Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,397 Views)
skamy
Member Avatar


Bardon
24 Aug 2013, 02:01 PM
West Perth was the first place I witnessed a street auction of a property and the showcase of a fierce bidding war and the auctioneer extracting way above the reserved price for the lucky seller. I liked that a lot, fond memories and all that.

I just came across a few properties and for something that close to kings park and the city it looked pretty cheap. I am fairly new to Perth, so I didn't knowif there was any big downsides.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
doubleview
Member Avatar


Mike
24 Aug 2013, 07:47 PM
A dose of reality for you, I know you hate reality and facts.

http://www.udiawa.com.au/Uploads/File/Press_Releases/new-dwelling-finance-at-19-year-highs-120713.pdf




Wow 19 year highs for finance, ouch. Highest levels since 1994 even higher then the Rudd inspired stimulus of 2009/10 and the Boom years of 2004-06 when prices increased 80%. What is going to follow which such high levels of finance in the pipe line.

FHG paid out up to June 2013 are up 33% of 2012 levels. Listing for properties are now at the lowest levels since 2006. House prices up to June 30th 2013 are up 11% YoY as per the ABS.

http://www.udiawa.com.au/go/press-releases

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

Do you want me to go on because I can. Hard to fight facts isn't it or rather the truth. When people like yourself blatently come onto forums like this and lie to all of us, spew your filth all over the place it makes our job so much easier and rewarding to discredited you utterly, which is really not much of challenge at all.
urban development institute waht the fuck is that!!

Is their a bigger vested interest out there 0/10 FAIL!!!
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


doubleview
24 Aug 2013, 10:47 PM
urban development institute waht the fuck is that!!

Is their a bigger vested interest out there 0/10 FAIL!!!
They area bunch of developers for sure. However, you are their best mate doubleview. You have sucked up all their propaganda to get cheap development land and taken it on as your very own cause celebre.

Quote:
 

We are now almost three weeks in to the Federal Election Campaign, and the major parties have yet to detail how they intend to address the ongoing housing affordability crisis, which is putting millions of Australian households in financial peril. The Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) is urging the next Federal Government to work with State Governments to strategically identify and roll out new land in our major capital and provincial cities, which will help increase the supply of housing and improve affordability.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


doubleview
24 Aug 2013, 10:47 PM
urban development institute waht the fuck is that!!

Is their a bigger vested interest out there 0/10 FAIL!!!
The data comes from the ABS. Epic fail.

Try to get some knowledge on the topic, you are very good at making yourself look like a goose.

Quote:
 
Figures published last week by the Bureau of Statistics


Quote:
 
according to figures published by the Bureau of Statistics today


You will find the same data at the ABS if you bother to look outside of you're own lunchbox.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Bardon
Default APF Avatar


skamy
24 Aug 2013, 10:27 PM
I just came across a few properties and for something that close to kings park and the city it looked pretty cheap. I am fairly new to Perth, so I didn't knowif there was any big downsides.

I don't think there would be any downsides except the steep downhill run into the terrace.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
ozz
Default APF Avatar


Mike
24 Aug 2013, 09:33 PM
That is possible as I do agree with you on that WA does not need low rates, I said that prior to the RBA cutting rates at the end of 2011.

Perhaps a slower economy, higher unemployment if it rises a considerable amount will help keep the market from booming.

If prices go higher then the high end of my prediction 25% over the next 2 years then I would become concerned. I would most likely sell a few properties, pocket the large profits and wait for the market to cool just like some of you for my chance to snap up some bargains.

Perth's prices can easily rise another 10-15% on top of the 12.7% we have had without running into affordability issues due to our high average wages. Beyond this and I would agree that prices have overshot but property markets tend to do that, fall back a little and stabilise at a much higher price.

The key development to watch for over the next 12 months is land. Developers are trying hard to push out more land and have a lot of new releases being pushed forward for the 1st half of 2014. If the developers cannot keep pace with demand then we could have a really tight supply issue which will drive prices higher. People who don't want to pay higher and higher prices for new builds despite the increased FHBG will turn back to the established market creating an even tighter supply problem.

The issue is supply of land and houses. I was reading today that over the past 12 months to June 2013 Perth's population increased by 83,000 at current occupants per dwelling this requires 32,000 new houses, yet we only built 24,000 a shortage of 8,000 houses in just one year.

To ease house prices the Government needs to do a lot more to bring more land and encourage more new properties to be built. This will over a few years ease price pressures and bring stability to the market. At this stage it looks like state and federal governments will do little to ease this problem. Why? Higher prices serve the interest of both state and federal governments in the form of Stamp duty and CGT.
Mike, Perth's population increase has averaged around the 45,000 mark for many years. I acknowledge the big increase in 2013, but this will revert to the mean or less for 2014 and definitely in 2015 as the big employer section reduces workforce big time. Then this 8,000 p.a. shortfall will be an 8,000 p.a. surplus.

Prices in three years time will be less than today. Can you see this happening in any way shape or form?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


ozz
25 Aug 2013, 11:25 PM
Mike, Perth's population increase has averaged around the 45,000 mark for many years. I acknowledge the big increase in 2013, but this will revert to the mean or less for 2014 and definitely in 2015 as the big employer section reduces workforce big time. Then this 8,000 p.a. shortfall will be an 8,000 p.a. surplus.

Prices in three years time will be less than today. Can you see this happening in any way shape or form?
State government forecasts are around 50, 000. Down from 75, 000 this financial year.

The workforce has added only 6, 000 jobs in the past 12 months.

All eyes to employment numbers.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Bardon
25 Aug 2013, 10:19 AM

I don't think there would be any downsides except the steep downhill run into the terrace.
:D
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Of coarse 30% fewer people arriving will have no impact on housing construction. :bl:
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


ozz
25 Aug 2013, 11:25 PM
Mike, Perth's population increase has averaged around the 45,000 mark for many years. I acknowledge the big increase in 2013, but this will revert to the mean or less for 2014 and definitely in 2015 as the big employer section reduces workforce big time. Then this 8,000 p.a. shortfall will be an 8,000 p.a. surplus.

Prices in three years time will be less than today. Can you see this happening in any way shape or form?
Perths population growth has averaged 2.62% over the past 63 years from 1950. Present population growth is 3.5% which gives us 83,000 as of December 2012.

If you use the average rate of growth based on the present population we will add 64,000 people this year.

I can see population growth falling to 65,000-75,000 a year.

Experts agree that Perths has an undersupply of housing of between 20-30,000 houses which is why we see rising prices. Simply not enough land and new properties to meet demand. We need to increase construction to 30,000 per year or more and sustain it for 4-5 years to bring supply up to levels where prices will not rise so quickly. I very much doubt this will happen.

I can see prices slowing or stagnating in 2 years time, 2nd half of 2015.

Prices will be 10 to 15% higher then today.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy