Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices, and it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation) and as a price-to-rent ratio.
As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation. This is why economists also look at real house prices (inflation adjusted).
Note: If were I "wishcasting" as opposed to "forecasting", I'd like to see real house prices mostly move sideways for a few years. But given the low level of inventory, pent up demand, significant investor buying, and some bounce off the bottom in certain areas - real prices have been increasing fairly rapidly over the last year. I expect more inventory to come on the market and for price increases to slow.
Nominal House Prices
The first graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q1 2013), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through March) in nominal terms as reported.
In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to Q3 2003 levels (and also back up to Q4 2008), and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to December 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to February 2004.
Real House Prices
The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.
In real terms, the National index is back to Q2 2000 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2001, and the CoreLogic index back to March 2001.
In real terms, house prices are back to early '00s levels.
Price-to-Rent
In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.
Here is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.
This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).
On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q2 2000 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to February 2001 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to March 2001.
The benchmark Case-Shiller housing index is partying like it's 2006 — when housing prices peaked
By Peter Weber | May 29, 2013
appy days are here again on Wall Street, and even some corners of Main Street — like the local realtors' office. On Tuesday, the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices was released, showing a 10.9 percent jump in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas between March 2012 and March 2013. That's the biggest increase since April 2006, a few months before housing prices peaked.
Adding to Tuesday's investor optimism, the Conference Board's newest consumer confidence index showed a better-than-forecast jump to 76.2, from 69 in April, suggesting that Americans are feeling more bullish than at any point since February 2008. Even Tiffany & Co. notched surprisingly strong sales for the first quarter of 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average soared 108 points to close at a new record high of 15,411.
Uh oh, says Wolf Richter at Testosterone Pit: "The good old days are back," but for those with short memories, those boom days were "during the last housing bubble, when money grew on trees." Look at where housing prices rose the most — Phoenix: 22.5 percent; San Francisco: 22.2 percent; Las Vegas: 20.6 percent. "I'm already hearing it again": You can't lose money in real estate. For heaven's sake: Even "flipping houses is back in vogue," Richter says:
On NPR, an "economist" said that the housing market was "on fire." And everybody fingers the "tight" inventory — as hundreds of thousands of vacant and for-sale homes have evaporated, and as bidding wars are breaking out over what's left. Or so it seems. But vacant homes don't evaporate. Private-equity funds have poured tens of billions into gobbling up vacant single-family homes in specific markets. And now some of them are planning IPOs as a way of dumping this stuff into funds that unsuspecting worker bees hold in their 401(k)s. It's called an exit, and they have to do it before it blows up in their faces....
Everybody loves bubbles. People either don't remember the wealth destruction and wealth transfers that took place when the last bubble blew up, or they think they, but not others, can get out in time, whether it's through an IPO, a quick stock sale, or a real estate transaction. Governments love bubbles because they generate a flood of tax revenues.... It's an amazing show, with fireworks, suspense, dramatic plot twists, and a rousing score. And we get to watch it over and over again. [Testosterone Pit]
Yes, the rise in housing prices has "already ignited new talk of a housing bubble," says The Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog, but "don't believe it." Sure, some regions have seen prices rise more than 25 percent from their post-bubble lows, but none of the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller index is back to its peak level, as Dan Greenhaus of equity trading firm BTIG points out. "Can home prices again be in a bubble and yet be 27 percent below their previous peak?" Greenhaus asks. "Perhaps, but we don't yet think so."
Look, says Ken Layne at Gawker, "real estate is a good investment as a place to live whenever it costs no more than leasing a comparable house or apartment." But "as soon as it costs more, you're buying in a bubble," and that's clearly true again in places like San Francisco, where the median house price just hit $1 million. New York, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C., are in a similar boat, Layne says.
The only way a million-dollar median home price is sustainable, even in the very short term, is when you have an endless supply of six-figure, two-income earners who are willing to drain their 401(k) accounts and clip coupons just to have a modest house somewhat close to where they work....
We cannot seem to get out of the terrible loop from real estate bust to housing bubble. Playing the residential property market is the one drug addiction that's still socially acceptable. Despite what just happened a few years ago and is still lingering in much of the country, the housing boom is back. [Gawker]
The "housing bubble" talk is clearly back, "but only a few markets are at risk — so far," says Julie Schmit at USA Today. John Burns, the CEO of Burns Real Estate Consulting, notes that median housing prices were 3.2 times the median household income in April, below the 25-year average of 3.25. "There's zero case to be made that we're in a housing bubble," nationwide, Burns tells USA Today, though he acknowledges that San Francisco and Orange County, Calif., are "starting to look bubble-ish."
Real estate website Trulia agrees that some markets are now "overvalued" relative to fundamentals says USA Today's Schmit, but nationwide home prices are 7 percent undervalued. According to Trulia, "that makes today's price gains a rebound, not a new bubble," and the rebound seems healthy on the whole.
The pace of home price gains is expected to slow as more inventory becomes available, mortgage interest rates rise, and investor buyers slow down purchases, says Jed Kolko, Trulia's chief economist. Today's low mortgage interest rates and tight supply of homes for sale are "creating a kind of witch's brew of extreme price spikes," says Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. [USA Today]
On average, so far "we've rebounded to mid-2003 housing prices," says Matthew Yglesias at Slate. But here's the big takeaway from the new housing data: It "illustrates how problematic the idea of 'calling' a bubble is."
I know plenty of people who "called" the bubble in 2004, then looked silly for a couple of years, then looked super-smart as prices crashed for a few years, but who now look... I dunno. Prices have fallen only very slightly since that time and they're back on the rise. It could be that this is a bull trap and there'll be a whole secondary housing price collapse that brings us back down to 1990s levels. Or prices could rise a bit more and stabilize at 2004 levels. Financial markets are simply very hard to predict. Relative to rents, houses still look cheap in most markets, and that situation seems unlikely to persist. But whether that means rents will fall or housing prices will rise is very difficult to know. [Slate]
Dean Baker The Exchange (Yahoo! Finance), May 29, 2013
Recent data showing house prices rising at their fastest rate since the collapse of the bubble have many people asking whether we are seeing another bubble. That is a good question.
At the national level the answer would almost certainly be no. Different indexes show slightly different stories, but inflation adjusted house prices nationwide are still down by roughly a third from their bubble peaks. This means that house prices may be slightly above their long-term trend level, but close enough that no one could say they are out of line with the fundamentals of the housing market. That doesn’t mean that there can’t be a dip, but there is no reason to expect another plunge like the 2007-2009 collapse that threw us into recession.
While house prices nationally may not be out of line with fundamentals, there are serious grounds for concern in many local markets. House prices have been rising at an extraordinary pace in many markets and may soon be hitting levels that are clearly unsustainable.
The fastest rate of price increases can be found in many of the former bubble markets. Cities like Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada are seeing very rapid rates of price increase, as are many of the cities of central valley in California. Prices in many of these cities have risen by more than 20 percent over the last year.
Furthermore the most rapid price increases are occurring at the lower end of the market. In Las Vegas the price of homes in the bottom third of the market have risen by more than 40 percent over the last year. In the last three months they have increased at almost a 70 percent annual rate.
There is a similar story in Phoenix where prices for homes in the bottom third of the market rose by just under 40 percent over the last year and have risen at just under a 50 percent annual rate over the last three months. Many neighborhoods in cities like Modesto or Vallejo are experiencing the same sort of run-ups in price.
These markets were all badly beaten up in the crash with prices falling back to levels not seen since the mid-90s. As a result, current prices in these markets are not obviously out of line with fundamentals.
However the concern is if these rates of increase continue. If a market is properly priced today, but follows the same path as the bottom tier of the Phoenix market and rises 50 percent over the next year, then it will be seriously over-valued in another year. Even worse, if one of these markets were to sustain the 70 percent rate of increase recently seen in the bottom tier of the Las Vegas market over the next year, then we could be looking at a market that is 70 percent over-valued.
Investors are driving prices in the markets seeing the rapid run-ups. In many cases, hedge funds and private equity investors are buying up large blocks of houses. Some may plan to rent them out for a period of time, but most undoubtedly expect to flip them for substantial profits in the near future. Similarly, many smaller investors are buying up homes, doing minor repairs, and then looking to resell them for a substantial profit a few months later, just as they did in the bubble days.
The problem with these investor purchased homes is that the process only makes sense as long as prices continue to rise. There are no great windfalls for people buying homes and flipping them in a stagnant housing market.
If the hedge funds and flippers end up taking a hit when the music stops no one could be too upset. Presumably they understood the risks when they got into the market.
The real problem is that many ordinary homeowners may get caught in the middle just as they did in the last bubble. If these markets go into bubble territory and then prices fall back by 20-30 percent new homebuyers will have seen their equity disappear and find themselves underwater, just as happened in 2008-2010.
While people have to make up their own minds on whether homeownership makes sense for them, it would be good if the government and non-profit sector made the push against homeownership this time if these markets go back into bubble territory. There are many advantages to homeownership, but that’s not the case when it comes to buying a home in a bubble market. No one builds assets by paying 30 percent too much for a house.
Many low and moderate income people saw their dreams destroyed when the last bubble collapsed. It would be too cruel to see the same mistake repeated just a few years later.
The housing and automobile industries are the main driving forces of the economy – in both directions. That makes sense since consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy, and homes and cars are the biggest ticket items consumers spend money on. More importantly, unlike most purchases, it’s not just spending the money they made last week, but through loans and mortgages it’s spending in advance money they will earn for the next five to thirty years.
That housing and autos therefore continue to be the economy’s main driving forces was dramatically demonstrated when both home and auto sales were so instrumental in driving the economy and markets higher after the 2000-2002 meltdown. And then when the resulting real estate bubble burst in 2006, housing and autos led the way down into the sub-prime mortgage catastrophe and then the meltdown into the 2008-2009 Great Recession.
Their powerful influence continued when in 2008 and early 2009 $trillions were spent, mostly on the bailout of banks and the rest of the financial sector, but the economy didn’t begin recuperating to any noticeable degree until the housing industry and automakers began their substantial recovery.
And they have indeed experienced a substantial recovery.
While the auto industry in Europe continues in recession (auto sales down 8.2% last year to the lowest level in 18 years), by 2012 U.S. automakers had jumped from reverse gear all the way into 4th gear, posting their highest annual sales since 2007, with the pace of sales continuing so far this year (although automakers missed the forecasts for their sales growth in July).
Meanwhile, for close to two years the real estate sector has been blasting through the most optimistic forecasts for its recovery.
At the end of May new housing starts were up a huge 28.1% year-to-date. Existing home sales had increased 15.2% over the previous 12 months. Home prices have shot up 12.2% nationally over the last 12 months, the biggest year-over-year jump since March, 2006 (near the peak of the housing bubble). Prices were up more than 20% in some of the trouble spots of the last housing bubble like Florida, California, and Las Vegas. It’s been hot. The National Association of Realtors reported two weeks ago that 47% of all homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month. As in the big bubble of 5005-2006, multiple bids and selling prices higher than asking prices have been fairly common.
However, there have been some troubling signs in the recovery, easily ignored because the basic numbers of sales and prices have been so impressive.
For instance, it’s no secret that the recovery has been mostly driven by institutional investors building inventories of rental properties. For them it’s all about profit. So far they’ve been able to take advantage of low interest rates and depressed home prices. But as prices rise and that opportunity fades away there are already indications they are dialing back on adding more homes to their inventory. Speculators looking for quick profits by buying at the distressed prices and flipping for a quick profit have also been significant factors in the sales numbers. RealtyTrac reports that single family home flips, where a home is purchased and sold again within six months, were up 19% in the first half of this year, and up 74% from the first half of 2011. But RealtyTrac expects that interest to also fade as bargain prices disappear, and is already seeing ‘buying to flip’ tapering off in many markets.
A sustainable housing recovery has always needed real home buyers who intend to live in the homes, and particularly a healthy percentage of first-time home buyers. We haven’t been seeing that, and we’re not liable to any time soon with the higher home prices and higher mortgage rates raising monthly mortgage payments significantly.
Meanwhile, even much of the reported increases in new home construction have been for multi-family housing for renters. As of June 30, single-unit housing starts were 67.6% below their January, 2006 pre-recession level.
And now we’re seeing the first indications of the mini-bubble potentially beginning to deflate.
New housing starts plunged 9.9% in June, to their lowest level in 10 months. Permits for future starts fell 7.5%. Existing home sales declined 1.2% versus the consensus forecast for a 1.5% increase. Pending Home Sales fell 0.4% in June. Construction Spending unexpectedly fell 0.6% in June, well below the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.5% (and the largest monthly decline in five months). And these reports are mostly from housing activity in the period prior to the spike in mortgage rates of the last six weeks.
The real estate sector led the way down into the financial meltdown and 2007-2009 bear market. It turned back up in early 2009 precisely at the bear market low even though housing sales and prices were still tumbling.
With the housing recovery potentially stumbling again investors would do well to keep an eye on the SPDR Home-Builder etf, symbol XHB, and home builder stocks like Toll Brothers (TOL), DR Horton (DHI), Pulte Corp (PHM), and Lennar Corp (LEN).
The Home Builder etf XHB was down more than 12% in May and June, but has been recovering some but lagging well behind the overall stock market’s spike to new highs.
US dwelling values rose too fast in the past twelve months for my tastes and it is making some folks nervous. On the upside, house prices are easing off a bit now, or at least slowing up. That said, if you want a house you still need to be faster than you were 12 months ago. The reasons as I understand it are:
1: Interest rates have gone up, whilst by Aussie standards they still get a great deal, it is what you are used to so folks there are nervous. In short, folks get less for the same dollars. In some ways this is also driving demand – some folks are worried it will go up more and they will miss out.
2: There just isn’t the available credit there was. Most lenders are frisking their potential customers very well. Hard money loans are available but the interest rates are sharp (12%-16% is not uncommon – ouch!). A lot of folks have good jobs, but cannot get credit. Although this is gradually easing up over time.
3: There is a ton of supply coming up the pipe. Houses and apartments are certainly under construction in the area.
4: There is still a vast amount of cheap and vacant land.
I can imagine some more upside but I would prefer to see slower capital growth myself.
A five-bedroom house in Las Vegas sold in mid-July for $499,000, double the price it went for three months ago. In Phoenix, a similar house sold this month for $600,000, gaining $273,000 since March.
Bubbles are inflating in Nevada and Arizona even as housing in the rest of the country recovers at a more sustainable pace. Gains in the two desert cities are the biggest since the height of the real estate boom, just before their plunge to the bottom of the national housing collapse. This year, Las Vegas and Phoenix have topped the nation in price increases, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller property-value index.
“They’re clearly in bubbles,” said Karl Case, one of the creators of the index. “What can go up can go down -- real quick.”
In May, Phoenix prices jumped 21 percent and in Las Vegas, they rose 23 percent from a year earlier. Nationally, home prices were up 12 percent from a year ago, the most since the beginning of 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 cities.
Price gyrations in Phoenix and Las Vegas aren’t likely to spread and probably don’t signal another national calamity, said Daren Blomquist, vice president of data firm RealtyTrac.
“The markets where you see wild swings in prices are destination spots, warm places where people want to vacation, like Las Vegas and Phoenix,” Blomquist said. “The rest of the country likely will continue to do well, regardless of what happens in those cities.”
Regional Cycles
There have been regional boom-and-bust cycles before, with home prices in Boston falling 17 percent in a more than four-year decline ending in 1992, and California values plunged 27 percent in six years before bottoming in 1996.
The bust that began in mid-2006 cut 62 percent in the value of Las Vegas homes and 56 percent in Phoenix.
Private-equity firms, hedge funds and real estate investment trusts buying distressed houses to rent have helped push up values in cities hard hit by the housing crash, including Phoenix and Las Vegas. They’ve raised at least $18 billion and bought more than 100,000 properties since 2011.
In Las Vegas, cash deals made up 60 percent of all transactions in June, according to research firm DataQuick Information Systems Inc.
The bust that began in mid-2006 cut 62 percent in the value of Las Vegas homes and 56 percent in Phoenix.
“The bigger they gained, the harder they fell,” said David Blitzer, managing director at Standard & Poor’s Financial Services.
Backyard Waterfall
The Las Vegas property that doubled its value in three months is a 3,600-square-foot house with five bedrooms and a three-car garage, plus a pool and waterfall in the backyard. It sits on a half-acre lot about 12 miles north of the casinos on Las Vegas Boulevard, known as the Strip.
In Arizona, the 2,800-square-foot house that gained 84 percent in three months has four bedrooms, a pool, and an acre of land north of the city. In both examples, the recent sales information is from RealtyTrac and prior prices are from deeds and assessment records. Both properties were bought and resold by investors.
President Barack Obama, who took office in the midst of the financial crisis brought on by the collapse of the housing market, has warned at least four times this month about what he called “artificial bubbles.”
Obama’s Concern
“We have to turn the page on the bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess,” he said in his Aug. 10 weekly radio address.
The real estate markets in Las Vegas and Phoenix are being driven by a shortage of homes, for entirely different reasons. In Phoenix, the dearth of properties is caused by the breakneck pace of foreclosure completions. The inventory of homes in foreclosure in Phoenix dropped 64 percent in May from a year earlier, the fastest pace in the nation, according to Irvine, California-based CoreLogic Inc.
In Las Vegas, new consumer protection laws have slowed the pace of repossessions.
A Nevada law passed in 2011 following revelations of foreclosure abuses the previous year requires lenders to prove they have the right to foreclose. Assembly Bill 284 threatens criminal penalties for non-compliance. In the months after it passed, foreclosures ground to a near halt, according to RealtyTrac. The ensuing price spike became known as the 284 bubble.
“Shortages push prices up, and once that happens everyone rushes into the market,” Blitzer said.
Changing Laws
In May, Nevada legislators scrambled to reverse a key provision of the law. An amendment effective June 1 makes it easier to seize houses by stipulating banks can use affidavits based on a review of their internal records. Still, lenders are moving slowly because they are wary of the shifting legal landscape, RealtyTrac’s Blomquist said.
“Banks don’t like uncertainty,” he said. “The changing laws have muddied the water for banks trying to pursue foreclosures.”
In Las Vegas more than half of properties with mortgages are underwater, or worth less than the loans against them, according to Zillow Inc., a real estate data firm. In Phoenix, the share is a third. Nationally, about a quarter of mortgages have negative equity.
To sell a home, owners have to be able to pay off the mortgage, whether from the proceeds of the home sale or with cash. Someone who got a $350,000 mortgage in Phoenix or Las Vegas in 2006 probably is now more than $150,000 underwater, despite the surge in prices.
Land Prices
Those stuck owners give builders the opportunity to gear up to meet demand -- at a cost. The average price of an acre of land is $400,000 this month, according to Dennis Smith, CEO of Home Builders Research in Las Vegas. The same parcel would have gone for $200,000 in December, he said.
“The builders said last year that there’s no way they would pay more than $200,000 an acre for land,” he said. “Now, they’re saying there’s no way they’ll pay more than $400,000.”
Labor costs also are rising as the building boom gives workers the opportunity to demand higher pay, Smith said. All of that is passed on to customers, he said.
“The higher that land prices and building costs go, the higher prices will be a year from now,” Smith said.
Permits Gain
Single-family building permits in Nevada rose in May to the highest point since early 2008. In Arizona, permits reached a five-year peak in June, according to Commerce Department data.
In the rest of the U.S., banks are stepping up efforts to reclaim homes and the improving economy is trimming the number of newly delinquent loans as the housing recovery passes the halfway point of its second year. Nationally, there were 2.2 million homes for sale in June, up from 1.8 million in January, a sign the U.S. price gains may slow to a sustainable pace.
That’s not the case for the desert cities. The market in Las Vegas is booming at a speed that can’t be sustained, Smith said.
“I don’t use the word bubble because that implies it’s going to burst and never come back,” he said. “I don’t see a crash. I see a slowdown. That’s what better happen, or we’ll be seeing a bunch of tumbleweeds blowing through town.”
Interesting commentary here from Robert Shiller who appeared on CNBC this morning following the release of his home price index. The index showed a 12% year over year increase. Although Professor Shiller said the housing market was recovering, he also said that none of it appears real. He added that the market appears very speculative at present. He said:
“Housing goes through big cycles. Take California for example. It’s been up and down, up and down for a decade and it doesn’t go anywhere. It’s just a rollercoaster. That’s the way these markets have become. So, for a long-term buyer, the fact that they’re going up now doesn’t mean a whole lot.”
I can confirm this. I keep a pretty close eye on real estate here in San Diego which was the epicenter of the bubble and the market here is crazy speculative. I am seeing tons of listings above their bubble highs and lots of flippers coming back into the market. Things are feeling very frothy. I definitely wouldn’t say it’s a bubble, but the current trend is unsustainable. At least here in Southern California….
In August 2012, when isolating one of the various reasons for the latest housing bubble, we suggested that a primary catalyst for the price surge in the ultra-luxury housing segment and the seemingly endless supply of "all cash" buyers (standing at an unprecedented 60% of all buyers lately as reported by Goldman) is a very simple one: crime. Or rather, the use of US real estate as a means to launder illegal offshore-procured money. We also identified the one key permissive feature which allowed this: the National Association of Realtors' exemption from Anti-Money Laundering provisions. In other words, all a foreign oligarch - who may or may not have used chemical weapons in their past: all depends on how recently they took their picture with the Secretary of State - had to do to buy a $47 million Florida house, was to get the actual cash to the US. Well good thing there are private jets whose cargo is never checked.
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