Seriously, how can anyone look at the data available and conclude Perth house prices is crashing? Makes me wonder do they install a Macrobusiness proxy on their computer and all house price changes come back with a negative sign in front of it? Like do they see ABS report Perth YOY house prices grew at -11% ?
Up 11% as per the ABS. So who is right now the ABS and every other data set or Reiwa.
The ABS came in at 3.4% for June quarter, RP data had it at 4.4%. Did you not say that prices would fall from April? I do recall a bet.
The other Perth uberbear Perthite also said prices would fall from April and the market had turned. Opps. Just another prediction they got wrong in a long line of them.
Can some one quote me please so Newjez can read this.
Hey newjez man up and take it on the chin. You are better than this -it is a silly business to put folk on ignore,when you lose a bet.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
the house i'm in now has been rising as well. wrong. the title is in my name, i own it. the bank only has an interest in it.
honestly your lack of knowledge is pretty bloody embarrassing at times. this is always a risk. should people hold off doing things throughout their life because there -might- be a better opportunity later? i think that's a foolish way to live...
very true, start small and if you are right you will grow peter
11% YoY growth, drought is it maybe for bears that is for sure. The ABS proved me correct on another prediction of mine, that Perth property prices have been increasing at an increasing rate. Ouch, I was right on the money again.
Now Perth has had 11.1% YoY growth from 30th of June 2012 to 30th of June 2013, lets look at growth since the bottom of the market.
So since the bottom of the market in September 2011 the Perth market has bounced back by 12.7% as per ABS data. Even macrobussiness now has the Perth market 4.2% above its previous high in nominal terms.
Another point I got correct a few months ago, go check my posts on this forum. I stated that across the market I thought prices had increased by about 13%. My own figures and observations is what lead me to this figure, I was pretty damm close according to the ABS.
RPdata which now looks bearish compared to ABS data shows Perth up almost another 4% since 30th of June 2013. I do not think the growth is that strong but I could be wrong, it is more likely the RPdata is playing catchup with the ABS which has a lot more resources to collate data. My prediction for September quarter would be a similar result as the June quarter in the 3-4% range. The December 2013 and March 2014 is when the potential for much higher growth is really go to kick in.
Hey newjez man up and take it on the chin. You are better than this -it is a silly business to put folk on ignore,when you lose a bet.
I ignore Mike because he says the same thing repeatedly and he stalks me. I also ignore Blonde Girl because she's annoying and I don't like the way she uses the word 'Retard'. I find it offensive. I don't ignore anyone else, and don't intend to.
I have acknowledged the abs 11%. Whoopie what a day! Hey hey, the great bull run of 2013. Didn't us bears get horns up our arses. Ouch. Happy?
I have even found the bet Mike referred to, over and over and over and over and over again. Until I just got bored to tears. He even got that wrong. It was on May 17th, on one of pig iron's threads.
I said that the market was turning, but we would need at least 3 months to see the early signs, and 12 months to be sure (or words to that effect)
Mike said that was silly, 3 months wasn't enough time, and asked it to be bookmarked - and I quote, 'The Perth market will be up in 12 months from now, lock it in and remind me in 12 months time'. So we'll talk about this on 17th May 2014.
I hadn't even realised we had a bet - but apparently we do. I have searched on 'bet Newjez' and various other links, but I can't find anything else that he seems to be alluring to. Please let me know if you can. Mike refers to March, but in March, much as a surprise to me, some of my posts even seemed bullish, although it was clear I was starting to return to the dark side.
I'll keep Mike on ignore because he's the boring guy at the party, and I've taken one for the team enough times, so it's someone else's turn.
Happy?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Stock on market has decline by over 400 properties in the last few weeks. This is surprising as you would typically see a buildup of stock over winter as sales slow due to bad weather. That does not appear to be happening with sales remaining strong and outstripping supply.
If stock on market remains low as it is now or even falls further it will create a supply issue as demand increases during the typically strong buying seasons of spring and summer. With the recent rate cut this spring is set to be one of the best selling seasons since 2004 to 2006.
What is driving Perth housing high is a lack of new homes, demand is simply outstripping the ability to meet demand. If Perth had ample supply of housing it would not matter if rates fell as supply would be sufficient to meet the increased demand and hence little pressure on prices. Right now we have tight supply for large demand this is a result of a failure to build enough homes of the previous 5 years putting huge pressure on existing stock and bidding up prices. Critical shortage of quality homes in sort after locations, they will fetch a premium come spring time.
Seriously, how can anyone look at the data available and conclude Perth house prices is crashing? Makes me wonder do they install a Macrobusiness proxy on their computer and all house price changes come back with a negative sign in front of it? Like do they see ABS report Perth YOY house prices grew at -11% ?
How can you look at the data and see anything other than a cheap money fuelled bull run?
the fundamentals of the economy are deteriorating and yet house price inflation is off the charts. What gives?
Stock on market has decline by over 400 properties in the last few weeks. This is surprising as you would typically see a buildup of stock over winter as sales slow due to bad weather. That does not appear to be happening with sales remaining strong and outstripping supply.
If stock on market remains low as it is now or even falls further it will create a supply issue as demand increases during the typically strong buying seasons of spring and summer. With the recent rate cut this spring is set to be one of the best selling seasons since 2004 to 2006.
What is driving Perth housing high is a lack of new homes, demand is simply outstripping the ability to meet demand. If Perth had ample supply of housing it would not matter if rates fell as supply would be sufficient to meet the increased demand and hence little pressure on prices. Right now we have tight supply for large demand this is a result of a failure to build enough homes of the previous 5 years putting huge pressure on existing stock and bidding up prices. Critical shortage of quality homes in sort after locations, they will fetch a premium come spring time.
And the cheap money Mike.
Please stop forgetting to mention what you know is true.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I ignore Mike because he says the same thing repeatedly and he stalks me. I also ignore Blonde Girl because she's annoying and I don't like the way she uses the word 'Retard'. I find it offensive. I don't ignore anyone else, and don't intend to.
I have acknowledged the abs 11%. Whoopie what a day! Hey hey, the great bull run of 2013. Didn't us bears get horns up our arses. Ouch. Happy?
I have even found the bet Mike referred to, over and over and over and over and over again. Until I just got bored to tears. He even got that wrong. It was on May 17th, on one of pig iron's threads.
I said that the market was turning, but we would need at least 3 months to see the early signs, and 12 months to be sure (or words to that effect)
Mike said that was silly, 3 months wasn't enough time, and asked it to be bookmarked - and I quote, 'The Perth market will be up in 12 months from now, lock it in and remind me in 12 months time'. So we'll talk about this on 17th May 2014.
I hadn't even realised we had a bet - but apparently we do. I have searched on 'bet Newjez' and various other links, but I can't find anything else that he seems to be alluring to. Please let me know if you can. Mike refers to March, but in March, much as a surprise to me, some of my posts even seemed bullish, although it was clear I was starting to return to the dark side.
I'll keep Mike on ignore because he's the boring guy at the party, and I've taken one for the team enough times, so it's someone else's turn.
Happy?
I like how he twists it.
It was me who originally said prices would be up in 12 months time. Newjez said prices would begin falling 3 months from the date of the bet. I gave him an option to instead look at the market in 12 months time as I knew prices would not fall in that time frame. Newjez was sure prices would fall, yet he had said similar things in 2012 and prices continued to rise. That was at least the 3rd occasion Newjez had said prices would fall over the past year or so, wrong on all counts. He will continue to be wrong over the next 18 months or so as this bull market runs its course.
I am happy for Newjez to keep me on ignore as I can refute his claims yet he cannot counter mine, a win win for me.
It is surprising though that some one who claims to live presently in the UK would have any real knowledge on the present market in Perth, hence why he keeps getting it wrong.
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