Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,670 Views)
Pig Iron
Member Avatar
Bogan scum

peter fraser
16 May 2013, 04:04 PM
I was thinking the same. In fact I haven't seen R2M or raveswei post anywhere for a long time. In fact quite a few older once vocal bloggers seem to have retired.

Probably mowing their front lawn.
humble pie doesn't eat itself.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Andrew
Default APF Avatar


timmy
16 May 2013, 04:02 PM
it'd have little to no impact. the impact would be localized to places like kal.
It will reduce the potential expansions (greenfield and brownfield) of a number of gold producers. It may actually cause some gold mines to close, as some have quite high production costs that mean they are marginally profitable at this level, perhaps some are at a loss at these levels?

I know personally of a few gold mines who have canned a decent amount of work owing to this. You can see discussions in the media about a few mines that may close.

But you are right, none of that could affect Perth. It really is miraculous how no negatives in the mining industry can manage to impact Perth isn't it? The positives in mining are positive for Perth, but negatives have "little to no impact". Beautiful.

Oh my look- the miners at this gold mine that closed were fly in fly out. That means they live in Perth probably?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-24/staff-to-be-shed-as-tanami-gold-halts-mine/4648118



Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Elastic
Member Avatar


The price of gold does seem to be dictating the expansion or closure of mines.
On the other hand you have iron ore where there is still a massive spread between production and selling costs.
It tells me that as more iron ore production comes on line, there is a long way for prices to fall.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Strindberg
Member Avatar


Now US$1378.

Aren't there supposed to be massive queues of buyers all over the world? Perhaps that was just a bit of spin by the dealer network to help get rid of their falling value stock.
Edited by Strindberg, 16 May 2013, 06:53 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Thatguy
Member Avatar


newjez
16 May 2013, 03:56 PM
Isn't a falling gold price quite bearish for WA property? Why do some bulls take so much pleasure from it? Do you like seeing BP suffer?
It's not just gold you should be worried about. There has been a significant pause in greenfield sites across most mining industries. Mining labs in WA have no work at the moment.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
jim
Member Avatar

Thatguy
16 May 2013, 07:03 PM
It's not just gold you should be worried about. There has been a significant pause in greenfield sites across most mining industries. Mining labs in WA have no work at the moment.
Exactly! Surely the iron ore market is far more important to Australia.

By Leith van Onselen

From the AFR this afternoon comes news that Chinese steel mills have been re-selling iron ore bought under long-term contracts into the spot market, helping to explain why spot prices are at a five month low, 20% below their 2013 peak:

China’s steel producers are selling some iron ore cargoes back into the market, cutting inventories to manage costs as slow demand for steel in the world’s top consumer keeps profit margins under pressure.

Over the past two weeks, traders estimate that Chinese steel mills have resold 2 million to 3 million tonnes of cargoes bought under long-term contracts from miners into the spot market.

The sales have boosted available spot supplies, helping drive down prices to the lowest level for the year, and suggest Chinese mills may soon cut steel output as a slower-than-expected economic recovery dampens demand.

“It’s very clear that they are potentially looking at some short-term production cuts which is why they are trying to reduce their incoming inventory,” said a physical iron ore trader in Hong Kong who has seen mills offering cargoes due for delivery in June and onwards…

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/china-steel-mills-re-selling-iron-ore/

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

According to dfat, iron ore & concentrates accounted for a massive 20% of all Australian exports in 2011 to 2012 while gold accounted for only about 5% of the total

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Thatguy
16 May 2013, 07:03 PM
It's not just gold you should be worried about. There has been a significant pause in greenfield sites across most mining industries. Mining labs in WA have no work at the moment.
Yep, the anecdotal evidence is flooding in.

Go to any bar around Perth on a Friday after the offices shut and test the mood.

All the front line guys are worried: the enviroscientists, the engineers, the archaeolgists, the drafties, the QSs.

What they are telling me, loud and clear, is that the work is drying up and that the job losses are turning from trickle to flood.

Notes from the front.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Pig Iron
Member Avatar
Bogan scum

Elastic
16 May 2013, 05:21 PM
The price of gold does seem to be dictating the expansion or closure of mines.
On the other hand you have iron ore where there is still a massive spread between production and selling costs.
It tells me that as more iron ore production comes on line, there is a long way for prices to fall.
it does, but gold is no where in iron ores league.

if gold tanked to $1000/oz the vast majority of workers in gold mines would keep their jobs, expansions would get put on hold and those guys would suffer but even then, they would likely get redirected to other projects.

you have to remember if gold is tanking it means the money is probably going into something else that will need resources.
Veritas
16 May 2013, 07:46 PM
Yep, the anecdotal evidence is flooding in.
yeah it floods in because dickheads like you make it up!!!
Edited by Pig Iron, 16 May 2013, 09:05 PM.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


timmy
16 May 2013, 09:05 PM
it does, but gold is no where in iron ores league.

if gold tanked to $1000/oz the vast majority of workers in gold mines would keep their jobs, expansions would get put on hold and those guys would suffer but even then, they would likely get redirected to other projects.

you have to remember if gold is tanking it means the money is probably going into something else that will need resources.

yeah it floods in because dickheads like you make it up!!!
Quote:
 
yeah it floods in because dickheads like you make it up!!!


Why would I Timmy?

Do you think I want to see friends of mine lose their jobs?

Do you think I want to see families ruined by unemployment?

I can assure you, I don't.

I am merely telling you what I am being told by people with skin in the game.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


newjez
16 May 2013, 03:56 PM
Isn't a falling gold price quite bearish for WA property? Why do some bulls take so much pleasure from it? Do you like seeing BP suffer?
It wont be good for gold miners thats for sure. I would rather know about a problem then stick my head in the sand and say it cant be so.

Gold is on a long term downward trend, i said that a fair while ago. If it is bad for property, thats ok property prices will go down at some point and I would rather be armed with knowledge and in a position to take advantage of any situation. Im not really a bull or bear, a realist.

Edited by Mike, 16 May 2013, 10:09 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
3 users reading this topic (3 Guests and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy