You are entitled to your opinion. Underneath I suspect you really feel sad for Veritas and in a way I do too. He acts in such a way that people cannot overlook his mistakes as he just keeps insisting he is right.
It is not childish to stand up for what you know is correct and accurate.
But he did admit his mistake, and said quite rightly that the statistic was pointless. If you don't bother to count a large section of the population then you can't really claim to show an accurate percentage of home ownership. To keep going over and over it is childish. Now please stop hijacking this thread. This thread is about Perth properties all time high, which probably won't be seen again for quite some time.
Another prediction from you, let's see how this one pans out shall we, not well I suspect.
Are you fucking mystic meg or something Mike? What's with all this - 'ha another prediction' stuff? I've made clear what I think the market will do in the next 12 months in Perth. Flat - probably with a bit of froth blown off.
Anything else I say is banter - usually aimed at winding you up. Seems to be working. You seem very stressed. Not Steinburg stressed, but stressed all the same. Worried stressed. I have the feeling you've gambled on getting into the big time. A bit over stretched maybe? Not happy about the market turning? My advice - don't panic - but stop lying to yourself.
Only skimmed through this thread. Same old same old.
There are about 40,000 bus drivers in Australia 10% of them are female
The Veritas goes off rattling on about how the number of female passengers on those buses are skewing the statistics and then complains how those statistics don't show how many passengers use those buses. Might be bits and pieces about how the passengers are getting older or how some of them use buses for longer trips but end of the day, the above statistics must be wrong.
Only skimmed through this thread. Same old same old.
There are about 40,000 bus drivers in Australia 10% of them are female
The Veritas goes off rattling on about how the number of female passengers on those buses are skewing the statistics and then complains how those statistics don't show how many passengers use those buses. Might be bits and pieces about how the passengers are getting older or how some of them use buses for longer trips but end of the day, the above statistics must be wrong.
That pretty much summed up the whole thread.
That's a crap analogy Trojan - please try harder.
A better one would be - we have 40,000 people between the ages of 35 and 45.
This week 10,000 were drinking beer, 10,000 were drinking wine.
Therefore I conclude that 50% of people between the ages of 35 and 45 drink beer.
That is effectively what the stat said. And it is true, 50% of the drinkers between 35 and 45 do drink beer. But only 25% of the 35 - 45 population drink beer.
You need to have an appreciation of what the stats are telling us.
Are you fucking mystic meg or something Mike? What's with all this - 'ha another prediction' stuff? I've made clear what I think the market will do in the next 12 months in Perth. Flat - probably with a bit of froth blown off.
Anything else I say is banter - usually aimed at winding you up. Seems to be working. You seem very stressed. Not Steinburg stressed, but stressed all the same. Worried stressed. I have the feeling you've gambled on getting into the big time. A bit over stretched maybe? Not happy about the market turning? My advice - don't panic - but stop lying to yourself.
You also made clear in 2012 on multiple occasions you thought the market would go down and it did not. Every time you noticed some declines in RPdata you jumped in and made bold statements. Every time you got it wrong.
You did the same back in April and May, you said you needed 3 months to prove the market was in decline. What happened, the market is up 11% to June 2013, 12.7% from the bottom of the market. Up to today the market is up another 4.28% as per you're now preferred choice of RP data. That is growth of 4.28% since 1st of July 2013 which is less then 8 weeks. As you bears like to use the present rate of growth in just the past 7 weeks on an annualised basis is 29% growth for the year if it was continued for 12 months.
So despite you're repeated claims of a declining market in 2012 and the 1st half of 2013, you were wrong by 12.7%. The market is now up as of today a further 4.28% this quarter, bringing total growth since the bottom of the market to 16.98% since September 2011. Perhaps that figure will decline as all figures bounce around in the short term, but the long term trend is undeniable. I expect the next ABS data to show similar growth as in the last quarter 3-4% which would bring ABS growth to 14-15% YoY.
I guess the reason you're posts have become so boring of late and desperate as demonstrated by your spam of every thread is due to your poor choices. You made the wrong choice, you misread the market or simply do not understand which is understandable as you live so far away so really have no clue on the current market.
If you think the market will be flat, from what start date to what end date. As last time you made a prediction of 3 months was totally wrong and it was only MY suggestion to look at the longer term trend over 12 months. You said you did not need 12 months back then but clearly you have changed your mind.
It certainly appears as though you are the stressed person with the deterioration of you're posts, all my properties are rising in value and some at boom levels, I am a happy chappy. Unlike yourself I am not invested in just the Perth market, I have properties in 4 different states all of which are presently growing, I cant complain really and the trend looks like it will continue over the next 2 years or so and we will have substantially higher prices by that time.
You missed you're opportunity to buy back into the Perth market at cheaper prices, I can understand that it frustrates you as you want to move back to Perth but must now pay much more then you thought. That's life some times you win, other times you lose. Im sure that UK house prices are rising and currency conversion will help you greatly, if indeed you own a home in the UK. If as you have claimed in the past this works so much in you're favour you have little to be concerned about. Gains you make in the UK can pay for higher prices in Perth.
A better one would be - we have 40,000 people between the ages of 35 and 45.
This week 10,000 were drinking beer, 10,000 were drinking wine.
Therefore I conclude that 50% of people between the ages of 35 and 45 drink beer.
That is effectively what the stat said. And it is true, 50% of the drinkers between 35 and 45 do drink beer. But only 25% of the 35 - 45 population drink beer.
You need to have an appreciation of what the stats are telling us.
You can use whatever analogy you want.
I was just highlighting that saying children who live at home with their parents has as much to do with homeowner statistics as female passengers have to do with bus driver statistics - absolutely none whatsoever.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
Only skimmed through this thread. Same old same old.
There are about 40,000 bus drivers in Australia 10% of them are female
The Veritas goes off rattling on about how the number of female passengers on those buses are skewing the statistics and then complains how those statistics don't show how many passengers use those buses. Might be bits and pieces about how the passengers are getting older or how some of them use buses for longer trips but end of the day, the above statistics must be wrong.
That pretty much summed up the whole thread.
Shadow, my main sparring partner in relation to this subject, has already capitulated.
This should tell you that you have this arse backwards and need to think about it again.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I was just highlighting that saying children who live at home with their parents has as much to do with homeowner statistics as female passengers have to do with bus driver statistics - absolutely none whatsoever.
Veritas thinks if he claims victory often enough somebody will believe him.
Are you fucking mystic meg or something Mike? What's with all this - 'ha another prediction' stuff? I've made clear what I think the market will do in the next 12 months in Perth. Flat - probably with a bit of froth blown off.
You just predicted the future again ("Perth properties all time high, which probably won't be seen again for quite some time.")
I would have thought that you would have given up doing that by now. You have made many predictions. They all failed. It is very fair of Mike to place your present prediction in the context of your past predictions. I realise you are upset at your serial cock-ups being revealed but that's no reason to call Mike dirty names.
Just a small sample of your predictions (all of which were wrong):
Quote:
newjez 28 Jul 2011, 05:48 PM
I can see prices falling off the edge of the earth from here.
Quote:
newjez 17 Aug 2011, 07:07 PM Perth market is where the crash will start and it will be the most badly affected. ..... Prices will be trashed.
Quote:
newjez 31 Aug 2011, 09:39 PM
If there is to be a crash it will be on the West coast and within a year.
Quote:
newjez Posted 20 Apr 2012, 05:13 AM
If I had to make a prediction, I would expect a sharp drop over 2012/2013,
You saw the correction up to Q3 2011 and wet your knickers imagining it was the beginning of your hoped for crash. You gave much abuse to BP. A gentleman would apologise.
Just like the bears on GHPC in 2008/9. It's fun to watch.
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