agree.

There's some suburbs that some should take a serious micro perspective...

A family member of mine has just bought in surburb that gonna increase in future price, I think it's ripe to grow eventually... she has bought a quality home from a x that sells to avoid CGT .the vendor(owner builder) has produced a very QuALITy built home, everything's been done.. The O/ A been signed settlement will take while now.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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newjez
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Mike
12 Dec 2013, 10:46 PM
The WA economy grew by 5.1% over the past 12 months, unemployment has remained very low. After years of underbuilding during this was always going to happen when confidence returned to the market. If you look at where the bulk of sales are it is in the $600,000+ market. To many buyers chasing to few quality homes. It is an upgrader market that is pushing prices up. FHB remain strong although it has peaked in recent months with the switch to construction, hence building approvals up over 50% in recent times.

Upgraders will remain strong through to April.

The one thing I did get wrong is how strong the market has been so soon, I did not expect to see 10%+ growth this year, I thought we would see that growth in 2014. The pent up demand and overall stronger WA economy has lead to increased demand. You also need to factor in WA has the highest income levels of any state so our potential to buy is greater and pay high prices. Off course if prices rise to quickly they can also fall quickly.

Another dynamic is also at play. Everyone wants to live close to the coast in Perth. You cant keep going north and south forever. That puts greater demand on the existing land close to the coast and within 30km of the CBD, which is mostly developed other then around the Cockburn area which is rapidly being developed. You are seeing strong competition for quality land and houses driving prices. This will be a trend that is repeated over a number of cycles during growth phases and downturns. There is simply not much land left close to the coast and CBD, people are prepared to pay a premium.

I said this a few back. Looking through the raw data closely I have noticed sellers putting the asking prices of properties up within days of being listed out to a few weeks. The rise in asking price I have seen is between $10-80,000. Which is as much as a 10% rise in asking prices soon after being listed. To see the reason call agents or attend home opens, the competition is fierce. Sellers can now command high prices and it is developing into a frenzy in some cases.

Now the price movements support what the raw data has been telling us for months on the ground.
Oh I almost forgot. Another new all time high set today http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth is now up 10.51% for the year and 4.4% this quarter.
how much of that growth was in the last quarter Mike? Would that be decelerating growth?
Edited by newjez, 13 Dec 2013, 07:23 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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