11% YoY growth, drought is it maybe for bears that is for sure. The ABS proved me correct on another prediction of mine, that Perth property prices have been increasing at an increasing rate. Ouch, I was right on the money again.
Now Perth has had 11.1% YoY growth from 30th of June 2012 to 30th of June 2013, lets look at growth since the bottom of the market.
So since the bottom of the market in September 2011 the Perth market has bounced back by 12.7% as per ABS data. Even macrobussiness now has the Perth market 4.2% above its previous high in nominal terms.
Another point I got correct a few months ago, go check my posts on this forum. I stated that across the market I thought prices had increased by about 13%. My own figures and observations is what lead me to this figure, I was pretty damm close according to the ABS.
RPdata which now looks bearish compared to ABS data shows Perth up almost another 4% since 30th of June 2013. I do not think the growth is that strong but I could be wrong, it is more likely the RPdata is playing catchup with the ABS which has a lot more resources to collate data. My prediction for September quarter would be a similar result as the June quarter in the 3-4% range. The December 2013 and March 2014 is when the potential for much higher growth is really go to kick in.
Mike - I read your comments on Perth now when prices were falling. Perthite did too. We used to laugh about them often. It was quite sad really. But I was waiting for you to tell us all how you make money in a downturn. Tell us some more about that please.
I am glad you find you're failures funny, many do not.
We see you for what you are. You are a desperate person who wants to see prices fall a lot so you can buy back into the Perth market for you're own gain. Everyone else has to suffer and you even laughed and gloated at people losing jobs. This shows the type of person you really are.
You have been constantly wrong, you can try and change the topic but we can all see you're many failed predictions. Everyone now knows that what ever you say is worthless, utterly useless.
Please tell us all why you have been so very wrong for such along time, how could one person make so many mistakes. The forum deserves an answer, sure you are not a macro business troll trying to drum up you're business model. You sound like a sales man trying to sell faulty products to unsuspecting buyers, are you a MB troll to steal money from members here at APF as that what it looks like.
West Perth was the first place I witnessed a street auction of a property and the showcase of a fierce bidding war and the auctioneer extracting way above the reserved price for the lucky seller. I liked that a lot, fond memories and all that.
We see you for what you are. You are a desperate person who wants to see prices fall a lot so you can buy back into the Perth market for you're own gain
No No!! Mike we see you for what you are!!
Mike = An extreme example of desperation,panic, greed and leveraged to the eyeballs vested interest all rolled into one.
Furthermore what the fuck is it with Perth Bulls thinking all the Bears are Shooter Macgavin types trying to buy Happy Gilmore's grand ma's house on the cheap.
Whats up with that?
newjez
24 Aug 2013, 01:29 AM
Mike - I read your comments on Perth now when prices were falling. Perthite did too. We used to laugh about them often. It was quite sad really. But I was waiting for you to tell us all how you make money in a downturn. Tell us some more about that please.
Mike you have some explaining to do.
mango66
24 Aug 2013, 01:28 PM
Ha ha . Do you think people actually take advice from this site . Your fucking delusional. You got a massive following on your blogspot have you?
Ha yep The delusion of theirs has no bounds.
Mike
24 Aug 2013, 10:53 AM
sure you are not a macro business troll trying to drum up you're business model. You sound like a sales man trying to sell faulty products to unsuspecting buyers, are you a MB troll to steal money from members here at APF as that what it looks like.
You paranoid fucktard.
If anyone we should bu SUS of it is u, your rants come across as a sponsored Aussie property status quo gate keeper!!
Also why all the hate for macro business from the bulls? threatens your blueprint narrow point of view perhaps.
Furthermore what the fuck is it with Perth Bulls thinking all the Bears are Shooter Macgavin types trying to buy Happy Gilmore's grand ma's house on the cheap.
Western Australian home loan approvals rose in May, with loans for new dwellings reaching 19 year highs. The number of loans for homes purchased by owner-occupiers rose 4.0 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms compared to April, according to figures published by the Bureau of Statistics today.1
Loans for the purchase and construction of new dwellings increased 4.7 per cent. Urban Development Institute of Australia (WA Division) CEO Debra Goostrey said that more than 19,000 loans for new dwellings for owner-occupation were written over the past twelve months, which is 30 per cent more than levels a year ago.
“These are the highest levels since 1994, surpassing the 09/10 peak driven by the Commonwealth Government’s temporary construction stimulus and the mid-2006 peak,” said Ms Goostrey.
“We’ve seen the market balance change dramatically over the past 18 months, encouraged by a strong lift in home-ownership.” “Developers have reported strong sales in 2013 and releases brought forward are being snapped up quickly by purchasers eager to take advantage of near-record low mortgage rates.”
Ms Goostrey said that strong interest in new dwellings has been driven in part by record migration and a structural undersupply of dwellings. “Western Australia had an undersupply of 38,000 dwellings in 2011 according to the National Housing Supply Council and since then the state’s population has been increasing at over 1,500 people each week,” said Ms Goostrey.
Figures published last week by the Bureau of Statistics showed that dwelling approvals increased for the tenth consecutive month in May, reaching 24,000 dwellings over the twelve month period.
Ms Goostrey said that UDIA is working with a whole range of government agencies to prevent a return to severe land shortages that were characterised by a destabilising overshooting of land prices in the middle of last decade.
Wow 19 year highs for finance, ouch. Highest levels since 1994 even higher then the Rudd inspired stimulus of 2009/10 and the Boom years of 2004-06 when prices increased 80%. What is going to follow which such high levels of finance in the pipe line.
FHG paid out up to June 2013 are up 33% of 2012 levels. Listing for properties are now at the lowest levels since 2006. House prices up to June 30th 2013 are up 11% YoY as per the ABS.
Do you want me to go on because I can. Hard to fight facts isn't it or rather the truth. When people like yourself blatently come onto forums like this and lie to all of us, spew your filth all over the place it makes our job so much easier and rewarding to discredited you utterly, which is really not much of challenge at all.
Wow 19 year highs for finance, ouch. Highest levels since 1994 even higher then the Rudd inspired stimulus of 2009/10 and the Boom years of 2004-06 when prices increased 80%. What is going to follow which such high levels of finance in the pipe line.
FHG paid out up to June 2013 are up 33% of 2012 levels. Listing for properties are now at the lowest levels since 2006. House prices up to June 30th 2013 are up 11% YoY as per the ABS.
Do you want me to go on because I can. Hard to fight facts isn't it or rather the truth. When people like yourself blatently come onto forums like this and lie to all of us, spew your filth all over the place it makes our job so much easier and rewarding to discredited you utterly, which is really not much of challenge at all.
Mike, seriously, that kind of data should be giving any sensible person the sweats.
The WA market is overheating.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Mike, seriously, that kind of data should be giving any sensible person the sweats.
The WA market is overheating.
That is possible as I do agree with you on that WA does not need low rates, I said that prior to the RBA cutting rates at the end of 2011.
Perhaps a slower economy, higher unemployment if it rises a considerable amount will help keep the market from booming.
If prices go higher then the high end of my prediction 25% over the next 2 years then I would become concerned. I would most likely sell a few properties, pocket the large profits and wait for the market to cool just like some of you for my chance to snap up some bargains.
Perth's prices can easily rise another 10-15% on top of the 12.7% we have had without running into affordability issues due to our high average wages. Beyond this and I would agree that prices have overshot but property markets tend to do that, fall back a little and stabilise at a much higher price.
The key development to watch for over the next 12 months is land. Developers are trying hard to push out more land and have a lot of new releases being pushed forward for the 1st half of 2014. If the developers cannot keep pace with demand then we could have a really tight supply issue which will drive prices higher. People who don't want to pay higher and higher prices for new builds despite the increased FHBG will turn back to the established market creating an even tighter supply problem.
The issue is supply of land and houses. I was reading today that over the past 12 months to June 2013 Perth's population increased by 83,000 at current occupants per dwelling this requires 32,000 new houses, yet we only built 24,000 a shortage of 8,000 houses in just one year.
To ease house prices the Government needs to do a lot more to bring more land and encourage more new properties to be built. This will over a few years ease price pressures and bring stability to the market. At this stage it looks like state and federal governments will do little to ease this problem. Why? Higher prices serve the interest of both state and federal governments in the form of Stamp duty and CGT.
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