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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,426 Views)
Veritas
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Mike
6 Aug 2013, 12:00 PM
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth up again another all time high reached. This is a very strong rally. Same for Sydney.

The one thing Perth and Sydney have in common is lower unemployment levels and some of the highest incomes in the nation. Both also have tight supply levels of houses and land. Combined with lower rates that is a powerful combination.
A powerful combination alright...for greed and fear driven carnage.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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doubleview
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Mike
6 Aug 2013, 12:00 PM
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth up again another all time high reached. This is a very strong rally. Same for Sydney.

The one thing Perth and Sydney have in common is lower unemployment levels and some of the highest incomes in the nation. Both also have tight supply levels of houses and land. Combined with lower rates that is a powerful combination.
Fuck me dead I thought you were selling up?

See this is the type of shit were you lose most of the bears?

This is the classic delusion shiit bears are sick of.

hedge your bets say your selling & then say the market outlook is extremely bullish!!

That way you cant be wrong either way & never get your hand caught in the cookie jar.

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Mike
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doubleview
6 Aug 2013, 12:26 PM
Fuck me dead I thought you were selling up?

See this is the type of shit were you lose most of the bears?

This is the classic delusion shiit bears are sick of.

hedge your bets say your selling & then say the market outlook is extremely bullish!!

That way you cant be wrong either way & never get your hand caught in the cookie jar.
I have sold (under offer) 1 property. My wife and I have 12 more. With 3 under construction and another to start in the next few months.

I may look to sell one more as the others near completion in spring/summer.

I am realist, when it looks like prices will fall I will look to buy during the bear market. At present I wish land would fall as I want to do another development once these complete. Anyone who has done developments understands how much time and planning is required, so long lead in times. At present I cannot find the land I need for a price which provides a high enough profit. I either accept a lower profit and buy now with more risk or wait till the land market cools. At present I am leaning towards buy as I cannot see the market cooling much until 2016 and beyond. It is more risky though as I need established prices to rise or keep their value while under construction until a buyer can be found as the land cost eats into profits. I normally operate of a 25% profit margin, at present I can only get 15-20% which makes funding from banks harder, so I have to put in more cash.

It is far more complex then you could imagine.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Nelson
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newjez
6 Aug 2013, 12:18 AM
Yes - but with rpdata - you can place a safe bet that it won't be double figures tomorrow.
A SAFE BET?????

LOSER !!!!!!!!
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Mike
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newjez
6 Aug 2013, 12:18 AM
Yes - but with rpdata - you can place a safe bet that it won't be double figures tomorrow.

Reiwa has it at a more modest 5%. ABS who knows - out tomorrow I think.

I'm sure the truth is out there.
How do you like this truth http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

Up 11% as per the ABS. So who is right now the ABS and every other data set or Reiwa.

The ABS came in at 3.4% for June quarter, RP data had it at 4.4%. Did you not say that prices would fall from April? I do recall a bet.

The other Perth uberbear Perthite also said prices would fall from April and the market had turned. Opps. Just another prediction they got wrong in a long line of them.

Can some one quote me please so Newjez can read this. :D
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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doubleview
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Mike
6 Aug 2013, 12:36 PM
I have sold (under offer) 1 property. My wife and I have 12 more. With 3 under construction and another to start in the next few months.

I may look to sell one more as the others near completion in spring/summer.

I am realist, when it looks like prices will fall I will look to buy during the bear market. At present I wish land would fall as I want to do another development once these complete. Anyone who has done developments understands how much time and planning is required, so long lead in times. At present I cannot find the land I need for a price which provides a high enough profit. I either accept a lower profit and buy now with more risk or wait till the land market cools. At present I am leaning towards buy as I cannot see the market cooling much until 2016 and beyond. It is more risky though as I need established prices to rise or keep their value while under construction until a buyer can be found as the land cost eats into profits. I normally operate of a 25% profit margin, at present I can only get 15-20% which makes funding from banks harder, so I have to put in more cash.

It is far more complex then you could imagine.
Ok fair enough, you have to put in more cash

1 sold(under offer) +1 potentially to be sold.
3 under construction + 1 potential construction.

that's a better ratio!!

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Mike
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http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/18379110/perth-leads-house-price-revival/


Quote:
 
Perth house prices are climbing at their fastest rate in three years, new figures show, with the Reserve Bank set to make it even easier to buy into the property market.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics today reported that the house price index for Perth climbed by 3.4 per cent in the three months to the end of June, the best performance in the country.

It took the annual growth rate in the index for Perth to 11 per cent.

Nationally, prices were up by 2.4 per cent for the quarter.

Outside Perth the best performed city was Darwin, at 2.9 per cent, while the index was up by 2.7 per cent in Sydney.

The annual performance for Perth dwarfed other cities with the next best Darwin again at 7.1 per cent.

Adelaide, just 0.6 per cent, and Hobart at 1.2 per cent continue to drag the chain.

The figures came ahead of today's Reserve Bank board meeting result.

The Reserve is expected to cut official rates today by a quarter percentage point to a 54-year low of 2.5 per cent. A quarter percentage point reduction would save a person with a $300,000 mortgage about $44 a month.

Meanwhile, the ANZ measure of job advertisements fell by 1.1 per cent in July after a 1.6 per cent drop in June.

Ads have now fallen for five consecutive months to be eight per cent lower than in February.

However, ANZ chief economist Ivan Colhoun said the figures were falling at a slower rate across every State and Territory bar the NT in a sign the market may be stabilising.

http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=894018

Quote:
 
House prices have soared higher than expected, and there's no sign they'll be slowing any time soon - good news for the economy but not so much for home buyers.

Australian capital city house prices rose 2.4 per cent in the June quarter, beating economists' expectations of a 1.0 per cent rise.

The house price index rose 5.1 per cent over the year to June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

According to the latest figures from real estate analyst RP Data, the average house price is $580,000 in Sydney, $512,000 in Melbourne, $425,000 in Brisbane and $500,000 in Perth.

On Tuesday, the RBA cut the cash rate to a new record low of 2.5 per cent, citing below average growth and moderating commodity prices.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said house prices could continue to rise for at least the next year.

'The low cash rate is bringing a lot of people in but as well as that, the fact that the Reserve Bank is maintaining their easing bias is bringing a lot more investors into the market as they look for a return on their investment at higher yields,' Mr Kennedy said.

He said the low interest rates have created a lot of activity in investment housing in the past few months.

'We think the housing sector is going to go quite well in the near term, because of the low interest rates and because investors are looking for a place to put their cash and the logical area for that is the housing market.'

CommSec chief economist Craig James said although the figures only represented prices for houses, not flats, they came in line with other data showing a recovery in the property market.

But supply was yet to catch up with demand, he said.

'There is always a bit of a lag effect - the higher home prices serve as an attraction to investors to move into the market, more freestanding houses and apartments get built, they eventually respond but it can take 12 months for new homes to be built,' Mr James said.

'Over the next 12 to 18 months we would expect to see housing leading the way and driving the economy, taking the baton from the mining sector.'
Edited by Mike, 6 Aug 2013, 08:49 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Sheepdog
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Mike
6 Aug 2013, 12:00 PM

The one thing Perth and Sydney have in common is lower unemployment levels and some of the highest incomes in the nation. Both also have tight supply levels of houses and land. Combined with lower rates that is a powerful combination.
Mike the difference is that Perth is a one-trick-pony when it comes to mining and wage growth.
Should mining take a hit Perth will be hit the hardest whereas Sydney is a service hub and will generally have a better employment rate.
Lower rates in Syd has turned people mad....mad I say. :to:
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Perthite
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Or this one...


http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/08/01/10/56/house-prices-slightly-down-in-perth
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Perthite
6 Aug 2013, 09:53 PM
Fuck you just dont get it.
Perth is up 11% and you still think it is crashing.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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