Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Tweet Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,686 Views)
Neither actually. I'd wait a bit myself to be sure the bottom is in before buying. Gold could go a lot lower, could go 50% down from the peak. That would be gold just south of $1000/oz. Silver could go further, right now it's at 50% below it's peak and in bad economic times silver languishes.
The problem with all the idiots here is that they are locked into the "instant gains" mindset that modern inflationary economists have taught. They only look 2, 3, 4 years out. They buy houses and fully expect to retire on the proceeds of them 30 years hence but get caught up in the day to day hedonic price adjustments? Why keep crying for booms and searching for every little scrap of evidence that prices are going up? Why say we can't have 30% or 50% falls if they truly believe it all we good in 30 years time. If you bought at the right time you shouldn't care. Of course if you bought at a bubble top, like gold in 1980, then you are screwed for decades.
As for selling at this point in time, well that would be stupid for a number of reasons. Gold is money and I am just saving money for the future, plain and simple so why sell during a steep pullback? This isn't internet stocks where everyone on the planet is "All In". No one owns real physical gold, just look around the forum, I'm the only one, lol lol.
Gold has a 5000 year track record of holding its value and moving up with inflation. Just beause a few self-important money printers and banking insiders come along at the end of an empires reign and tell me it's worthless doesn't change that. The housebugs assume I am trying to make a big profit and retire rich but I am already well off by Australian standards and don't feel the need drive a maserati like the 2-bob millionares who went bust in the GFC. Nor do I see the need to buy any more gold or silver, I probably bought more than was prudent over the past 5 years, but then again, there were certainly worse places to leave the cash.
Ok - you don't buy or sell at the moment.
Perhaps you could answer another question. What is Gold's current fair value (in USD terms), and how do you derive it?
Or to put it another way, if Gold really does track inflation, from what base will it track inflation from here (April 15 2013). From US$400 per oz? US$1400 per oz. US$2000 per oz? Or some other number?
the lowest point for silver that week was $28.5USD/oz.
O that bit, I forgot about that. I also bought a little platinum at about $1600 which is probably underwater now too, but how important is it timmy? It's not like I had to go to a banker and hock my house to get it like you fools did. Let the price fall, I'm not paying interest on a loan.
Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan
A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
Perhaps you could answer another question. What is Gold's current fair value (in USD terms), and how do you derive it?
Or to put it another way, if Gold really does track inflation, from what base will it track inflation from here (April 15 2013). From US$400 per oz? US$1400 per oz. US$2000 per oz? Or some other number?
Catweasel laugh.
It also a wonder how it a derive a fair the value of a F the MG.
If a deflation the new normal, does it mean everything go the down, include a mouse house the price?
Neither actually. I'd wait a bit myself to be sure the bottom is in before buying. Gold could go a lot lower, could go 50% down from the peak. That would be gold just south of $1000/oz. Silver could go further, right now it's at 50% below it's peak and in bad economic times silver languishes.
The problem with all the idiots here is that they are locked into the "instant gains" mindset that modern inflationary economists have taught. They only look 2, 3, 4 years out. They buy houses and fully expect to retire on the proceeds of them 30 years hence but get caught up in the day to day hedonic price adjustments? Why keep crying for booms and searching for every little scrap of evidence that prices are going up? Why say we can't have 30% or 50% falls if they truly believe it all we good in 30 years time. If you bought at the right time you shouldn't care. Of course if you bought at a bubble top, like gold in 1980, then you are screwed for decades.
As for selling at this point in time, well that would be stupid for a number of reasons. Gold is money and I am just saving money for the future, plain and simple so why sell during a steep pullback? This isn't internet stocks where everyone on the planet is "All In". No one owns real physical gold, just look around the forum, I'm the only one, lol lol.
Gold has a 5000 year track record of holding its value and moving up with inflation. Just beause a few self-important money printers and banking insiders come along at the end of an empires reign and tell me it's worthless doesn't change that. The housebugs assume I am trying to make a big profit and retire rich but I am already well off by Australian standards and don't feel the need drive a maserati like the 2-bob millionares who went bust in the GFC. Nor do I see the need to buy any more gold or silver, I probably bought more than was prudent over the past 5 years, but then again, there were certainly worse places to leave the cash.
Ok - you don't buy or sell at the moment.
Perhaps you could answer another question. What is Gold's current fair value (in USD terms), and how do you derive it?
What's fair value? 99% of the gold traded on the planet is paper contracts denominated in US dollars most likely. It's a big casino. Then there are the gold derivatives of course. Fair value for gold has always been what it could buy and the oft used measure, as simplistic as it may seem, is a hand made toga, leather sandles and a leather belt, or in modern times, a good quality suit (Not Rodger David) a pair of quality leather shoes and a belt and tie. At present that will probably cost you around $1500 give or take but with the retail economy the way it is in Australia I am sure you could offer the tailor $1300 cash and he would be happy to take it.
Gold values itself it seems and I assume this has had to do with the cost of producing it. The US fixed the price at $35 for many years but had to give this control up eventually because gold on the free market had begun trading much higher. They created a coiled spring that unwound in the 1970's.
I haven't a clue what it is worth today but I know it's worth a lot more than the $500/oz it was when I started buying it and if it ever got that low again I would probably buy some more.
Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan
A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
Neither actually. I'd wait a bit myself to be sure the bottom is in before buying. Gold could go a lot lower, could go 50% down from the peak. That would be gold just south of $1000/oz. Silver could go further, right now it's at 50% below it's peak and in bad economic times silver languishes.
The problem with all the idiots here is that they are locked into the "instant gains" mindset that modern inflationary economists have taught. They only look 2, 3, 4 years out. They buy houses and fully expect to retire on the proceeds of them 30 years hence but get caught up in the day to day hedonic price adjustments? Why keep crying for booms and searching for every little scrap of evidence that prices are going up? Why say we can't have 30% or 50% falls if they truly believe it all we good in 30 years time. If you bought at the right time you shouldn't care. Of course if you bought at a bubble top, like gold in 1980, then you are screwed for decades.
As for selling at this point in time, well that would be stupid for a number of reasons. Gold is money and I am just saving money for the future, plain and simple so why sell during a steep pullback? This isn't internet stocks where everyone on the planet is "All In". No one owns real physical gold, just look around the forum, I'm the only one, lol lol.
Gold has a 5000 year track record of holding its value and moving up with inflation. Just beause a few self-important money printers and banking insiders come along at the end of an empires reign and tell me it's worthless doesn't change that. The housebugs assume I am trying to make a big profit and retire rich but I am already well off by Australian standards and don't feel the need drive a maserati like the 2-bob millionares who went bust in the GFC. Nor do I see the need to buy any more gold or silver, I probably bought more than was prudent over the past 5 years, but then again, there were certainly worse places to leave the cash.
Ok - you don't buy or sell at the moment.
Perhaps you could answer another question. What is Gold's current fair value (in USD terms), and how do you derive it?
What's fair value? 99% of the gold traded on the planet is paper contracts denominated in US dollars most likely. It's a big casino. Then there are the gold derivatives of course. Fair value for gold has always been what it could buy and the oft used measure, as simplistic as it may seem, is a hand made toga, leather sandles and a leather belt, or in modern times, a good quality suit (Not Rodger David) a pair of quality leather shoes and a belt and tie. At present that will probably cost you around $1500 give or take but with the retail economy the way it is in Australia I am sure you could offer the tailor $1300 cash and he would be happy to take it.
Gold values itself it seems and I assume this has had to do with the cost of producing it. The US fixed the price at $35 for many years but had to give this control up eventually because gold on the free market had begun trading much higher. They created a coiled spring that unwound in the 1970's.
I haven't a clue what it is worth today but I know it's worth a lot more than the $500/oz it was when I started buying it and if it ever got that low again I would probably buy some more.
the lowest point for silver that week was $28.5USD/oz.
O that bit, I forgot about that. I also bought a little platinum at about $1600 which is probably underwater now too, but how important is it timmy? It's not like I had to go to a banker and hock my house to get it like you fools did. Let the price fall, I'm not paying interest on a loan.
It is ironic that some bears while preaching about a so called property bubble, missed the largest bubble in the last 5 years, GOLD. Gold over a longer peroid is going to go south much lower then $1000.
While you hang on to your deflating assets that offer no yield, I will keep my rising assets which pay a weekly yield and any loses incured are tax deductible.
Gold was a good buy over the last 5 years, but its run has come to an end. If you have not sold out of gold you are going to be burnt hard. Gold has been propped up by a once in 80-90 year world wide economic disaster. You will need a similar event or larger for Gold to rally and get close to previous peaks or it could continue to fall in value until the next economic disaster in 80-100 years. Thats what I call a risky move, it is not based on strong fundementals.
Silver I can see rising in value over the next 5 years, so hold onto that and if it falls low enough buy more, but plenty of better options to make money then metals.
It is ironic that some bears while preaching about a so called property bubble, missed the largest bubble in the last 5 years, GOLD. Gold over a longer peroid is going to go south much lower then $1000.
While you hang on to your deflating assets that offer no yield, I will keep my rising assets which pay a weekly yield and any loses incured are tax deductible.
Gold was a good buy over the last 5 years, but its run has come to an end. If you have not sold out of gold you are going to be burnt hard. Gold has been propped up by a once in 80-90 year world wide economic disaster. You will need a similar event or larger for Gold to rally and get close to previous peaks or it could continue to fall in value until the next economic disaster in 80-100 years. Thats what I call a risky move, it is not based on strong fundementals.
Silver I can see rising in value over the next 5 years, so hold onto that and if it falls low enough buy more, but plenty of better options to make money then metals.
Mike,
Your posts are good.
But you dont have to remind us how big your cock is in every post
analysis less the Harry enfield routine will do fine.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
O that bit, I forgot about that. I also bought a little platinum at about $1600 which is probably underwater now too, but how important is it timmy? It's not like I had to go to a banker and hock my house to get it like you fools did. Let the price fall, I'm not paying interest on a loan.
you know the gold bugs are at their wits end when they start telling you falling prices don't matter
you also point out, through your own stupidity, one of the greatest advantages of property vs gold - it's not your own money you are riskng.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
you also point out, through your own stupidity, one of the greatest advantages of property vs gold - it's not your own money you are riskng.
O, so no property speculator here signed their PPOR over as collateral for their IP's? The idiot meter needle is up again timmy, because you are wrong, again, as always, because nearly "every" housebug here did exactly that.
Mike
15 Apr 2013, 07:23 PM
Gold was a good buy over the last 5 years, but its run has come to an end.
Mike, mike mike, you couldn't even spell gold a couple of years ago and now you are an expert on it and have called the generational top? Let me guess, you read a few stories in the SMH about the gold bubble has popped right?
Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan
A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
O that bit, I forgot about that. I also bought a little platinum at about $1600 which is probably underwater now too, but how important is it timmy? It's not like I had to go to a banker and hock my house to get it like you fools did.
Where is crazy Dave/Ted/Danno when you need him? We need him to come and share his crazy idea with all the gold bugs here.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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