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Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,656 Views)
herbie
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peter fraser
2 Oct 2013, 12:52 AM
Yes but let's not tell them.
Yep, good decision - The lower it falls the better the buying opportunity Kris reckons. Leave 'em in peace to fully enjoy all their opportunities hey? :re:

But in all seriousness, USD 1,280 was supposed to be important. We're starting to see that tested tonight.

Ni nites for me - Will see what the Oz (later) AM brings ...
Edited by herbie, 2 Oct 2013, 02:16 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Gold forecast to reach $1,400 level

By Neil Hume in Rome and Martin Sandbu in London

Gold prices will stabilise after this year’s sharp drop and reach more than $1,400 a troy ounce in 2014, according to a closely watched survey of industry forecasts by the London Bullion Market Association.

The results of the annual survey from around two dozen of the world’s largest bullion dealing banks and trading houses show many analysts and investors view this year’s decline as a correction rather than the start of a bear market.

The forecast came as gold tumbled to a two-month low on Tuesday, and led other precious and industrial metals prices lower, as US traders reacted to the federal government shutdown.

Thin demand in China, due to a public holiday, also held back metals prices.

The gold spot price dropped more than 3 per cent to its intraday low of $1,283.54, a level not seen since early August, before stabilising near $1,287 a troy ounce, down 2.9 per cent on the day.

Gold has fallen 23 per cent in 2013, putting the precious metal on course for its first decline since 2000. Expectations of a shift in US monetary policy and reduced demand for safe investments triggered a rush out of gold by institutional investors.

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme has been a significant driver of higher gold prices because it has stoked fears of inflation, while lower interest rates reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Combined gold holdings in exchange traded funds dropped by almost 692 tonnes, down 25 per cent from a record high of almost 2,700 tonnes at the start of the year, according to Citigroup.

However, the price has rallied from its June low of $1,180, helped by a large increase in physical demand, particularly from consumers in China and India. The decision by the Fed not to begin tapering its emergency asset purchases in September provided further support for the price.

Most investment banks believe gold will struggle to make progress in 2014, arguing that the Fed will taper and that China is now well stocked with gold, although recent official figures showed demand remained strong in August.

Tuesday’s fall in gold weighed on other precious metals, leaving silver nursing losses of 4.2 per cent at $20.75 per ounce, while platinum fell 1.8 per cent to $1,373.49.

The shutdown and the economic uncertainty it creates had previously been seen by some analysts as positive for gold.

Several market participants independently suggested the sell-off was related to rumours of at least two big funds looking to reduce their gold investments.

“There was market chatter of a major US fund rebalancing out of gold,” said Howard Wen, a precious metals analyst with HSBC in New York.

Metals prices had been weathering the news from Washington well in European morning trading, but prices started sliding when US participants entered the market.

Copper and zinc for three-month delivery at the London Metal Exchange both fell by 1.7 per cent, while aluminium fell 1.6 per cent during early New York trade, before all three recovered slightly.

Other industrial metals exhibited similar if less pronounced patterns.

“The market was surprisingly steady overnight, considering the argument for the fall today has been the US shutdown, which was known during the Asian day,” said Steven Spencer of Traderight, a London metals broker.

Standard Bank’s Leon Westgate said: “The US came in and decided they really didn’t like commodities and sold everything, the shutdown being negative for [industrial] commodity demand.”

Analysts warned the market reaction to the shutdown may only be a preamble to the bigger Washington showdown on the horizon. By October 17, Congress must lift the legal ceiling on government debt or risk the US defaulting on its obligations.

That risk is negative for industrial metals but could support gold as a haven asset. “The shutdown is kind of a distraction, the real issue is the debt ceiling,” Mr Westgate said. “If Democrats and Republicans are so far apart. . . that doesn’t bode well for debt ceiling negotiations.”

Read more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac25e156-2aaf-11e3-ade3-00144feab7de.html#axzz2gVbe64K4[/quote]
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Nelson
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MMM
26 Sep 2013, 07:48 PM
As for gold ,I expect it will have a good climb from now ...........
HA-HA
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Sydneyite
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goldbug
2 Oct 2013, 12:44 AM
Well if gold fails as a store of wealth and becomes worthless it will be the first time in 5000 years of recorded history. On the other hand, every single paper promise of wealth ever created has eventually reverted to it's intrinsic value of ZERO. Now that the promises are digital they can be wiped out in a nano second.
What a load of bullshit! Gold SUCKED as a store of value for 20 years from about 1980 through to 2000! Anyone who held through that period lost a huge amount of purchasing power.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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herbie
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The Asians are waking up - Not especially liking the North American overnight action it seems? - And the goldfinger is pointing down again ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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MMM
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Nelson
2 Oct 2013, 09:50 AM
MMM
26 Sep 2013, 07:48 PM
As for gold ,I expect it will have a good climb from now ...........
HA-HA
There are plenty of opportunaty to be had in gold , like when it had the big pull back earlier in the year.

You need to get on the gold stocks franky like sbm dropped to 36 back then before reaching 92 a couple of months later a 150% gain in two months frank. sar dropped to 9 cents before going over 30 cents ,over 300% gain in two monhs. even newcrest dropped to 9 dollars on the day I told you all what a super bargain silver was on the 26th june, the exact low for the year, newcrest then went over 14 dollars in less than three months, a 55%+ gain . you dont know how to work it frank
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Strindberg
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goldbug
2 Oct 2013, 12:44 AM
Well if gold fails as a store of wealth and becomes worthless it will be the first time in 5000 years of recorded history.
Gold has lost 45% of its purchasing power in the 33 years since 1980.

An ounce of gold in 1980 had the purchasing power of $850 ie the equivalent of $2370 in 2013 dollars.

The value of gold has almost halved in real terms in 33 years.

Note: Above is based on US$ and US CPI
Edited by Strindberg, 2 Oct 2013, 12:52 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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goldbugunlogged
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Sydneyite
2 Oct 2013, 10:39 AM
goldbug
2 Oct 2013, 12:44 AM
Well if gold fails as a store of wealth and becomes worthless it will be the first time in 5000 years of recorded history. On the other hand, every single paper promise of wealth ever created has eventually reverted to it's intrinsic value of ZERO. Now that the promises are digital they can be wiped out in a nano second.
What a load of bullshit! Gold SUCKED as a store of value for 20 years from about 1980 through to 2000! Anyone who held through that period lost a huge amount of purchasing power.
Ha Ha typical cherry picking bull antics. 20 years out of 5000 ha ha. You didn't need gold over those 2 decades but if you bought well before the 1980 top you still did well. If you bought IT stocks, the darling of the 90's, you got wiped out. Bulls have such narrow vision, its why you always get sucked in at the bubble tops and lose on the way down.
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Sydneyite
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goldbugunlogged
2 Oct 2013, 01:22 PM
Sydneyite
2 Oct 2013, 10:39 AM
goldbug
2 Oct 2013, 12:44 AM
Well if gold fails as a store of wealth and becomes worthless it will be the first time in 5000 years of recorded history. On the other hand, every single paper promise of wealth ever created has eventually reverted to it's intrinsic value of ZERO. Now that the promises are digital they can be wiped out in a nano second.
What a load of bullshit! Gold SUCKED as a store of value for 20 years from about 1980 through to 2000! Anyone who held through that period lost a huge amount of purchasing power.
Ha Ha typical cherry picking bull antics. 20 years out of 5000 ha ha. You didn't need gold over those 2 decades but if you bought well before the 1980 top you still did well. If you bought IT stocks, the darling of the 90's, you got wiped out. Bulls have such narrow vision, its why you always get sucked in at the bubble tops and lose on the way down.
Well, good luck waiting over the next 20-30 years then for your gold holdings to have any hope of protecting some remnant of your original purchasing power..... hope you won''t need to buy anything over that time! But it will be OK, because in another 1000 years your investment might finally generate a real return! :lol
Edited by Sydneyite, 2 Oct 2013, 01:34 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Admin
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Gold tumbles following US shutdown

October 2, 2013 - 7:29AM

Gold prices sank more than 3 per cent overnight as investors sold on frustrations that the metal did not rally after the US government's partial shutdown, putting the safe-haven metal at its lowest in almost two months.

Gold, silver, copper and crude oil all fell particularly hard with strong volume noted around the opening of those US markets. The early activity stirred market talk of forced liquidation by a distressed commodities fund and of selling related to a fund rebalancing on the first day of the third quarter.

"Somebody put in a big sell order," said Axel Merk, portfolio manager at Merk Funds, which has $US450 million ($479 million) in currency mutual-fund assets.

A drop in the dollar and gains in US equities suggested that the reason behind the selloff was gold specific, as a large investor most likely needed to raise cash by selling gold futures, Merk said.

Gold futures prices dropped $US25, or 2 per cent, to an intraday low of $1,284 an ounce in just 10 minutes. Selling had accelerated after prices fell below key support at $1,310 and $1,300 an ounce. A fifth of the day's volume so far changed hands in that 10 minutes.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-tumbles-following-us-shutdown-20131002-2uqdl.html
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