Seriously most of the news out of the US has been pretty positive economy-wise the past couple of months. You can always pull out some bad numbers out of the volatile series, but most of the leading indicators are consistent with a modest but accelerating recovery. The concurrent indicators just show an exasperatingly slow recovery but a recovery nevertheless.
How the stock market reacts is only of secondary interest on that front, but I do take the slow creep up of long-term bond yields as a positive sign.
The wildcard, as ever, is Europe and for the first time in a long time that is looking a bit positive as well. China's exports to Europe has a surprise jump last month, even though the Eurozone's trade surplus increased at the same time. (imports and exports both rose).
One indicator that I watch carefully which is advising caution is the YoY %change of the NFP. It has stalled out at 1.7%. If it turns over and goes down below 1%, then look out!
Europe is still mainly a mess, a couple of countries having a good moment pulling the "average up" does not take away the fact that many of the countries are still basket cases.
Yes, some figures from the US have been quite good, my contention is that there has been very little "trickle down" and the gains have been limited to the few.
America still has problems and I do not think they are out of the woods yet.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
I would say a global recovery would see gold lower... However that has not been the case over the past few months.
I see potholes on the way however so interest rates should remain low during this weak period for WA. Luckily.
Your view would see interest rates rising globally while WA hits the skids.
I mean your call on WA jobs was a pure piece of gold... priceless.
Be careful what you wish for.
Europe growing, China growing at 7.5%, US growing, ASEAN growing, Africa growing. Where is the global recession or doom and gloom?
Potholes, No time in history is there ever no potholes. With your view of the world im surprised you leave you're home in fear of disaster striking.
I expect interest rates to rise as global growth picks up with a strong Chinese and US economy leading the way, I have stated this for some time.
My jobs prediction was spot on, I said at the time you stated declines that was incorrect and it was, I also said unemployment figures will be volatile for a few years while the economy transitions. Unemployment is 4.6%
I believe gold will trend down over the longer term, regardless if it is good or bad for the economy that is my view.
I believe house prices in Australia will trend down over the longer term. I have dozens of fundamental indicators like unsustainable debt levels and unsustainable mortgage rates, as well as several years of downward trends to back up the belief. What do you base your belief on?
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
I see you are learning well from Veritas at the art of misrepresenting the statements of other posters. You just made up that shit which you maliciously attribute to me. But of course, I'm not surprised you are reverting to dishonesty - you lose every single discussion and your lies are true to your form.
As I pointed out to Veritas, being dishonest will not get you the Armageddon which you hope and crave for and that cheap house in Perth at others' expense of which you are both dreaming.
You said you were going to ignore me and that's fine, but if you are going to continue to abuse me as above I'm happy to respond in kind to dishonest fuckfaces like yourself.
Answer the question dickhead or slither away somewhere else.
Reconcile your sig claim with the data revealed by the 2011 census.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I believe house prices in Australia will trend down over the longer term. I have dozens of fundamental indicators like unsustainable debt levels and unsustainable mortgage rates, as well as several years of downward trends to back up the belief. What do you base your belief on?
Goldbug, Australian houses have very very rarely gone down and when they have it is usually only for 1 or 2 years.
You make such a wild extreme prediction. We have not seen anything like this for at least 50 years. It really is kinda out there Goldbug.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
5%. My electricity and food bill is up over 5% yoy. So the value of Perth property kept pace with inflation for a change, big deal. it's over pigiron, the dream was just that, a dream in the minds of a nation that thought it could live outside the financial realities of the world as a whole.
We have not seen anything like this for 80 years. It's called entering a depression and only the final gasps of the digital printing presses are forestalling it. House prices could fall for 20 years, or longer...
As oil prices started to bite, the new housing being built in distant suburbs and even more remote 'exurbs' became less viable for commuters. Once house prices started to unwind (who would have thought it could happen everywhere at once?)
The conventional wisdom is that this financial crisis is a result of a housing bubble in the United States. While that is true, it is also a result of limits to oil supply being reached. So in this article, and particularly in the final graph, I'm showing that the decline in the availability of oil to drive vehicles is linked to the decline in house prices.
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