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Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,660 Views)
MMM
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peter fraser
19 Sep 2013, 02:30 PM
goldbug
19 Sep 2013, 10:04 AM
No, he probably did the right thing, because the world is not on the mend Peter. An Australia especially. The GFC was like the stock market crash of 1929, very much like it. Now we have had 4+ years of failed rescue attempts, just like after 1929, and we are fast approaching the final leg down that will wipe out most currently popular asset classes.

I know you are in the financial industry with a good knowledge of markets but back in the early 1930's all the leading experts then agreed that the recover was strong and that all would return to pre-1929 norms too. But they were all wrong, the economies of the world collapsed for a decade. Being on the inside does not imply you are right. Quite the opposite in fact.
No I really don't have much knowledge of international markets. I'm just not in them at all.

I do think that pointing at the great depression of the 1930's and saying that it's just like now is a grave mistake and over simplistic though. There are many similarities, but many dissimilarities as well.

In my view and experience, the recession of 1974 was different to 1981 which was different to 1991 which was different to 2002 which was different to 2008.

But I'm sure that you will still stack up all of your gold and hope for the best.
The main differences from the 1920s depression Peter are that this time they owe a shitload more than they did then and that they were not printing 85 billion per month to try and stop it from collapsing . the other main difference is the US thrived after the 1920s deppression through motor cars and electrical goods and plenty of other goods which were then sent all around the world and were not produced in other countries back then.
So a bigger concern is what on earth will EVER pull them out of this recession even after it completely collapses ,which is now the ONLY possible outcome. you may remember how I discussed interest rates and explained what would happen along with the economy both here and there and also of continual and increasing job losses and you have seen how these have panned out.
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peter fraser
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MMM
19 Sep 2013, 03:03 PM
The main differences from the 1920s depression Peter are that this time they owe a shitload more than they did then and that they were not printing 85 billion per month to try and stop it from collapsing . the other main difference is the US thrived after the 1920s deppression through motor cars and electrical goods and plenty of other goods which were then sent all around the world and were not produced in other countries back then.
So a bigger concern is what on earth will EVER pull them out of this recession even after it completely collapses ,which is now the ONLY possible outcome. you may remember how I discussed interest rates and explained what would happen along with the economy both here and there and also of continual and increasing job losses and you have seen how these have panned out.
Lol - yes I recall the discussion on interest rates. As it turns out you were right. I think that rates were around the low 5's then and they are in the high 4's now. Whether it would have been better to fix in the low 5's 18 months ago or wait until now is probably debateable, but still you picked it well.

What you see as the weakness, I see as the strength. I agree that the USA will probably never get back to the power and strength it had post WW2, but it probably wouldn't anyway.

Each to his own Ted and best of luck with the au79.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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MMM
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peter fraser
19 Sep 2013, 03:40 PM
Lol - yes I recall the discussion on interest rates. As it turns out you were right. I think that rates were around the low 5's then and they are in the high 4's now. Whether it would have been better to fix in the low 5's 18 months ago or wait until now is probably debateable, but still you picked it well.

What you see as the weakness, I see as the strength. I agree that the USA will probably never get back to the power and strength it had post WW2, but it probably wouldn't anyway.

Each to his own Ted and best of luck with the au79.

Thnkyou Peter, it has come down a lot more than that since I first spoke about interest rates and more so if we speak in terms of rba interest rates.
But it could be debatable on fixing to an extent, if you only had a small loan that could be paid off in a few years I would probably of advised fixing it too, only becuase it may take longer for the variable rate to of come off so much in such a short time. But as you know most housing loans are for much longer than a couple of years and here is were I would of advised staying on the variable as I knew the only way it was going to head. and now we are at record lows and still looking to go lower, scary stuff .

I guess we were never going to see the US economy thrive like post ww2 but I dont see much hope even after it collapses, what happens ,do they match wages to devolping countries to be competeive at all, what would there standard of living be like. you referred to seeing some strength where I see weakness, and I am not sure if you were referring to here or there and what it was you see as strengh.

As for the au , I dont have much of that except for a few raraties, there is more to be made elsewhere, I do love ag though and see it as dictating the au as the fed will not be able to contain the ag like they can au, so I believe the ag may dictate the price of the au eventually and will be sooner rather than later, time will tell us all there and I have studied it to some degree.

I know the fence sits between us , but I wish you all the best with your ventures too Peter. :) I dont wish to see anybody lose out and have only tried to explain things to others where I can.
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MMM
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MMM
17 Sep 2013, 05:18 PM
Still here , just have better things to do than post on here all day every day like yourself ,says a lot shadow :bye:
I have also been holidaying where I dont always have reception , sometimes weeks at a time.

I am more a silver man shadow, gold still being supported though, and again breaking records being bought in highest numbers, there was a recent rort by goldman saacks and jp morgan ,which nows gives them less opportunately to short the market, they sold etfs to buy the real thing for cheap was their play and silver is the go even though the count likes to disagree with me on that.

plenty of good plays in gold shares, buy in late june and hold on for a month or two , for a nice quick earn happens every year , no rocket science.
look at the top five gold miners .

silver is still the go , last time I posted on here I told you all what a bargain silver when it hit 18 us dollars , I believe that day was the low for the year and from there it climbed up about 40% before droping back. I have given you the same earn on newcrest mining before after telling you what a good buy it was on the day that it just happened to hit the year low ,then increase 50%, but you all give me no credit so I dont waste my time much these days. again gold shares are heading into super bargain territory, newcrest hit 9,30 in late june , an absolute bargain considering it closed at over $7 in may 1988 when gold was worth a lot less than today . sbm has also been a very good play on short term runs after nice drops, some of you might like to look at it,

But I love silver , stocks are now depleteing around the world , us mint has run out of stock a few times over the last year or so.never before

with 100 us dollars you could buy over 400 ounces back in the 1920s, back in 2004 you could by about 20 ounces, today about 4 ounces , soon will be 2 then 1, only a short matter of time with the US now desperately depressing the price still with there 85 billion a month in money printing. the whole worlds yearly amount dug from the ground is about 1 billion a year yet these clowns are still trying to surpress the price with their 85 billion a month joke. there is far less silver above ground than gold and its being chewed up everyday thanks to modern tech, you may have heard of pcs,mobile phones, laptops ,tablets ,medical equiptment, xrays ,television ,motor cars electrical goods and solar panels just to mention a few.

so shadow look into silver plays and good gold share plays not interest only loans......
Now who out there was paying attention, I posted this two days ago. forth paragraph last sentence. I hand you guys things on a platter. I told you sbm was the go and that some of you might like to have a look , how many make returns of over 20% in one day alone. I have given you the exact low for silver for the year on the 26th june, where it then increased by around 40% in a matter of weeks, given you shares when it has hit the exact low for the year with 50% returns in a matter of weeks and now this, ever make retruns like that franky.

https://www.google.com.au/#q=asx+sbm
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miw
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Gazo
19 Sep 2013, 12:16 PM
Yes Catweasel, the Vampire Squid made good speculation, especially this one who bought a way more than average 4,300 futures contracts 5 mins before the announcement.

Posted Image

Would a retail investor do this? I don't think so.
I think I explained this trade a couple of days ago, along with pretty exact timings of when to buy gold. My main error was that I thought the right thing to do was to sell before market close, and right now it looks as if quite a lot of gold's movement happened after market close.

Just to recap, I saw about a 5:1 risk/reward in buying gold with a tight stop within 30 minutes before the FOMC announcement. Almost all the risk was to the upside, and it looks as if the trade paid off nicely. Shame I didn't pull the trigger on it myself.

I'm sure lots of other people saw the opportunity, so it is no surprise there was quite a bit of buying activity in the 30 minutes before the announcement.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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goldbug
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Pig Iron
17 Sep 2013, 10:50 PM
MMM
17 Sep 2013, 10:09 PM
NO ONE has it more wrong than you, you have told us you own property in depot hill, and also that you pay interest only loans, and also that you were thinking of selling up one to pay something else off,
you mean the silver that is down more than 40%???
haha... well you sure fucked that up!!!
So you went interest only!!! No wonder you are running frantically from thread to thread trying to ramp up WA property. You bought the "property doubles every 7" mantra Hook Line and Sinker didn't you :lol :lol You poor poor little man. Now you can't do anything, can't move, can't sell, just have to sit in your chains praying for a recovery that probably wont come in your lifetime.


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Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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MMM
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miw
19 Sep 2013, 08:22 PM
Gazo
19 Sep 2013, 12:16 PM
Yes Catweasel, the Vampire Squid made good speculation, especially this one who bought a way more than average 4,300 futures contracts 5 mins before the announcement.

Posted Image

Would a retail investor do this? I don't think so.
I think I explained this trade a couple of days ago, along with pretty exact timings of when to buy gold. My main error was that I thought the right thing to do was to sell before market close, and right now it looks as if quite a lot of gold's movement happened after market close.

Just to recap, I saw about a 5:1 risk/reward in buying gold with a tight stop within 30 minutes before the FOMC announcement. Almost all the risk was to the upside, and it looks as if the trade paid off nicely. Shame I didn't pull the trigger on it myself.

I'm sure lots of other people saw the opportunity, so it is no surprise there was quite a bit of buying activity in the 30 minutes before the announcement.
You were on the right track miw, except like I said yesterday or the day before ,I love silver and silver plays, and when gold goes up ,silver goes up more, I think gold increased by a bit over 4% while silver when up 5.6%, so almost another 50% return on your money over gold, and like I have told you gold shares go up more again like sbm I gave you guys two days ago, going up by over twenty percent, It was the fifth biggest earner on the asx today, the rest all being gold shares.

the number 1 todays asx was saracen , asx sar, I have bought and sold these before but was not on it yesterday, it went up by over 29%, not bad for one days work,not that your really working. one of my other favorites after pullbacks is medusa mml, which was the sixth biggest earner on todays asx.

Anyway, as for your play miw, most losses had already been priced in over the last few days leading to this , so as you said there was little downside risk for much upside gain, the fed cant stop the stimulus ,like I said the other day it would be like pulling the plug from the bath on their economy so it was never going to happen, but with most people bluffed by their bs there is much gain to be had when your on the ball.

But honestly, while I do like gold, you are wasting your time compared to silver and moreso gold shares, like I have said when gold goes up, silver goes up more and gold shares more than that. we saw gold go up over 4% , silver nearly 5.6% ,nearly a 50% profit increase over gold and the gold share I gave you guys two days ago went up over 20%, so a 500% profit increase over the gold price gain. So next time play silver and gold shares not the gold itself. the shares are quicker and easier to get on and off again, just something to think about. so there is much more upside to be had around gold rather than directly on the gold itself, hope this helps.
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Catweasel
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miw
19 Sep 2013, 08:22 PM
I think I explained this trade a couple of days ago, along with pretty exact timings of when to buy gold. My main error was that I thought the right thing to do was to sell before market close, and right now it looks as if quite a lot of gold's movement happened after market close.

Just to recap, I saw about a 5:1 risk/reward in buying gold with a tight stop within 30 minutes before the FOMC announcement. Almost all the risk was to the upside, and it looks as if the trade paid off nicely. Shame I didn't pull the trigger on it myself.

I'm sure lots of other people saw the opportunity, so it is no surprise there was quite a bit of buying activity in the 30 minutes before the announcement.
Catweasel say many a made a trade.

Many a windfall be a made in a day.

And it not even a Vampire Squid

or alumni.

But a action not confine to a gold.

Some the gold producer in a Asia

peak at a 9% in a today.

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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

goldbug
19 Sep 2013, 09:09 PM
So you went interest only!!! No wonder you are running frantically from thread to thread trying to ramp up WA property. You bought the "property doubles every 7" mantra Hook Line and Sinker didn't you :lol :lol You poor poor little man. Now you can't do anything, can't move, can't sell, just have to sit in your chains praying for a recovery that probably wont come in your lifetime.


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oh dear you have lost it completely.
the jam has slide right off your scone.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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goldbug
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I guess I got pretty close to the mark for you go all timid on us timmy. Never mind, you will have good company. Half of this nation will be in poverty soon.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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