You've bet the farm haven't you Mike? Stressed much?
mel
23 Aug 2013, 07:05 PM
But that's the thing isn't it? Local response to the GFC was a bit of an eye opener and should have taught us all some lessons. If someone told me in 2007 there would be a rebate of almost $40,000 in victoria a couple of years later to build a home on cheap land with next to no stamp duty i would have told them they had rocks in their head. We are at a record low cash rate and there is talk of it going lower, despite some significant property markets getting a big kick up the arse? Something else worth considering is why the hasn't fed stopped QE? Could it be possible there's a 'new' way of doing things for the foreseeable?
long story short, I don't believe we are going to have a recession until we absolutely have to have one.
(fwiw this post isn't directed towards newjez in any way and it's not a dig at you or anyone else)
I'm not offended Mel.
I openly admit I don't know how things will pan out over the next few years on a global scale. Some writers like b_b say there's nothing to worry about. Some writers are predicting a stock market crash. Some are predicting a bond crash or an Asian liquidity/currency crisis - whatever that is. That could affect property - but I'm not about to sell my house, unless I see one I like better.
I have no idea what will pan out in the next few years. But obviously there is risk out there, so I've taken a defensive position for now. I've managed to avoid all the major stock market corrections over the last few years. Obviously being defensive means you miss some upside, but hey, you take a stance and stick by it.
By xmas - if nothing major has happened in the markets - I'll start to get back in. But I'm happy to sit and watch for now.
If you want advice on housing - don't listen to me - Mike's the expert on that.
I have no idea what will pan out in the next few years. But obviously there is risk out there, so I've taken a defensive position for now. I've managed to avoid all the major stock market corrections over the last few years. Obviously being defensive means you miss some upside, but hey, you take a stance and stick by it.
Indeed there is risk out there. There always is. The top sign that you are a chump is that you honestly believe you have found something that offers above-market return with below-market risk.
For the record, the next 4 signs that you are a chump are:
2) You think your financial future can be secured by finding a money manager or a guru who has some kind of crystal ball. Nobody knows what is going to happen. There are just more and less charismatic pundits and charisma has no financial value.
3) You can't see that the financial industry gets rich at the expense of investors, not the other way around. (Where else are they going to get their profits from?)
4) You think you can outperform by going with someone who has a record of good performance in investment/predictions. Today's rooster is tomorrow's feather duster.
5) Thinking that "getting the highest rate of return possible" is a legitimate financial goal. Legitimate goals are measurable and have a timeframe.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
You've bet the farm haven't you Mike? Stressed much?
Just showing everyone how incompetent you have been. At least people can now look back over the last 2 years and see dozens of false predictions by you.
The very least you could do is apologies to everyone for giving bad advice which may have cost many people alot of money.
To be perfectly honest you have been wrong on so many occasions over such a long time period it is obvious to all of us you don't know what you are talking about. You have been utterly discredited, you are shamed, you are a disgrace.
Don't make predictions as you don't have enough knowledge or experience to do so. Stick to your useless one line comments.
Just showing everyone how incompetent you have been. At least people can now look back over the last 2 years and see dozens of false predictions by you.
The very least you could do is apologies to everyone for giving bad advice which may have cost many people alot of money.
To be perfectly honest you have been wrong on so many occasions over such a long time period it is obvious to all of us you don't know what you are talking about. You have been utterly discredited, you are shamed, you are a disgrace.
Don't make predictions as you don't have enough knowledge or experience to do so. Stick to your useless one line comments.
I don't give advice Mike. I give opinion. I'm not qualified to give advice Mike. I doubt you are either. Anyone who takes advice from this board has batshit for brains. We're just a bunch of guys chewing the fat. If you think this is any more than that, then you have a serious problem.
...and anyway - for the record - my basic stance over the last few years (when did I start posting?) is that Perth property will do nothing, and low and behold, over that time, has it even managed to keep up with inflation? If it has - it won't be far ahead. What have you done Mike - you have put it forward as a fabulous opportunity to make money. Has it Mike? Has it really? Would you be much better off if you had kept the money in the bank? Would you Mike? and avoided all that risk? Has your advice really been up to scratch Mike? Do we really believe your prediction that Perth will be up 15% 25% WHATEVER%? Do we Mike? Do we really?
I don't give advice Mike. I give opinion. I'm not qualified to give advice Mike. I doubt you are either. Anyone who takes advice from this board has batshit for brains. We're just a bunch of guys chewing the fat. If you think this is any more than that, then you have a serious problem.
You did offer advice we have the quotes to prove it. If now people should not take what you say with any meaning it may be very late for some people.
Im not chewing the fat and im sure you don't either as you spend far to much time on "chewing the fat".
I'm on here because it's fun, and I learn things. Is this your job Mike?
Never said I was, but nice try to change the topic.
Just admit you got on many occasions.
You're epic fails go back along way, its ok to be wrong a few times but you have been proven wrong over a number of years. That is a hard record to beat.
Never said I was, but nice try to change the topic.
Just admit you got on many occasions.
You're epic fails go back along way, its ok to be wrong a few times but you have been proven wrong over a number of years. That is a hard record to beat.
...and anyway - for the record - my basic stance over the last few years (when did I start posting?) is that Perth property will do nothing, and low and behold, over that time, has it even managed to keep up with inflation? If it has - it won't be far ahead. What have you done Mike - you have put it forward as a fabulous opportunity to make money. Has it Mike? Has it really? Would you be much better off if you had kept the money in the bank? Would you Mike? and avoided all that risk? Has your advice really been up to scratch Mike? Do we really believe your prediction that Perth will be up 15% 25% WHATEVER%? Do we Mike? Do we really?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
...and anyway - for the record - my basic stance over the last few years (when did I start posting?) is that Perth property will do nothing, and low and behold, over that time, has it even managed to keep up with inflation? If it has - it won't be far ahead. What have you done Mike - you have put it forward as a fabulous opportunity to make money. Has it Mike? Has it really? Would you be much better off if you had kept the money in the bank? Would you Mike? and avoided all that risk? Has your advice really been up to scratch Mike? Do we really believe your prediction that Perth will be up 15% 25% WHATEVER%? Do we Mike? Do we really?
I am only a few % away from my predictions being 100% correct, you on the other hand have been utterly wrong at every turn.
Why on earth you would give out advice when you live in the UK is beyond me. You can never know what is really happening which is clearly demonstrated in dozens of wrong predictions by yourself.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy