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Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,672 Views)
jim
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Shadow
3 May 2013, 09:02 AM
Sounds like you're just guessing and stumbling around in the dark.

You promised a 40% house price crash... but house prices rose and gold crashed instead.
Posted Image

Talking about house prices and gold, since 2004 Sydney house prices have already collapsed by 60% when priced in gold !

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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

jim
3 May 2013, 11:52 AM
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Talking about house prices and gold, since 2004 Sydney house prices have already collapsed by 60% when priced in gold !
thats some tortured stats count.

did you really need a sock for that?
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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barns
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jim
3 May 2013, 11:52 AM
Posted Image

Talking about house prices and gold, since 2004 Sydney house prices have already collapsed by 60% when priced in gold !
It's interesting.

It shows that if you had 450 ounces of gold in 1997 and were about to buy a median house but forgot for some reason for 12 years you could have said "One day I'll be able to buy a median house with my gold". And you would have been right (for a short time in 2009 and for the past ~22 months).
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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Count du Monet
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timmy
3 May 2013, 12:35 PM
thats some tortured stats count.

did you really need a sock for that?
Not me, I don't have any socks. This here is the one identity I have on the forum.

55 ounces bought a Melbourne one weekend in late January 1980.

I wonder what it will be this time around? :D
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Count du Monet
3 May 2013, 02:06 PM
Not me, I don't have any socks. This here is the one identity I have on the forum.

55 ounces bought a Melbourne one weekend in late January 1980.

I wonder what it will be this time around? :D
what about buying and sellings costs count, why are these never included?

if you buy a house with gold in a practical sense you MUST convert it to cash first, which incurs costs.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Count du Monet
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timmy
3 May 2013, 03:06 PM
what about buying and sellings costs count, why are these never included?

if you buy a house with gold in a practical sense you MUST convert it to cash first, which incurs costs.
You mean what's termed the "spread"? Varies on small bars between 4% and 7%, depending on how well the market is doing. Perth mint has spreads down to 2% on their certificate program.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Trojan
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jim
3 May 2013, 11:52 AM
Talking about house prices and gold, since 2004 Sydney house prices have already collapsed by 60% when priced in gold !
Price it in tulip bulbs and we can see how far house prices "crashed" at the peak of the tulip bubble.

I want to see how it normally costs 500,000 tulip bulbs to buy a house but at the peak, it only cost 1 tulip bulb.
Then we can say house prices crashed 99.9999999% :lol

That would be just as relevant.
Edited by Trojan, 4 May 2013, 12:10 AM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Count du Monet
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Trojan
4 May 2013, 12:07 AM


That would be just as relevant.
Not really, tulip monetarism never came back, but the gold cycle relative to prices has been seen in the great depression, 1980. Black gold and yellow gold rose in price during the Great depression while everything else fell, indicating the monetary status of these commodities.
In 1980 the average POG was $550 (AUD), the Melbourne house $39,500. That's 72 ounces. During the Great Depression going by Stapledon's figures, a Melbourne house went for 80 ounces.

This is a history that repeats. :D
Edited by Count du Monet, 4 May 2013, 08:53 AM.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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frankrider
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jim
3 May 2013, 11:52 AM
Shadow
3 May 2013, 09:02 AM
Sounds like you're just guessing and stumbling around in the dark.

You promised a 40% house price crash... but house prices rose and gold crashed instead.
Posted Image

Talking about house prices and gold, since 2004 Sydney house prices have already collapsed by 60% when priced in gold !

Comments shadow?
Didn't think so, best let that chart go through to the keeper hey :lol :lol :lol

You can chart gold against almost anything and see a similar pattern, except for oil. Gold and oil (aside from the odd correction) are very linear. Perhaps it has something to do with the arabs being big lovers of gold.

Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan

A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

frankrider
4 May 2013, 07:58 PM
Comments shadow?
A better chart would compare total returns - gold is a zero yielding speculation, whereas property is a long term investment that provides rental income.

So the chart is quite misleading as it hides the fact that property provides a yield, unlike gold.

Sure, the gold bubble had a good run, I have never denied that.

But the bubble peaked almost two years ago and has crashed pretty hard since. Anyone holding gold now is holding a zero yielding asset that is falling in value.

At least when Sydney house prices fell they only fell by a few percent and continued to provided rental income during the decline.

And now the few percent fall in Sydney house prices has been fully reversed and prices are back at a new all-time-peak, and still rising.

Gold continues to fall.

In any case, you still don't have enough gold coins in your shoebox to buy a decent Sydney house, and never will.

Is the shed cold this time of year?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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