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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,438 Views)
Mike
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Sober
12 Jun 2013, 12:40 AM
i doubt it. "Small-target" Abbott has basically locked himself in as "mildly-right-of-Labor" in expenditure and policy terms for his first three years. The main point of difference from the Labor government will involve considerable chest-beating about boats.

The 2016 election, OTOH, will be very interesting indeed.
This will depend on what happens with the Carbon Tax. The Coalition has drawn up detailed plans on the sequence of events it needs to do to have a double dissolution election. The Coalition will not bring in to many tough policies until this is sorted because should it win the senate seats required which is a given in the current climate, Abbott would have total power to do as he please for about 6 years, providing he won the follow on election.

The way it is looking Labour could be out for 9-12 years the size loss they look like taking. It is not just seats, but on the money side of it Labour is broke, Unions are not providing the funds they once did. The corruption in Unions over the last few years has decimated election war funds. If labour is reduce to 30-35 seats, this will massively cut taxpayer funds to the party. This gives the Liberals a massive advantage.

If I was a Labour strategist, I would not give up the Carbon tax, force Abbott to a double dissolution. Let him get the power in the senate then watch the Libs over use or abuse democratically given total power. It may give them a good crack at the 3rd election to get back in. On the other hand Abbott might be like Howard and be one of our better Prime Minsters, which would mean Labour is down and dusted for at least a decade.

Only the Libs own mistakes can undo them such is the size of the wipe out coming Labours way. Gillard needs a Miracle, that might not even be enough. Cant wait to see the back of this Government, worst in my life time by a big margin.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Sober
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Mike
12 Jun 2013, 01:05 AM
This will depend on what happens with the Carbon Tax. The Coalition has drawn up detailed plans on the sequence of events it needs to do to have a double dissolution election. The Coalition will not bring in to many tough policies until this is sorted because should it win the senate seats required which is a given in the current climate, Abbott would have total power to do as he please for about 6 years, providing he won the follow on election.

The way it is looking Labour could be out for 9-12 years the size loss they look like taking. It is not just seats, but on the money side of it Labour is broke, Unions are not providing the funds they once did. The corruption in Unions over the last few years has decimated election war funds. If labour is reduce to 30-35 seats, this will massively cut taxpayer funds to the party. This gives the Liberals a massive advantage.

If I was a Labour strategist, I would not give up the Carbon tax, force Abbott to a double dissolution. Let him get the power in the senate then watch the Libs over use or abuse democratically given total power. It may give them a good crack at the 3rd election to get back in. On the other hand Abbott might be like Howard and be one of our better Prime Minsters, which would mean Labour is down and dusted for at least a decade.

Only the Libs own mistakes can undo them such is the size of the wipe out coming Labours way. Gillard needs a Miracle, that might not even be enough. Cant wait to see the back of this Government, worst in my life time by a big margin.
I understand your premise. But consider the timing considerations in a potential double dissolution election.

The Coalition has to have a short, sharp case to call a second election--an issue that they can plausibly claim that they ran on during the Sept 14 election campaign, but were thwarted by the Senate in terms of delivery. The Libs can maybe start to insert some additional themes during the double dissolution campaign, but large departures from previous form will lose the audience.
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skamy
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Massive
12 Jun 2013, 12:30 AM
the GFC has far from run its course....

Speak to people you may know in US, UK, Europe or even Asia.. Most people stationed in Asia are content but still miss the old days, while many people I know from US and Europe have quite depressing tales to tell...

I've met ( and in some cases interviewed ) more than one older fella who has moved to Asia just to secure employment to keep up their child payments so they don't lose all access to their children... it's not pretty.. they have zero desire to be this far from their children and i know a couple who were constantly checking wanted ads for back in their home country...

This is in addition to countless number of youth applicants... 5-10 years ago we never had this much interest for positions when we were paying almost double, with better conditions.. just a sign of the times...

sorry to run off on tangent... but i think blind optimism about what is going on outside of Australia is highly misleading and just as damaging as those scaremongering about a crash.





I do not have blind optimism but I do know that the economy tends to run in cycles and I travel to the UK a couple of times a year so I do know the situation there particularly for the North and particularly for construction work. The UK is coming out of the worst but like the rest of Europe it has problems with entrenched unemployment and youth unemployment in particular. The GFC hit in 2007, and its effects are now receding in 2013. As Peter pointed out due to lower interest rates and some of the early measures taken by Brown the crisis did not hit as badly as the crisis in late 1990, when houses literally halved in value overnight and every day saw reports of suicides and that crisis was also receding within 6-7 years.
Anyway we are getting way off topic.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/17562937/housing-up-fears-for-jobs/

Nothing to see here eh Skamy?

What a silly doomer that Shane Wright is.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Mike
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http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth continues to break new highs day after day. Very strong price growth, surprising for this time of year, normally we see the market slow down but no signs of that at present, the opposite is happening.

On a positive note most cities increased.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Simon
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Mike
13 Jun 2013, 11:57 AM
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth continues to break new highs day after day. Very strong price growth, surprising for this time of year, normally we see the market slow down but no signs of that at present, the opposite is happening.

On a positive note most cities increased.
All the cities turning back up now, lends weight to the theories from some bulls about the index lagging by a few mths
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Mike
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The other puzzle was solved today. Why is WA property so strong, well with an unemployment rate of 4.9% and interest rates falling, why would you not buy might be the better question. Seems many have answered that question themselves as price growth and sales show.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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newjez
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Keep smoking the good stuff mike. Is that caravan warm enough in winter?

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/budget-mistake-worth-millions/story-fnhocxo3-1226664365948
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Blondie girl
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Mike
13 Jun 2013, 11:57 AM
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth continues to break new highs day after day. Very strong price growth, surprising for this time of year, normally we see the market slow down but no signs of that at present, the opposite is happening.

On a positive note most cities increased.
Mike

Things have flattened out now...
I do like SQM research & Abs data..
I'm happy I've stuck with inner city properties coz I'm not going to have issues with getting good tenants..
The suburbs I'm in has performed exceedingly well in its price growth rates .

I'm very happy :)
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Mike
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Blondie girl
16 Jun 2013, 02:12 PM
Mike

Things have flattened out now...
I do like SQM research & Abs data..
I'm happy I've stuck with inner city properties coz I'm not going to have issues with getting good tenants..
The suburbs I'm in has performed exceedingly well in its price growth rates .

I'm very happy :)
I would agree for properties priced over $700 to $800k in some inner suburbs, price ranges under this are selling strongly almost everywhere. Even some inner city suburbs are doing very well.

I have noticed a very slight increase in listings for sale in areas I have checked out in the past week.

Keeping a close eye on sales, so far no noticeable slow down.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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