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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,431 Views)
Strindberg
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Elastic
5 Aug 2013, 06:04 PM
Strindberg, both you and Shadow made it clear that the RPData index lags by about six months.
Do you think it is now a reliable up to date source?
I haven't written anything of the sort. You made that up.

All housing data lags because it is compiled from a period rather than an instant in time. I suspect RP Data is the best and most up to date that we have. Louis Christopher's claim that RP Data is 3 months behind the ABS is poppycock and something he made up to fit a message he was selling. Louis' record on house price data when he was with APM was appalling (eg see here).

I fully believe that Perth house prices, calculated on the latest data available to RP Data today, are 10% higher than Perth house prices calculated on the latest data available to RPData on 5 August 2012. What more do you want? What more can you expect?
Edited by Strindberg, 5 Aug 2013, 06:24 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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newjez
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Strindberg
5 Aug 2013, 05:38 PM
Well, you asked Mike to wait until tomorrow when the ABS figures are published.

When the ABS tomorrow show Perth still rising, ie you were wrong and Mike was right, perhaps you will take your head out of the sand in which you have chosen to bury it.

Or maybe you prefer which ever source is the most bearish and to listen to your brother rather than the ABS in the same way that Veritarse prefers REIWA data in preference to the collective view of APM, RP Data, Residex and the ABS.

Mike, the 600 is the index value, not the house price in dollars. But, yes, RP Data are now showing Perth up 10.04% for the last 12 months. That's typically $50,000. Of course, some might give us a laugh and say they saved that from the difference in the rent and mortgage. It makes total fools of the Perth bears of last year.

RP Data are now also showing Sydney up 6.61% (typically $40k) over the last 12 months and Melbourne up 4.59% (typically $20k) over 12 months.
You ignore Mike - and so 'mini' Mike pops his head up.

Look mate if the ABS show Perth to be increasing at an increasing rate, then obviously I will at best have mistimed the market, and year end may have shown me to be completely wrong. I called it a tipping year, and I stand by that. You do have to give the figures a chance to come in and gel. RP data for perth seems to be a crock. I'm happy with any other index. But RP data for Perth is just too volatile to be of help to anyone.
Strindberg
5 Aug 2013, 06:17 PM
I haven't written anything of the sort. You made that up.

All housing data lags because it is compiled from a period rather than an instant in time. I suspect RP Data is the best and most up to date that we have. Louis Christopher's claim that RP Data is 3 months behind the ABS is poppycock and something he made up to fit a message he was selling. Louis' record on house price data when he was with APM was appalling (eg see here).

I fully believe that Perth house prices, calculated on the latest data available to RP Data today, are 10% higher than Perth house prices calculated on the latest data available to RPData on 5 August 2012. What more do you want? What more can you expect?
So perth house prices went up by 2.5% in the last 2 days. Wey hey!!
Edited by newjez, 5 Aug 2013, 06:27 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Blondie girl
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Spiderman....

TBH
the way you are treating Mike , he has always been polite

You are no bear
You are a bitch
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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herbie
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Veritas
5 Aug 2013, 06:10 PM
Strindberg, perhaps you would care to state whether you believe Mike's uberbullish predictions on Perth property agree with your own?
An honest upfront question deserves an honest upfront answer wouldn't you say Strindberg?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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mango66
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Shadow
31 Jul 2013, 12:07 PM
Actually the figure shown in the RP Data table is the index value, which peaked in 2010 at 596.59, so it hadn't quite passed that point when you made the above post.

However I'm pleased to announce that today the RPData index for Perth hit 596.84, so it has now passed its previous peak to hit a new all-time record high.

House prices in Perth have never been higher than they are today (well, 3-6 months ago really, since the RPData index lags by 3-6 months).

Perth is now up 12% in the past year and a half.

It must be heartbreaking for bears who could have bought a year and a half ago but instead decided to wait for the promised 40% crash.
Wow a whole 12% . That would be guzzled by some wanker RE agent in sales commission if you decided to sell and move and buy elsewhere and that's not including the shitloads of interest the arsehole banks would reap over the timeframe you talk about. What point are you trying to make ?

Interest on repayments at a minimum would be 28K.
Edited by mango66, 5 Aug 2013, 07:37 PM.
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Strindberg
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newjez
5 Aug 2013, 06:24 PM
Look mate if the ABS show Perth to be increasing at an increasing rate, then obviously I will at best have mistimed the market, and year end may have shown me to be completely wrong.
I posted the following on another thread. It's relevant here.

I've noticed this suggestion of slowing growth (incomes, house prices, whatever). It seems to be the new paradigm being pushed by bears. It's a face saving device. There is bugger all bearishness in predicting on going growth, even if the rate of growth slows.

For years we had the prediction of a crash (houses, incomes, whatever). That morphed into the prediction of a slow melt. That's now morphed into a slowing of the rate of growth.

I preferred the old days when bears had commitment and didn't wiggle so much.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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mango66
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Pig Iron
4 Aug 2013, 10:04 PM
the house i'm in now has been rising as well.

wrong. the title is in my name, i own it. the bank only has an interest in it.

honestly your lack of knowledge is pretty bloody embarrassing at times.

this is always a risk. should people hold off doing things throughout their life because there -might- be a better opportunity later? i think that's a foolish way to live...
You don't own it timmy till the last payment is made. There's no argument. Something you own in real terms can not be taken from you. Take a break from paying your mortgage and we will see if you redefine your definition of ownership.
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herbie
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Blondie girl
5 Aug 2013, 06:41 PM
Spiderman....

TBH
the way you are treating Mike , he has always been polite

You are no bear
You are a bitch
Ahhhh - To be Blondie's biatch ... You're just a lucky, lucky chap I reckon Newjez! :D
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Poontang
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Strindberg
5 Aug 2013, 07:24 PM
I posted the following on another thread. It's relevant here.

I've noticed this suggestion of slowing growth (incomes, house prices, whatever). It seems to be the new paradigm being pushed by bears. It's a face saving device. There is bugger all bearishness in predicting on going growth, even if the rate of growth slows.

For years we had the prediction of a crash (houses, incomes, whatever). That morphed into the prediction of a slow melt. That's now morphed into a slowing of the rate of growth.

I preferred the old days when bears had commitment and didn't wiggle so much.
The presumption you are making is that everyone whom is bearish on property believes there will be a huge crash.. 40% to 70% when it is clearly not the case.

The same not everyone whom is bullish on house prices believes they will rise 7% to 10% or more every year forever.

I personally believe that property overall won't crash in Melbourne, I also believe some areas of Melbourne will perform badly and may suffer those 40% falls but the Melbounre average certainly won't.

I think the DOW and ASX are going to suffer quite large falls fairly soon but over the next 3 to 5 years I expect Shares and Precious Metals to outperform the Melbourne property market.

Interest rates are not this low because the country is booming.. Wage rises are slowing this will put the brakes on the rate of house price increases.

There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Mike
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newjez
5 Aug 2013, 06:24 PM
You ignore Mike - and so 'mini' Mike pops his head up.

Look mate if the ABS show Perth to be increasing at an increasing rate, then obviously I will at best have mistimed the market, and year end may have shown me to be completely wrong. I called it a tipping year, and I stand by that. You do have to give the figures a chance to come in and gel. RP data for perth seems to be a crock. I'm happy with any other index. But RP data for Perth is just too volatile to be of help to anyone.

So perth house prices went up by 2.5% in the last 2 days. Wey hey!!
Put me on ignore that is your choice, I have no one on ignore as I like all opinions even if I don't agree with them.

The truth is Newjez made a bet with me in April, he stated on these forums that prices would be down 3 months from that date. What has happened since April is the Perth market has grown by about 8% as per RP data and 5% to 6% by most other indices. For the year most indices are up 6% to 9%.

What has not happened is prices are not down for the year as Newjez said they would be. He has constantly moved the goal posts every time he has been wrong. This is at least the 3rd time he has been wrong over the last year. I guess that is to be expected when your 20,000km away in the UK and have no understanding of local conditions in the market other then Internet data.

Now he is waiting for the ABS stats and the end of this year. He calls this year a tipping year. He is correct, so far 8% to 10% growth depending on the data set. If you wanted price declines the tipping year was 2011, only 2 years late.

Newjez simply wants cheaper housing so he can benefit when he sells in the UK and moves to Perth if that can be believed. I can't blame him for wanting something cheaper, I do as well. I would like cheaper land so I can buy it and do more developments. That is not going to happen at least for a few years that is the reality no matter how much I don't like it.

Newjez has me on ignore as he lost the bet, he knows it and does not want to admit it. Move on.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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