Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Tweet Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,685 Views)
Amusing, the amount of hysteria involved around the Gold price.
The only problem most of the pundits here don't realise what these falls are saying.
A slew of poor economic data, coupled with the new bail-in template for dealing with bank insolvency, has the markets back to pricing either one of two outcomes.
firstly Deflation takes hold or
real interest rates move strongly positive.
The fact that under either of these scenarios property bulls get slaughtered, is a point that seems to be missed.
The garden variety goldbug, with cash, gold, silver and low or no debt. Is still strongly positioned for this outcome.
As for me I will be buying a couple of mint sealed 600oz boxes of 2013 silver pandas if they hit 12k.
Enjoy The Ride!
The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.” ― Friedrich A. von Hayek
"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.
The only problem most of the pundits here don't realise what these falls are saying.
The fact that under either of these scenarios property bulls get slaughtered, is a point that seems to be missed.
Right, so when the gold price was rising the goldbugs said this was a sign of an impending economic collapse that would slaughter property.
Now that the gold price is falling, that also means slaughter for property.
But it's funny the way property never actually does get slaughtered, despite the hopes and dreams of the property bears.
House prices just continue their slow march upwards, with the occasional minor correction every few years - just part of the cycle.
Meanwhile gold and shares are up and down like a yo-yo.
But I'm sure the property slaughter must be coming up soon... only a matter of time? The great 'Ponzi scheme' won't be able to 'defy gravity' indefinitely, right...
Shadow-commodity prices are tanking. China data missing on retail sales, GDP, and industrial production last week. Coupled with the US miss on retail sales.
Add unemployment on the uptick here is bullish property, because Stevens will cut again, although were getting close to that mathematical problem of Zero.
Or the commodity boom including PM's will continue and the asiatic growth will fuel house price growth.
Which scenario do you subscribe?
Enjoy The Ride!
The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.” ― Friedrich A. von Hayek
"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.
Amusing, the amount of hysteria involved around the Gold price.
The only problem most of the pundits here don't realise what these falls are saying.
A slew of poor economic data, coupled with the new bail-in template for dealing with bank insolvency, has the markets back to pricing either one of two outcomes.
firstly Deflation takes hold or
real interest rates move strongly positive.
The fact that under either of these scenarios property bulls get slaughtered, is a point that seems to be missed.
The garden variety goldbug, with cash, gold, silver and low or no debt. Is still strongly positioned for this outcome.
As for me I will be buying a couple of mint sealed 600oz boxes of 2013 silver pandas if they hit 12k.
No - the fall in gold is suggesting the hyperinflation expectations of the nut jobs (schiff, faber etc) are proving to be wrong. Hyperinflation was very unlikely because central banks were not "money printing" in terms of broad money - and market participants are finally getting the joke. So the gold price probably reflects the decline of the theories spewed out by the austrians and other lunatics.
I subscribe to the view that house prices will just keep on rising in line with income growth over the medium-long term, as has been the case for the past 60+ years (apart from a brief period in the late 90s to early 2000s where prices rose faster than incomes. Australian house prices will just keep on doing this regardless of the price of gold or the general global gloom-mongering about the imminent collapse of the USA, China, Europe or whatever country happens to be in vogue for an imminent collapse at any particular time.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy