You just predicted the future again ("Perth properties all time high, which probably won't be seen again for quite some time.")
I would have thought that you would have given up doing that by now. You have made many predictions. They all failed. It is very fair of Mike to place your present prediction in the context of your past predictions. I realise you are upset at your serial cock-ups being revealed but that's no reason to call Mike dirty names.
Just a small sample of your predictions (all of which were wrong):
You saw the correction up to Q3 2011 and wet your knickers imagining it was the beginning of your hoped for crash. You gave much abuse to BP. A gentleman would apologise.
Just like the bears on GHPC in 2008/9. It's fun to watch.
In just 2 years or so the scaffolding put under the housing market is unprecedented.
The only thing Newjez got wrong was that he underestimated the lengths the power to be will go to prop it up.
Additionally it must pointed out that At the time in 2011 when newjez made a couple of statements + 1 prediction the cash rate was %4.75.
Now August 2013 you can lock in 1 year fixed mortgage for %3.99 and the cash rate is approaching the %1.
The bears including Newjez are out in the car park sobering up whilst most of the bulls are still in the club and asking for intravenous drips.
You also made clear in 2012 on multiple occasions you thought the market would go down and it did not. Every time you noticed some declines in RPdata you jumped in and made bold statements. Every time you got it wrong.
You did the same back in April and May, you said you needed 3 months to prove the market was in decline. What happened, the market is up 11% to June 2013, 12.7% from the bottom of the market. Up to today the market is up another 4.28% as per you're now preferred choice of RP data. That is growth of 4.28% since 1st of July 2013 which is less then 8 weeks. As you bears like to use the present rate of growth in just the past 7 weeks on an annualised basis is 29% growth for the year if it was continued for 12 months.
So despite you're repeated claims of a declining market in 2012 and the 1st half of 2013, you were wrong by 12.7%. The market is now up as of today a further 4.28% this quarter, bringing total growth since the bottom of the market to 16.98% since September 2011. Perhaps that figure will decline as all figures bounce around in the short term, but the long term trend is undeniable. I expect the next ABS data to show similar growth as in the last quarter 3-4% which would bring ABS growth to 14-15% YoY.
I guess the reason you're posts have become so boring of late and desperate as demonstrated by your spam of every thread is due to your poor choices. You made the wrong choice, you misread the market or simply do not understand which is understandable as you live so far away so really have no clue on the current market.
If you think the market will be flat, from what start date to what end date. As last time you made a prediction of 3 months was totally wrong and it was only MY suggestion to look at the longer term trend over 12 months. You said you did not need 12 months back then but clearly you have changed your mind.
It certainly appears as though you are the stressed person with the deterioration of you're posts, all my properties are rising in value and some at boom levels, I am a happy chappy. Unlike yourself I am not invested in just the Perth market, I have properties in 4 different states all of which are presently growing, I cant complain really and the trend looks like it will continue over the next 2 years or so and we will have substantially higher prices by that time.
You missed you're opportunity to buy back into the Perth market at cheaper prices, I can understand that it frustrates you as you want to move back to Perth but must now pay much more then you thought. That's life some times you win, other times you lose. Im sure that UK house prices are rising and currency conversion will help you greatly, if indeed you own a home in the UK. If as you have claimed in the past this works so much in you're favour you have little to be concerned about. Gains you make in the UK can pay for higher prices in Perth.
Sorry - can't be bothered reading that dribble Mike. Seems the more stressed you get the more you type. After I got to the line 'RP Data your prefered index'. I've got bored of the number of times I've said RP Data doesn't work for Perth. It's meaningless. After that - I just assumed all you said was you usual lies and bullshit... Whatever keeps you sane Mike. I know it must be hurting. Don't give up the day job.
We have a gentleman's agreement Mike. I wouldn't call it a bet as nothing was waged. You said prices in May 2014 would be higher than they are in May 2013. I think you're wrong. Why complicate it? I have lots of other opinions which I'm happy to discuss with people. I think REIWA reported sales will start to fall as a result of the recnt budget. It's not a prediction - it's what I think will happen, and I'm happy to discuss it - even with the likes of you. Not Steinberg obviously as he smells. That's how this forum works. Someone expresses an idea - and then you talk about it. It just gets a bit silly when someone says - that's a prediction - I'm going to keep score.
So try this idea and see how it goes. I think the budget will start to impact sales Mike. What do you you think? (and don't answer it with pages and pages of crap)
In just 2 years or so the scaffolding put under the housing market is unprecedented.
WHAT!
You are saying the housing market support since mid 2011 is "UNPRECEDENTED".
Where have you been?
2008/9 cash rate was cut 3.75% and FHB grants were doubled and trebled.
20011/13 cash rate was cut 2.25% and FHB grants were scrapped in some states.
Newjez didn't screw up because he failed to anticipate support action. He screwed up because he based his predictions on his own wishful thinking.
How I long for the GHPC days with challenging intelligent bears. Still find it hard to believe what you wrote above. Are you a bull out to make the bears look dumb?
PS - thanks for replying and quoting my post. It'll allow newjez to continue to pretend he has me on ignore.
In just 2 years or so the scaffolding put under the housing market is unprecedented.
The only thing Newjez got wrong was that he underestimated the lengths the power to be will go to prop it up.
Additionally it must pointed out that At the time in 2011 when newjez made a couple of statements + 1 prediction the cash rate was %4.75.
Now August 2013 you can lock in 1 year fixed mortgage for %3.99 and the cash rate is approaching the %1.
The bears including Newjez are out in the car park sobering up whilst most of the bulls are still in the club and asking for intravenous drips.
NUFF SAID!!!
Wrong again, you need to go look at the data for Perth.
Total sales bottomed out in April 2011 and have begun to climb after this point. We had no interest rate cuts during this period, in fact banks had been increasing rates outside of RBA moves. Total value of sales bottomed out in June and the Median price bottomed out in September 2011.
If you had actually real world experience during this time you would have seen the pickup in activity throughout the middle part of 2011. How did I see this, well from June quarter to September quarter 2011 housing stock declined by 3,500 properties in just 3 months, representing a -14% decline. The march quarter had also seen declines of some 2,000 properties on the market despite interest rates rising during this period. The perception in the market place by most buyers was after the recent falls now was a good time to buy, and that is what happened.
The market had already started to grow in Perth long prior to the interest rate cut later in 2011 and cuts in 2012. The problem is by the time the data had caught up with what had already happened it was to late for people like yourself, Veritas, Nezjew to buy at the bottom, you missed it.
At one stage between June and September quarter 2011 the Perth Median fell to $450,000 for a few weeks until rising sales volumes pushed it up, the bottom of the market was in the real world in July/August 2011 although the official data for the period says it bottomed out at September 2011 at $467,000.
Perth did not need interest rate cuts as the market here had already begun to grow on the back of market fundamentals. Interest rate cuts since then have just made it easier for people to afford homes which has put further demand into the market. Perth already has a tight market for houses and very tight for land.
Tell me, what is you're bold prediction coming into the best selling period of the year, Spring and Summer when we start from a tight supply situation and lower interest rates as well as low unemployment, strong economy. Do you think prices are going to decline in this environment for the next few years. If you do put you're predictions out here so we can see them and hold you accountable to them.
Strindberg
23 Aug 2013, 04:03 PM
You just predicted the future again ("Perth properties all time high, which probably won't be seen again for quite some time.")
I would have thought that you would have given up doing that by now. You have made many predictions. They all failed. It is very fair of Mike to place your present prediction in the context of your past predictions. I realise you are upset at your serial cock-ups being revealed but that's no reason to call Mike dirty names.
Just a small sample of your predictions (all of which were wrong):
You saw the correction up to Q3 2011 and wet your knickers imagining it was the beginning of your hoped for crash. You gave much abuse to BP. A gentleman would apologise.
Just like the bears on GHPC in 2008/9. It's fun to watch.
Some more words of wisdom from Newjez.
Quote:
newjez24 May 2013, 01:01 PM
Go away with useless comments like this. Mike, you are looking at historical figures which show a strong rally - no one is denying that. We are looking at a turning point, driven by world events and their effects on WA. It hasn't happened yet; it is currently happening - hence there are no figures to back it up. Give us some time, and a trend may or may not be established. But if there is to be a halt to your rally, now looks like a likely time.
Good call, up to 30th of June 2013 ABS has Perth up 11%, 3.4% for the quarter you made this call in. RPdata has Perth up a further 4% in the September quarter. Well done.
Quote:
newjez23 May 2013, 01:27 PM Come on guys - we need some more hot air if we're going to keep this bubble inflated. Things are not looking good out there.
Property bulls of Perth, don't be shy - tell us all how good the market is again. Please? Prices to the moon and all that.
Oh - and can anyone explain why so many properties are selling in central Perth, and in City Beech?
This is just funny.
Quote:
newjez17 May 2013, 12:41 PM Old news Mike. I did agree with you, and I even turned bullish for a time.
But the gains have fizzled out. It's over.
The new liberals are only promising increased GST. Will that help your average financially stressed potential home owner? No.
We are heading into slump time. I'm not predicting a crash, but obviously there will be some reversals of the recent gains. Any urgency about buying a house has now gone though. I'd say that for the next three years at least Perth will be becalmed.
Nothing to see here.
Another great call with prices up about 7% from this time.
Quote:
newjez10 May 2013, 02:21 PM Perth was very predictable, and I've said as much.
I've also said - going forwards - I think it's peaked.
Peaked he said, right before a price surge.
Quote:
newjez26 Apr 2013, 10:51 AM Have a look at the Perth vacancy rate and the stock on market. Not to mention RP data. The tide could be turning.
At least you can claim to have got this right, the tide did turn prices surged up.
Quote:
newjez7 Apr 2013, 03:01 PM Loved it! Do you have any more?
Look at this one, happy as a pig in mud preying on others misfortune, to bad it turned out to be a fizzer. This shows Newjez true character and what he is up to. Everyone else has to suffer so he can gain.
Quote:
newjez31 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM No the crash is not back on - but I think the recovery was a blip. It's very hard to get excited over the Perth data. It bumps about all over the place.
Only bumps around for those who don't know how to read the data or interrupt it correctly, or solely use internet data rather then real experience.
Quote:
newjez25 Oct 2012, 01:17 PM Mike - do you mind shutting the window after your credibility please?
What a numbnut. If anything, this is representative of the decreasing volumes in Perth. You will see more wild swings as that data pool becomes so small as to be meaningless. I think Perth data has become so volatile that we can pretty much ignore it. It's volumes we need to be concentrating on now to give us trends. Volumes in themselves are hard to interpret without and ear to the ground.
Notice a trend Newjez, when the data starts showing figures you don't understand or fit you're world view it is called volatile by you. You never once thought you may have got it all wrong. You even called me a numbnut, who is the numbnut now
Quote:
newjez19 Oct 2012, 09:36 AM Frank - I'll think you'll find rents are increasing because house prices aren't. When you are unsure of where the economy is going, it makes more sense to take a short term hit on the rent.
Another classic.
Quote:
newjez24 Aug 2012, 02:49 PM
The froth is about to get blown off, and that my friends will hurt house prices. Not so much in Sydney - but definately in Perth.
How much have prices increased since this call....ouch.
Quote:
newjez23 Aug 2012, 05:26 AM
I love it Mike. You're a card. I only wish I was like shadow and could pull old posts out of my bum to taunt you at will.
Good to see you're in for the long game. This is so rich coming from the man who told us to get the most up to date data so we could get ahead of the curve and make a fast buck before the crowd caught up. Loving it mate. What happened to the quick turnover then? You always told us you were the yogi bear of the property investors?
But you fall into the same traps as all muppets do. When your short term bet goes pear shaped - then suddenly you're in for the long game. I'll let you into a little secret mate. A loss is a loss. It makes sod all difference if it's realised or not.
But the classic of all classics is the all time muppet denial behaviour.
Gold's not like silver - silvers high risk.
I'm not into internet shares - I'm buying the b2b shares.
I'm not buying mining properties - I'm buying properties in Perth. No risk there then.
Even Peter thinks Perth is risky.
Come on mate. Man up and sell. Join the bear camp. We don't bite. We may growl a bit. But most importantly, at this moment in time, and for the forseeable, we're right.
The party is well and truely over. Time to pick up a drunk girl and hope she's not too ugly in the morning.
How is this for advice, Newjez tells me to sell up everything right before prices boom up 11%, oh dear. Please don't give out more advice.
Quote:
newjez11 Aug 2012, 03:26 PM are we really thinking two years here? I'm thinking this will start to affect Perth prices now. Here's to a five percent drop by xmas!
I am wondering, how do you come up with so many great and bold predictions. I am yet to find one that you got correct.
Quote:
newjez6 Aug 2012, 08:29 AM Wow - Perth is dropping sharply Shadow - would that be the cancelled mining projects having an effect you think?
I spoke to soon, you got this right. Yes all those capex projects did have an effect, house prices surged up 11%. Well done.
Quote:
newjez29 Jul 2012, 12:58 PM Property sales in Perth this week - 739 Property sales 4 weeks ago - 1038
That's a 29% reduction in sales in 4 weeks Mike!
I can't believe it! A 29% reduction in sales!
That's a crash!
You said sales were going up. You said prices were going up!
Liar liar pants on fire. You're costing people money Mike.
Stop cherry picking your figures!
You even called me a liar, who is the liar now. Oh and how much money have you cost people by constantly telling people prices will fall when they have not and in fact increased greatly.
Plenty more I could quote but this is sufficient, I think my point has been proven just how much you got wrong. You may not recall or what you type but I certainly do.
In just 2 years or so the scaffolding put under the housing market is unprecedented.
The only thing Newjez got wrong was that he underestimated the lengths the power to be will go to prop it up.
Additionally it must pointed out that At the time in 2011 when newjez made a couple of statements + 1 prediction the cash rate was %4.75.
Now August 2013 you can lock in 1 year fixed mortgage for %3.99 and the cash rate is approaching the %1.
The bears including Newjez are out in the car park sobering up whilst most of the bulls are still in the club and asking for intravenous drips.
NUFF SAID!!!
But that's the thing isn't it? Local response to the GFC was a bit of an eye opener and should have taught us all some lessons. If someone told me in 2007 there would be a rebate of almost $40,000 in victoria a couple of years later to build a home on cheap land with next to no stamp duty i would have told them they had rocks in their head. We are at a record low cash rate and there is talk of it going lower, despite some significant property markets getting a big kick up the arse? Something else worth considering is why the hasn't fed stopped QE? Could it be possible there's a 'new' way of doing things for the foreseeable?
long story short, I don't believe we are going to have a recession until we absolutely have to have one.
(fwiw this post isn't directed towards newjez in any way and it's not a dig at you or anyone else)
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
long story short, I don't believe we are going to have a recession until we absolutely have to have one.
You said a mouthful there Mel. There is a possibility it might look like someone who did a fantastic 100m run who fakes the wrong way and gets smited by the entire opposition back line at once. US 10yr touched 2.9% last night. Cover defence is getting its act together.
Mind you, we are in better shape than we were the last time it happened in the mid 70s.
between you and me miw sometimes i have a couple of quiet drinks on a friday night, so please take anything i have said since 9AM with a grain of salt
Speaking of degenerates, i had a drunken uncle many years ago who read alot of newspapers and watched far too much of the ABC and SBS channels. He would often randomly (and very aggressivley) blurt out "it's all about the oil!" and "Australia is ten years behind America!"
At the time i thought he had lost his mind but there seems to be at least a little bit of truth in what he said.
at least he had access to the real VB bitter back then. Lucky bastard.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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