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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,423 Views)
newjez
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Strindberg
8 Aug 2013, 01:19 PM
Mike, it's clear to all that you were right and newjez is making up slimy cringe making wriggling excuses and has you on ignore because he's sick of losing.


Yes, he relies on his brother to give him info. He prefers that to professional data because his brother is a doomer and tells him what he wants to hear ie that Perth prices are falling and that justifies his waiting for the crash before buying. He doesn't then have to face the fact that he's lost bigtime by waiting.
Read the thread you slimy little tosser.

You know my brothers? Funny arsehole - because they are property investors. My elder brother holds three. My younger brother used to hold four, but has reduced to 1. He is selling as he is currently building and doesn't want to be over exposed. So shove that up your arse!

Christ you sound like Skamy mate - is Skamy Strindberg lite? Why do you care anyway? You're not even a bull?

I didn't even say Perth prices would fall - I just said they would be flat. How much of a doomer is that?

Oh, and thanks Veritas
Edited by newjez, 8 Aug 2013, 01:50 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Strindberg
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newjez
8 Aug 2013, 01:35 PM
Read the thread you slimy little tosser.
I read it. That's how I know that you stupidly rely on your brother rather than the ABS, Residex, RP Data and APM.

Anyway, you must admit it was hilarious that you wrote it was a safe bet that the ABS will not report double digit growth. Not surprised you are reverting to insults after making yourself look such a dick. That's what creamed bears do.

Edit add:
Ah - just seen you've added some more filth to your post. Yes, it must be upsetting to be seen to be such a gullible loser. Really, you should be taking your frustration and anger out on your brother rather than me but I don't mind. I quite like to see bears' tantrums.
Edited by Strindberg, 8 Aug 2013, 01:49 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Elastic
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Mike
8 Aug 2013, 01:27 PM
I am happy to take a bet for the market in 12 months time, no problems.

All we need to do is work out the parameters.

Are you saying that prices in 12 months from now will lose all of the 12.7% in gains according the ABS figures and be lower, erasing all the present gains?

Or are you saying prices will not rise further as per the ABS figures of june 30th 2013 and be lower on june 30th 2014. So if prices declined by 0.1% over the 12 months you would be correct.

For myself I am happy to say prices will rise over the year from 30th of June 2013 to 30th of June 2014. So we will know around this time next year by the time the ABS releases the data.

Happy with that or do you have conditions.
C'mon Mike I'm not some diehard doom and gloomer who reads two bit dodgy websites like Macrobusiness to reaffirm my sick twisted doomer mentality.
I had been quite bullish on Perth for the last 12 months so I'll let you keep your 12.7%.
We can take it from June 2013 to June 2014. If it's close we may need to use the revised ABS figures for the June 2014 quarter.
Let's see how useful it is to be on the front line as opposed to scanning data.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Mike
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Strindberg
8 Aug 2013, 01:19 PM
Mike, it's clear to all that you were right and newjez is making up slimy cringe making wriggling excuses and has you on ignore because he's sick of losing.


Yes, he relies on his brother to give him info. He prefers that to professional data because his brother is a doomer and tells him what he wants to hear ie that Perth prices are falling and that justifies his waiting for the crash before buying. He doesn't then have to face the fact that he's lost bigtime by waiting.
Yes it is easy enough to see that, I did enjoy his posts at times and some times he did make some points. Recently though as the price rises in Perth became ever more clear he posts became more erratic.

What I could see happening on the ground in the past 3-6 months has shown up in the ABS data. I think what Newjez and some other Perth bears looked at was a slower April and April was a little slower. That was after an unusually strong Jan/Feb/March. May was very strong and June was also solid. July is looking to be unusually strong for a winter month in price growth although im sure sales will be slightly lower.

Looking forward Perth will enter the strongest months for buying/selling property with the lowest stock levels since the previous boom years of 2004 to 2006. We have very low stock levels for all 3 areas, land, units and houses. Throw in lower rates and a rate cut prior to the strongest period of the year and it all points to a very solid next 6 months.

I do agree with Veritas in the Perth did not need the rate cuts. The Perth market was already turning in 2011 off the back of 10% falls in prices after the mini Rudd inspired boom. Incomes and inflation had also worked their magic over the previous years to make Perth one of the most affordable large cities in Australia combined with the highest incomes. Stock levels began to drop away as the cheap end of the market was snapped up by FHB and investors in late 2011 and most of 2012. This soaked up much of the excess stock and upgraders started to enter the market, putting their own houses up for sale again and moving on up the ladder. The upgraders is what has really driven the market in 2013. The competition for those middle and inner suburbs is fierce. We have also now seen the top end of the market begin to move which is up over 4.4% in 2013.

Due to long term low construction levels we have little new stock entering the market, well below demand levels. Land is the key shortage and 2013 has seen price growth of 20% in land prices. There is talk about the Govt changing the FHB grant to new builds only. I do like this, but pushing FHB to build new homes with a limited supply of land will only mean one thing, land prices will rise further. The Govt needs to find a away to double or triple land supply in a short period to balance the market.

I would also agree with Veritas that a blackswan event is what is needed to hurt the Australian property market. Either a large regional war or another GFC type event or larger. The problem is the GFC was the largest economic shock for 80 years and is unlikely to be repeated any time soon. I would actually say the chances are higher for a regional war then another GFC type event.

Do I think prices will go crazy like 2004-6 when prices doubled, no. I have said many times I think the market will top out at 15-25% growth, I now think 25% is very achievable with in 2 years time as we have already had 12.7% with 11% of that in the last 12 months.

http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Elastic
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Strindberg
8 Aug 2013, 01:19 PM
Mike, it's clear to all that you were right and newjez is making up slimy cringe making wriggling excuses and has you on ignore because he's sick of losing.


Yes, he relies on his brother to give him info. He prefers that to professional data because his brother is a doomer and tells him what he wants to hear ie that Perth prices are falling and that justifies his waiting for the crash before buying. He doesn't then have to face the fact that he's lost bigtime by waiting.
I read this and thought that was a funny piece of satire, then realised Strindberg wrote it and got a little shiver up my spine.

Go out and get some sunshine Strindberg.
Edited by Elastic, 8 Aug 2013, 01:52 PM.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Mike
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Elastic
8 Aug 2013, 01:45 PM
C'mon Mike I'm not some diehard doom and gloomer who reads two bit dodgy websites like Macrobusiness to reaffirm my sick twisted doomer mentality.
I had been quite bullish on Perth for the last 12 months so I'll let you keep your 12.7%.
We can take it from June 2013 to June 2014. If it's close we may need to use the revised ABS figures for the June 2014 quarter.
Let's see how useful it is to be on the front line as opposed to scanning data.
Sounds good to me. June 30th 2013 to June 30th 2014. If it is that close we need to use revised figures I will give you the win, I'm not going to squabble over 1-2%.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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newjez
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Strindberg
8 Aug 2013, 01:44 PM
I read it. That's how I know that you stupidly rely on your brother rather than the ABS, Residex, RP Data and APM.

Anyway, you must admit it was hilarious that you wrote it was a safe bet that the ABS will not report double digit growth. Not surprised you are reverting to insults after making yourself look such a dick. That's what creamed bears do.

Edit add:
Ah - just seen you've added some more filth to your post. Yes, it must be upsetting to be seen to be such a gullible loser. Really, you should be taking your frustration and anger out on your brother rather than me but I don't mind. I quite like to see bears' tantrums.
I think it may be you having a tantrum mate. Just try and calm it down a bit. Why the sudden interest? Has Mike borrowed your login?

It was rp data - not ABS. I wasn't actually implying that people take money, and bet it on Perth RP Data going below ten. I was saying that RP Data for Perth is very volatile. But it was a fifity fifty bet.

Calm down dear, you'll bust a vein.
Strindberg
8 Aug 2013, 01:44 PM
I read it. That's how I know that you stupidly rely on your brother rather than the ABS, Residex, RP Data and APM.

Anyway, you must admit it was hilarious that you wrote it was a safe bet that the ABS will not report double digit growth. Not surprised you are reverting to insults after making yourself look such a dick. That's what creamed bears do.

Edit add:
Ah - just seen you've added some more filth to your post. Yes, it must be upsetting to be seen to be such a gullible loser. Really, you should be taking your frustration and anger out on your brother rather than me but I don't mind. I quite like to see bears' tantrums.
'doomer' is skamy's favourite word. But I doubt you are skamy. There is something of the night about you that Skamy clearly doesn't have.
Elastic
8 Aug 2013, 01:51 PM
I read this and thought that was a funny piece of satire, then realised Strindberg wrote it and got a little shiver up my spine.

Go out and get some sunshine Strindberg.
Don't know why Strindberg has such an interest. I hardly ever talk to the man. (I find him slightly scary - he reminds me of a computer sci fi villain, with a huge computer net at his disposal that wil reach through the net and destroy you. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a black car with dark windows idling outside my house right now. Scary stuff.
Edited by newjez, 8 Aug 2013, 02:03 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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newjez
7 Aug 2013, 05:24 AM


Happy?
Ok

Fine it is your choice. I personally don't ignore anyone, though some posters are quite the misogenxists, ageists and/or racists. I like free speech, I think it is important. But I respect your right to feel differently, each to his own. It was good of you to give closure on the bet.

I also agree with you about the word "retard" it is not nice term, particularly for those who have family who struggle with dyslexia or other learning difficulties.
Veritas
8 Aug 2013, 01:11 PM
Oh dear. WA unemployment rate among males rises from 4.6% to 5.2% in one month!

Cheap money, I'd like to introduce you to deteriorating fundamentals.
That is very sad Veritas and the sadder thing is it will be mostly young folk, last in first out.

However,we have a few good thing coming along, lots of mining royalties and housing taxes for the state government and lots of new homes on the books for next year so let us hope for better times ahead.

WA was improving well before the cheap money, housing had been too cheap to facilitate new building for too long and this is what is fueling the market.
Edited by skamy, 8 Aug 2013, 02:17 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Strindberg
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newjez
8 Aug 2013, 01:54 PM
It was rp data - not ABS. I wasn't actually implying that people take money, and bet it on Perth RP Data going below ten. I was saying that RP Data for Perth is very volatile. But it was a fifity fifty bet.
You are now reinventing your post. Your "safe bet" was clearly referring to the ABS release the day following your post.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8416211&t=9895666

Quote:
 
newjez 5 Aug 2013, 11:18 PM

Yes - but with rpdata - you can place a safe bet that it won't be double figures tomorrow.

Reiwa has it at a more modest 5%. ABS who knows - out tomorrow I think.

I'm sure the truth is out there.


You can't honestly squirm and claim that the data you were referring to as "out tomorrow" was NOT the ABS data out the next day. The RP Data for "tomorrow" was also double figures.

Your denial that your safe bet referred to ABS makes you dishonest, very forgetful, or very muddled.

And furthermore, the term "safe bet" which you used is not "a fifty fifty bet" as you now claim. You are digging a deeper hole in your effort to get out of the pile of shit you have got yourself in.

Edited by Strindberg, 8 Aug 2013, 02:33 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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skamy
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Elastic
8 Aug 2013, 01:45 PM
C'mon Mike I'm not some diehard doom and gloomer who reads two bit dodgy websites like Macrobusiness to reaffirm my sick twisted doomer mentality.
I had been quite bullish on Perth for the last 12 months so I'll let you keep your 12.7%.
We can take it from June 2013 to June 2014. If it's close we may need to use the revised ABS figures for the June 2014 quarter.
Let's see how useful it is to be on the front line as opposed to scanning data.
Elastic, Perth is not Sydney is is coming off a big low, you can buy a beautiful home on 1000sqm in the best areas close to the river for less than $2m. In real terms, having lived in both cities, Perth is running about 1/2 the price of Sydney for like with like, IMHO, yet our wages are the same. I doubt Perth will fall from here, it is just how much growth is reasonable and whether the big end of town starts to wake up (I don't want it too yet as we hope to buy something nice for a forever home early next year). I don't think it will match Sydney for price growth over the next 5 - 10 years, as Perth can bring land to the market fairly quickly which will put a floor under the market, but predicting a fall in prices from these low 2007 prices we are seeing today is a very big long shot IMHO.

The big mistake that the Eastern states folk make is they think Perth is all about mining, whereas it is also a wealthy city which is just emerging from almost a decade of dropping or stagnating house prices, a decade of growth in population and a decade of a dearth of new building. Sure the caravans are emptying of the FIFO workers and rents are easing, but the bottom line is that house prices have dropped over the past few years and a good few billions have been invested in this state's future over that time. Confidence has reignited and folk are buying and building homes for themselves again.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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