I very much doubt you will be correct with a claim of 30%, nothing so far indicates anything close to that figure. All data to date suggests a figure close to the above figure for the 1st half of 2013.
Experts agree that Perths has an undersupply of housing of between 20-30,000 houses which is why we see rising prices. Simply not enough land and new properties to meet demand. We need to increase construction to 30,000 per year or more and sustain it for 4-5 years to bring supply up to levels where prices will not rise so quickly. I very much doubt this will happen.
I don't claim to be an expert, but panning around realestate.com.au's new map function is telling me that these numbers are either made up or based on figures that have no basis in reality. There may be an undersupply, but not the extent your experts would agree.
I'm imagining RE agents screaming at re.com.au, for showing people how many properties are on the market in any given area.
The undersupply may actually be, "There are not enough homes that are affordable for new entrants, so they have given up and are renting"or "we've been told there is a shortage, so there must be and I will get a mortgage at any costs to get into the market" than a failure to build enough new homes.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
I don't claim to be an expert, but panning around realestate.com.au's new map function is telling me that these numbers are either made up or based on figures that have no basis in reality. There may be an undersupply, but not the extent your experts would agree.
I'm imagining RE agents screaming at re.com.au, for showing people how many properties are on the market in any given area.
The undersupply may actually be, "There are not enough homes that are affordable for new entrants, so they have given up and are renting"or "we've been told there is a shortage, so there must be and I will get a mortgage at any costs to get into the market" than a failure to build enough new homes.
Seriously, pan and zoom around, the tighter you go, the more pop up.
That is a pretty simplistic tool as many of the properties are under offer or under contract.
There are significantly less properties on the market in the under 800K range in desirable locations that is undisputable. Land on the good new estates sells very quickly. There are still many places and brackets that are priced well below peak eg North of Burns beach, but even these grew by 8% last year. If you want a bargain now in Perth you need at least $1.5m to spend.
The first home buyer market is crazy here.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
I agree, it is a pretty simplistic tool. I'm aware that some of the properties are not on the market and the site may be a little like a job board, with plenty of fake ads to collect information from users.
I still think 20-30k undersupply is a bit much though.
Considering that the 83k migrant population, which doesn't have any data for composition, (or rather, none that I could find) could be halved (or there about) to take couples into account (unless a single person can afford to buy) and then dropped a bit to take children into consideration, then there are temporary workers, who have never had intention of buying in Western Australia.
This number is for the entire state, no just perth, though that is where the majority of the population resides, it could be shaved a bit more to account for regional purchases.
You would end up with between 20-30k home buying units (families and permanent residents)
Western Australia has been building approximately 21k homes each year since 2010, when population growth figures were less than currently reported, about 50k if memory serves.
Seems to me that the undersupply argument is trotted out to convince new buyers that there is insufficient stock on hand, which would make a first home buyer market seem crazy.
It seems to have worked.
All of this is just napkin maths, I admit. A bit of data pulled from the ABS here or there. I may be wrong, again I'm no expert on these matters.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Indeed there is risk out there. There always is. The top sign that you are a chump is that you honestly believe you have found something that offers above-market return with below-market risk.
For the record, the next 4 signs that you are a chump are:
2) You think your financial future can be secured by finding a money manager or a guru who has some kind of crystal ball. Nobody knows what is going to happen. There are just more and less charismatic pundits and charisma has no financial value.
3) You can't see that the financial industry gets rich at the expense of investors, not the other way around. (Where else are they going to get their profits from?)
4) You think you can outperform by going with someone who has a record of good performance in investment/predictions. Today's rooster is tomorrow's feather duster.
5) Thinking that "getting the highest rate of return possible" is a legitimate financial goal. Legitimate goals are measurable and have a timeframe.
Very use words.. I agreeWell, it seems some arse puckering exists ...., bear nutters..
Well those FHB are not silly theyre actively been buying , if I was to start out I wouldn't go for the outer suburbs, yeah each to their own....
I would be seriously checking out suburbs near the new Fiona Stanley Hospital , can you imagine that freeway it's chockers enough already ??
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
What I'm hearing from down on the ground in Perth is the established suburbs have topped out !!
That is not what I am seeing in my personal experience or from others.
In the last two days I have had 2 valuations done on two properties. One a house which was last valued in August 2012 at $669,000. The new valuation is $820,000. A block of land I bought in early 2012 cost us $510,000 it was valued at $625,000 as of yesterday.
It was interesting to see the strong sales data for the areas in the comparison report the valuations used, some strong sales.
I had a chat to the values to get their opinion on the present market. They said sales had slowed a little but prices are still rising due to low supply of quality homes in good locations.
Sales are also picking up again over the last 3 weeks after a small winter slowdown, I guess some buyers trying to beat the spring rush.
The market has not peaked you will realise this by the end of this year and early 2014.
That is not what I am seeing in my personal experience or from others.
In the last two days I have had 2 valuations done on two properties. One a house which was last valued in August 2012 at $669,000. The new valuation is $820,000. A block of land I bought in early 2012 cost us $510,000 it was valued at $625,000 as of yesterday.
It was interesting to see the strong sales data for the areas in the comparison report the valuations used, some strong sales.
I had a chat to the values to get their opinion on the present market. They said sales had slowed a little but prices are still rising due to low supply of quality homes in good locations.
Sales are also picking up again over the last 3 weeks after a small winter slowdown, I guess some buyers trying to beat the spring rush.
The market has not peaked you will realise this by the end of this year and early 2014.
fuck me Mike what type of crap is that your valuations are from a year ago Aug12 to aug13 what does that show?.
I agree they have moved up from August last year, Indeed!!! never said they didn't.
What I am hearing from multiple sources and they are people I know well is that established property has peaked and only another cut or 2 will see this change.
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