The difference is we are right and you have been proven wrong now for a number of years.
I called the up market 2 years ago prior to prices rising, why I noticed what was happening out in the real world.
Now you can talk about mining, jobs, interest rates, anything you like. It does not alter the fact on the ground.
This is my 100% honest opinion and its based on everything I see with my own two eyes on a daily basis. The market is strong, much stronger then normal for this time of year. It is off slightly from Feb/March/April but that is a normal seasonal factor. Everything I am seeing on a daily basis, land sales, houses go on the market and with in days they under offer, don't even make it to the 1st home open. Home opens are just nuts, go visit a few Perthite, do your own homework, you only need to venture outside to see what is happening. The market right now shows no signs of slowing down as of today.
Now for some perspective as you say, which I always have. I am not one of these bulls that say prices never decline or will always go up. I can at times be a bear as it also makes me money if prices decline and I pick up bargains.
Going forward, what I do see is a lot of house sales to investors, and investors are strong right now in the market. The increased supply of rentals will help balance the rental market if we get to 3% vacancy rate or higher. Once this level is reached you may see a small uptick from investors selling properties and taking advantage of the higher prices. This will bring more stock to market and help contain prices. I have seen no indications of forced sales or people selling due to job losses, they barely exist at present. I would also suggest there is more people selling higher priced homes now, as prices have gone up so they can move or build a new home.
Perspective is something you also need, you are so negative it clouds your view to all other factors. Very few bears ever say anything positive at all, as if it will some how influence the market. I can accept negative or positive, this is the real world I don't control it but I adapt and change to the circumstances.
You from what you type never adapt, you just hope prices will crash or at least fall to a level in which you would buy. Perhaps you should create plan just in case, prices never do crash or fall to a level you like. That is also possible. I do have a plan in place in the unlikely event prices fall a lot, with the amount of money I have to draw on I could add 6-8 properties if prices fell 40%. Just like you see in the USA, investors swooping in and picking up all the properties. Same will happen here, just like the USA prices will rebound in time and investors who are prepared will make a fortune. Not everyone can do this but more then you think can and will. You may dream of prices falling a lot but it wont be like you think, it never is.
We are going to see what happens to property prices during a turbulent time for the local economy.
But remember house prices are extremely sticky.
Watch the trends.
Just sit back and watch.
No one should be patting themselves on the back for at least a year.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I do not know where this new generation gets their ideas about property from. The old adage that "you don't wait to buy property you buy property and wait" is as true today as it has ever been. All those guys laughed and mocked when I came on here last year and said Perth looked like it was no longer a buyers market and I told of the way I had found the market as a purchaser.
They have missed out big time. Now they are sitting around thinking that the return of some of the FIFO brigade to their hometowns that they mostly never left is gonna sink prices, when the arrival of the massive workforce a few years ago coincided with 20% plus price drops in house prices. The real population of Perth will enjoy the increased exports enabled by this investment for the next decade.
You would think that Australia is gonna suddenly go from the top of the heap as a preferred mining investment region to zero the way they go on.
It will be interesting to see what happens to all those stalled projects (sitting idle with huge capital invested already) when the world economy picks up and if the dollar continues to fall a bit more getting us a more competitive edge again.
Yep
I agree skamy I don't understand..the logic of the hope for Prices to fall ...
Also, I do honestly believe that as time goes on there will be greater numbers of financially independent savvy ladies getting more involved in property...
Wont be a need to believe in prince charming anymore But they are good for some things you know I gotta say that.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
When he also discussed the recession you guys ignore.
Falling population growth.
Falling rents.
Nothing you acknowledge.
Mike
10 Jun 2013, 10:06 PM
The difference is we are right and you have been proven wrong now for a number of years.
I called the up market 2 years ago prior to prices rising, why I noticed what was happening out in the real world.
Now you can talk about mining, jobs, interest rates, anything you like. It does not alter the fact on the ground.
This is my 100% honest opinion and its based on everything I see with my own two eyes on a daily basis. The market is strong, much stronger then normal for this time of year. It is off slightly from Feb/March/April but that is a normal seasonal factor. Everything I am seeing on a daily basis, land sales, houses go on the market and with in days they under offer, don't even make it to the 1st home open. Home opens are just nuts, go visit a few Perthite, do your own homework, you only need to venture outside to see what is happening. The market right now shows no signs of slowing down as of today.
Now for some perspective as you say, which I always have. I am not one of these bulls that say prices never decline or will always go up. I can at times be a bear as it also makes me money if prices decline and I pick up bargains.
Going forward, what I do see is a lot of house sales to investors, and investors are strong right now in the market. The increased supply of rentals will help balance the rental market if we get to 3% vacancy rate or higher. Once this level is reached you may see a small uptick from investors selling properties and taking advantage of the higher prices. This will bring more stock to market and help contain prices. I have seen no indications of forced sales or people selling due to job losses, they barely exist at present. I would also suggest there is more people selling higher priced homes now, as prices have gone up so they can move or build a new home.
Perspective is something you also need, you are so negative it clouds your view to all other factors. Very few bears ever say anything positive at all, as if it will some how influence the market. I can accept negative or positive, this is the real world I don't control it but I adapt and change to the circumstances.
You from what you type never adapt, you just hope prices will crash or at least fall to a level in which you would buy. Perhaps you should create plan just in case, prices never do crash or fall to a level you like. That is also possible. I do have a plan in place in the unlikely event prices fall a lot, with the amount of money I have to draw on I could add 6-8 properties if prices fell 40%. Just like you see in the USA, investors swooping in and picking up all the properties. Same will happen here, just like the USA prices will rebound in time and investors who are prepared will make a fortune. Not everyone can do this but more then you think can and will. You may dream of prices falling a lot but it wont be like you think, it never is.
Ohh Please... 1 year out of 6.....
Wrong much?
Ignore the economy at your peril.BG it seems you are the most realistic...
Well, one of my brothers has kindly sent me an email that he received from his real estate agency that manages his properties.. I will quote some parts of the letter... RENTAL MARKET UPDATE
"Since October of last year the vacancy rate across Perth has steadily risen resulting in the number of available listings increasing(10% increase from the end of March 2013. We are now finding that the market is much more price sensitive and those properties that are sitting over the current market rate are now experiencing longer than usual vacancy periods. Many of our landlords are requesting that we reduce rents to make their homes more attractive to potential tenants. This change in the market is a result of a combination of factors. Firstly, the rental market has been exceptionally buoyant for some time and a natural correction is occurring. There is also a considerable decrease in the number of people moving to W.A..
if your property is currently, or shortly becoming vacant, your Property Manager will provide you with a professional opinion of the market rent for your properties and will keep you updated with any progress with the leasing process."
I'm not sure if I believe that it's the landlords request or is it the agent really advising to reduce the rent... So it does state that rental rate has dropped but not by how much
It also states that the population rate for W.A has decreased...how much exactly?
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Well, one of my brothers has kindly sent me an email that he received from his real estate agency that manages his properties.. I will quote some parts of the letter... RENTAL MARKET UPDATE
"Since October of last year the vacancy rate across Perth has steadily risen resulting in the number of available listings increasing(10% increase from the end of March 2013. We are now finding that the market is much more price sensitive and those properties that are sitting over the current market rate are now experiencing longer than usual vacancy periods. Many of our landlords are requesting that we reduce rents to make their homes more attractive to potential tenants. This change in the market is a result of a combination of factors. Firstly, the rental market has been exceptionally buoyant for soe fine and a natural correction is occurring. There is also a considerable decrease in the number of people moving to W.A..
if your property is currently, or shortly becoming vacant, your Property Manager will provide you with a professional opinion of the market rent for your properties and will keep you updated with any progress with the leading process."
I'm not sure if I believe that it's the landlords request or is it the agent really advising to reduce the rent... So it does state that rental rate has dropped but not by how much
It also states that the population rate for W.A has decreased...how much exactly?
It will be interesting to see....
Population growth could still be rising strongly.
Perhaps people are hesitant to rent until they gain employment.
when perth housing crashes i'll admit it, no sweat. when iron ore crashes i'll admit it.
.
Could I ask what iron ore price would lead you to admit that it had gone lower than you foresaw or predicted? 90? 80? And we should clarify if you are speaking of AUD or USD. Also does it need to stay there for a day, a month, etc. So many potential future debates over this haha.
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