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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,399 Views)
skamy
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newjez
23 Aug 2013, 12:45 PM
Are you fucking mystic meg or something Mike? What's with all this - 'ha another prediction' stuff? I've made clear what I think the market will do in the next 12 months in Perth. Flat - probably with a bit of froth blown off.

Anything else I say is banter - usually aimed at winding you up. Seems to be working. You seem very stressed. Not Steinburg stressed, but stressed all the same. Worried stressed. I have the feeling you've gambled on getting into the big time. A bit over stretched maybe? Not happy about the market turning? My advice - don't panic - but stop lying to yourself.
You are the one who lowered the tone with you're rudeness and I don't think you are usually like this, so it does look as if something is eating you.

Veritas did not own his error, btw, he never does. If he had, I would not have continued to stand up for truthful and accurate understanding of the abs statistics. His whole point was silly, first he did not understand the household ownership statistics then he insists it should tell him about occupancy and then he just completely refuses to acknowledge the existence of the information on occupancy in other places in the household stats. People read this forum and some people may make costly decisions on what they read. Accuracy is important to me, I will correct mistakes and misunderstandings if I see them. Veritas will get no free ride, particularly as he is very rude and bad mannered most of the time.

Your bleeding heart sob story about poor Veritas cuts no ice with me. Veritas made his bed and he had to lay in it. We did humiliate him, but seriously he could easily have avoided it with a simple statement that he was wrong.


Now if you could get back to the topic at hand and provide some reasons why you think Perth prices will drop below the 2007 level prices they are finally achieving after this extended GFC downturn.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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Mike
23 Aug 2013, 11:42 PM
I am only a few % away from my predictions being 100% correct, you on the other hand have been utterly wrong at every turn.

Why on earth you would give out advice when you live in the UK is beyond me. You can never know what is really happening which is clearly demonstrated in dozens of wrong predictions by yourself.

You have been utterly discredited.
Mike - as far as I can remember you have always been bullish. Even when you were a lonely old soul posting comments on Perth now - you were bullish. For years you have been bullish. I doubt if you can point to a post of yours where you have said that you expect house prices to level out or fall in the immediate future. (I don't count your long range forecasts into 2016 or whatever)

A broken clock is right twice a day. And you are a very broken clock. Springs hanging out and everything.

When prices have fallen, or stayed flat, or barely kept up with inflation - you have been wrong. In fact - recent history is the only time I can remember you ever being right. You're wrong. Always wrong. You have to be wrong, because you have been oh so bullish, and house prices have barely kept up with inflation.

Which means me and the bears have been right, and you have been wrong.
skamy
24 Aug 2013, 12:30 AM
You are the one who lowered the tone with you're rudeness and I don't think you are usually like this, so it does look as if something is eating you.

Veritas did not own his error, btw, he never does. If he had, I would not have continued to stand up for truthful and accurate understanding of the abs statistics. His whole point was silly, first he did not understand the household ownership statistics then he insists it should tell him about occupancy and then he just completely refuses to acknowledge the existence of the information on occupancy in other places in the household stats. People read this forum and some people may make costly decisions on what they read. Accuracy is important to me, I will correct mistakes and misunderstandings if I see them. Veritas will get no free ride, particularly as he is very rude and bad mannered most of the time.

Your bleeding heart sob story about poor Veritas cuts no ice with me. Veritas made his bed and he had to lay in it. We did humiliate him, but seriously he could easily have avoided it with a simple statement that he was wrong.


Now if you could get back to the topic at hand and provide some reasons why you think Perth prices will drop below the 2007 level prices they are finally achieving after this extended GFC downturn.
I bet you'd look great in a wonder woman costume! ..and I think we've done that to death skamy - over and over again. If you won't listen what do I care?
Edited by newjez, 24 Aug 2013, 12:39 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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newjez
23 Aug 2013, 01:33 PM
That's a crap analogy Trojan - please try harder.

A better one would be - we have 40,000 people between the ages of 35 and 45.

This week 10,000 were drinking beer, 10,000 were drinking wine.

Therefore I conclude that 50% of people between the ages of 35 and 45 drink beer.

That is effectively what the stat said. And it is true, 50% of the drinkers between 35 and 45 do drink beer. But only 25% of the 35 - 45 population drink beer.

You need to have an appreciation of what the stats are telling us.
See you just don't understand it either. This is the damage that an arrogant bullshitter like Veritas does.

Everyone gets counted, we just calculate some statistics on house ownership and some on occupancy. You cannot force the occupancy ones to be house ones. Veritas has no background knowledge of why and how these statistics are calculated and used. But be assured there are representatives from social services, medical planners and business etc. They also collaborate internationally so that everyone can do their jobs with the data.

Veritas lives in this fantasy world where he thinks everyone is trying to trick him into buying a house just before a huge price drop, and sometimes his claims about official statistics are just nonsence.





Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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skamy
24 Aug 2013, 12:39 AM
See you just don't understand it either. This is the damage that an arrogant bullshitter like Veritas does.

Everyone gets counted, we just calculate some statistics on house ownership and some on occupancy. You cannot force the occupancy ones to be house ones. Veritas has no background knowledge of why and how these statistics are calculated and used. But be assured there are representatives from social services, medical planners and business etc. They also collaborate internationally so that everyone can do their jobs with the data.

Veritas lives in this fantasy world where he thinks everyone is trying to trick him into buying a house just before a huge price drop, and sometimes his claims about official statistics are just nonsence.




No I do. I own a home in Sydney, and I get a job in Perth, so I lease my Sydney house to a guy in Perth and rent his house, if we are the only two people in the survey, then the owner occupier stat is zero, because we are both renting.

If there are two houses, one is rented, one is owner occupied. If I have ten people living in the rented house, the stat is 50%. If the ten people in the rented house move to the owner occupier house, the stat is still 50%.

Owner Occupier rates for Bulgaria are 97%, Italy 82%, Finland 62%, Turkey 60%, Germany 42%. What does this tell us?

I get it - I just don't know what you'd use it for.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Mike
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newjez
24 Aug 2013, 12:36 AM
Mike - as far as I can remember you have always been bullish. Even when you were a lonely old soul posting comments on Perth now - you were bullish. For years you have been bullish. I doubt if you can point to a post of yours where you have said that you expect house prices to level out or fall in the immediate future. (I don't count your long range forecasts into 2016 or whatever)

A broken clock is right twice a day. And you are a very broken clock. Springs hanging out and everything.

When prices have fallen, or stayed flat, or barely kept up with inflation - you have been wrong. In fact - recent history is the only time I can remember you ever being right. You're wrong. Always wrong. You have to be wrong, because you have been oh so bullish, and house prices have barely kept up with inflation.

Which means me and the bears have been right, and you have been wrong.

I bet you'd look great in a wonder woman costume! ..and I think we've done that to death skamy - over and over again. If you won't listen what do I care?
The reason you have not seen me be a bear on this forum is because since I have been a member prices have been rising and will continue to do so.

We shall see over the next 1-2 years how my predictions go, so far I am doing very well while you on the other hand are not even in the game.

I have been investing, building and doing developments for along time now, I have mostly bought during bear markets. It serves my own self interest to know when a bear market is coming. For the foreseeable future no bear market is on the horizon, in 2 years time perhaps.

The reason you are constantly wrong is you do not have any first hand evidence of the market and are reliant on outdate data which is always months old. The same with Veritas when questions regarding where he wanted to buy he had little knowledge of the suburbs or prices. It is very clear to me both of you only look at internet sites or data and lack any real world experience or knowledge.

You are only a pretender, trying to tell some one who lives and breathes the market on a daily basis with my own eyes and ears what is happening. This is why you have always been wrong, I have a huge advantage as I see what is happening in the market many months prior to it appearing in any data or media article. I told you earlier in the year sales were strong, the market was moving, you did not believe me and look what happened. I don't lie never have and never will, why would I. A lower market means its time for me to jump in and try and snap my own bargains like you and some others might do. A rising market is when I look to sell or get properties revalue to access equity ready for when prices do decline or stagnate.

You cannot compete with me, you are not even in the same league. If you were living in Perth and had an spent a lot of time in the market you would see what is unfolding.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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skamy
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newjez
24 Aug 2013, 12:59 AM
No I do. I own a home in Sydney, and I get a job in Perth, so I lease my Sydney house to a guy in Perth and rent his house, if we are the only two people in the survey, then the owner occupier stat is zero, because we are both renting.

If there are two houses, one is rented, one is owner occupied. If I have ten people living in the rented house, the stat is 50%. If the ten people in the rented house move to the owner occupier house, the stat is still 50%.

Owner Occupier rates for Bulgaria are 97%, Italy 82%, Finland 62%, Turkey 60%, Germany 42%. What does this tell us?

I get it - I just don't know what you'd use it for.


If this situation occurred the ABS would measure it in several ways, it would also have the ages of all the renters, it would have the knowledge of their IPs, their values, their mortgage size and repayments, it would also have their income and the households income etc etc from the household survey data.

This situation does not happen tho' does it? Why is it relevent anyway? I assumed you misunderstood as you are not acknowledging that this information is readily available from the ABS. You were giving an example where many people were not counted at all and that is just not so.

But I suspect you are a bit like Veritas on this type of thing as you seem to find it very difficult just to own a mistake.


This is off topic as you have mentioned, so I am done with discussing this matter with you. Either you get it, or you don't, why should I bother trying to explain it further.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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skamy
24 Aug 2013, 01:19 AM


If this situation occurred the ABS would measure it in several ways, it would also have the ages of all the renters, it would have the knowledge of their IPs, their values, their mortgage size and repayments, it would also have their income and the households income etc etc from the household survey data.

This situation does not happen tho' does it? Why is it relevent anyway? I assumed you misunderstood as you are not acknowledging that this information is readily available from the ABS. You were giving an example where many people were not counted at all and that is just not so.

But I suspect you are a bit like Veritas on this type of thing as you seem to find it very difficult just to own a mistake.


This is off topic as you have mentioned, so I am done with discussing this matter with you. Either you get it, or you don't, why should I bother trying to explain it further.
I said at the start that I didn't know how it was calculated. I had never bothered to find out. I don't mind learning new things skamy. That's why I'm here, also to have a little fun.

The situation I pointed out would happen more than you think in recent times. There are probably a lot of eastern staters who have rented out their houses to pursue higher wages in Perth.
Mike
24 Aug 2013, 01:17 AM
The reason you have not seen me be a bear on this forum is because since I have been a member prices have been rising and will continue to do so.

We shall see over the next 1-2 years how my predictions go, so far I am doing very well while you on the other hand are not even in the game.

I have been investing, building and doing developments for along time now, I have mostly bought during bear markets. It serves my own self interest to know when a bear market is coming. For the foreseeable future no bear market is on the horizon, in 2 years time perhaps.

The reason you are constantly wrong is you do not have any first hand evidence of the market and are reliant on outdate data which is always months old. The same with Veritas when questions regarding where he wanted to buy he had little knowledge of the suburbs or prices. It is very clear to me both of you only look at internet sites or data and lack any real world experience or knowledge.

You are only a pretender, trying to tell some one who lives and breathes the market on a daily basis with my own eyes and ears what is happening. This is why you have always been wrong, I have a huge advantage as I see what is happening in the market many months prior to it appearing in any data or media article. I told you earlier in the year sales were strong, the market was moving, you did not believe me and look what happened. I don't lie never have and never will, why would I. A lower market means its time for me to jump in and try and snap my own bargains like you and some others might do. A rising market is when I look to sell or get properties revalue to access equity ready for when prices do decline or stagnate.

You cannot compete with me, you are not even in the same league. If you were living in Perth and had an spent a lot of time in the market you would see what is unfolding.

Mike - I read your comments on Perth now when prices were falling. Perthite did too. We used to laugh about them often. It was quite sad really. But I was waiting for you to tell us all how you make money in a downturn. Tell us some more about that please.
Edited by newjez, 24 Aug 2013, 01:32 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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newjez
24 Aug 2013, 01:29 AM
The situation I pointed out would happen more than you think in recent times. There are probably a lot of eastern staters who have rented out their houses to pursue higher wages in Perth.
Point taken, and there are young people with an investment property out west while they rent in the city.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

newjez
24 Aug 2013, 12:59 AM
I own a home in Sydney, and I get a job in Perth, so I lease my Sydney house to a guy in Perth and rent his house, if we are the only two people in the survey, then the owner occupier stat is zero, because we are both renting.
The stats will show two rented households and no owner-occupied households. As they should.

Quote:
 
If there are two houses, one is rented, one is owner occupied. If I have ten people living in the rented house, the stat is 50%. If the ten people in the rented house move to the owner occupier house, the stat is still 50%.
The stats will show 50% of homes are rented and 50% of homes are owner occupied. As they should.

Quote:
 
I get it - I just don't know what you'd use it for.
You use it to determine what percentage of homes are rented vs owner occupied.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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doubleview
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Strindberg
23 Aug 2013, 05:57 PM
WHAT!

You are saying the housing market support since mid 2011 is "UNPRECEDENTED".

Where have you been?

2008/9 cash rate was cut 3.75% and FHB grants were doubled and trebled.

20011/13 cash rate was cut 2.25% and FHB grants were scrapped in some states.

Newjez didn't screw up because he failed to anticipate support action. He screwed up because he based his predictions on his own wishful thinking.

How I long for the GHPC days with challenging intelligent bears. Still find it hard to believe what you wrote above. Are you a bull out to make the bears look dumb?

PS - thanks for replying and quoting my post. It'll allow newjez to continue to pretend he has me on ignore.
Fuck me!! your like a wild animal protecting their young.

Just How many investment properties do you have ?
Pig Iron
23 Aug 2013, 06:02 PM
err, awesomely.

rio is up $8 and bhp is up 4 from where i bought in. both of them are up today
good
Mike
23 Aug 2013, 06:03 PM

If you do put you're predictions out here so we can see them and hold you accountable to them.

my thoughts/projections still stand here.

still stands
Edited by doubleview, 24 Aug 2013, 10:37 AM.
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