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Perth property sets new all time high.; Bears smashed, again.
Topic Started: 10 Jun 2013, 06:43 PM (52,432 Views)
newjez
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Mike
4 Aug 2013, 11:39 PM
That is 9.37% in the last 12 months. Total growth is now over 13% and climbing.



Really, most indices show prices increasing at faster rates now then last year.

Prices in the March quarter up 4.3%, June Quarter up 4.4% and so far in the September quarter which is not even half way through we are up 3.87%.

So in % prices are rising faster, convert that % into dollars and its even greater as it compounds.

The market is not slowing down at present.
Can you not wait? What's your problem?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Mike
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newjez
5 Aug 2013, 01:33 AM
Can you not wait? What's your problem?
I am waiting for you to admit you got it wrong.

If you wait long enough anything is possible.

I have told you when I think the next bear market will be as I will try to position myself to take advantage of it as well.
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth just smashed through $600,000 now at $600,920 that's up 10.04% in the last 12 months. We are almost to 15% growth since the bottom of the market which is what I predicted.

I said a year ago Perth was headed for 15-25% growth, but I also put the caveat that should interest rates keep falling prices could go higher. My 25% prediction may be to low as this growth is occurring much faster then I thought. I did not think we would hit 15% until early 2014.

Bears better pray the RBA does not drop rates further as Perth will boom to much higher levels with further rate cuts.
Edited by Mike, 5 Aug 2013, 12:40 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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newjez
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Mike
5 Aug 2013, 12:34 PM
I am waiting for you to admit you got it wrong.

If you wait long enough anything is possible.

I have told you when I think the next bear market will be as I will try to position myself to take advantage of it as well.
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth just smashed through $600,000 now at $600,920 that's up 10.04% in the last 12 months. We are almost to 15% growth since the bottom of the market which is what I predicted.

I said a year ago Perth was headed for 15-25% growth, but I also put the caveat that should interest rates keep falling prices could go higher. My 25% prediction may be to low as this growth is occurring much faster then I thought. I did not think we would hit 15% until early 2014.

Bears better pray the RBA does not drop rates further as Perth will boom to much higher levels with further rate cuts.
I meant wait till Tuesday when the ABS results come out you twat.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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annon
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been looking to buy in the western burbs for a while, have been interested in a couple of properties that were marketed 18 months ago at $2m plus - been trying to sell recently at $1.5m and been quietly taken off market after not selling

be keeping my powder dry for a while yet

:oo:
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newjez
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Sorry Mike - had to put you on ignore. You keep barging in on threads rabbiting about the same old agenda regardless of the chain of discussion. It was getting a bit tedious. I may take you off after a bit, but I just need a break from the constant yapping.

Anyway, my brother still says the Perth market is very much on the cool side.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Veritas
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Mike
5 Aug 2013, 12:34 PM
I am waiting for you to admit you got it wrong.

If you wait long enough anything is possible.

I have told you when I think the next bear market will be as I will try to position myself to take advantage of it as well.
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html

Perth just smashed through $600,000 now at $600,920 that's up 10.04% in the last 12 months. We are almost to 15% growth since the bottom of the market which is what I predicted.

I said a year ago Perth was headed for 15-25% growth, but I also put the caveat that should interest rates keep falling prices could go higher. My 25% prediction may be to low as this growth is occurring much faster then I thought. I did not think we would hit 15% until early 2014.

Bears better pray the RBA does not drop rates further as Perth will boom to much higher levels with further rate cuts.
Cool, so buy now and Ill be up 15% by 2015? :tu:
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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newjez
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Veritas
5 Aug 2013, 05:31 PM
Cool, so buy now and Ill be up 15% by 2015? :tu:
Somethings not quite right with those rp data figures. I make that up 2.5% in two days. How can you use an index that varies that widely? It's useless.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Strindberg
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newjez
5 Aug 2013, 05:28 PM
Sorry Mike - had to put you on ignore. You keep barging in on threads rabbiting about the same old agenda regardless of the chain of discussion. It was getting a bit tedious. I may take you off after a bit, but I just need a break from the constant yapping.

Anyway, my brother still says the Perth market is very much on the cool side.
Well, you asked Mike to wait until tomorrow when the ABS figures are published.

When the ABS tomorrow show Perth still rising, ie you were wrong and Mike was right, perhaps you will take your head out of the sand in which you have chosen to bury it.

Or maybe you prefer which ever source is the most bearish and to listen to your brother rather than the ABS in the same way that Veritarse prefers REIWA data in preference to the collective view of APM, RP Data, Residex and the ABS.
Mike
5 Aug 2013, 12:34 PM
Perth just smashed through $600,000 now at $600,920 that's up 10.04% in the last 12 months. We are almost to 15% growth since the bottom of the market which is what I predicted.
Mike, the 600 is the index value, not the house price in dollars. But, yes, RP Data are now showing Perth up 10.04% for the last 12 months. That's typically $50,000. Of course, some might give us a laugh and say they saved that from the difference in the rent and mortgage. It makes total fools of the Perth bears of last year.

RP Data are now also showing Sydney up 6.61% (typically $40k) over the last 12 months and Melbourne up 4.59% (typically $20k) over 12 months.
Edited by Strindberg, 5 Aug 2013, 05:52 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Elastic
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Strindberg, both you and Shadow made it clear that the RPData index lags by about six months.
Do you think it is now a reliable up to date source?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Veritas
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Elastic
5 Aug 2013, 06:04 PM
Strindberg, both you and Shadow made it clear that the RPData index lags by about six months.
Do you think it is now a reliable up to date source?
Strindberg should also admit that he is not, in fact, bullish on Perth and is only giving a fellow member of Team Bull some support.

Strindberg, perhaps you would care to state whether you believe Mike's uberbullish predictions on Perth property agree with your own?

BTW, there is one scenario, I think, under which Mike could be vindicated and its a two speed recession with unemployment rising on the east cost forcing down the cash rate further while the fundamentals in the west remain relatively robust.

In effect, we would have bubble blowing interest rates out west while the eastern states have the rate they need to combat prevailing macro conditions.

I can actually see the RBA classifying that as collateral damage. Who cares? the sandgropers are less than 10% of the population.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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