Gold price dives through support to new low. Gold Bubble continues to deflate.; Gold price to drop another 15% this year say strategists at Societe Generale
Tweet Topic Started: 3 Apr 2013, 10:29 AM (37,684 Views)
b_b Hyperinflation is still as probable as it was last week nothing has changed. A period of Deflation and Money Velocity hitting Stall speed is the perfect recipe for the supply shocks which precipitate Hyperinflation. Throw in some capital controls accross the Euro Zone and this cake is about baked.
QE will only increase from here, the markets have proven that all monetisation is fungible. QE funds have ended on the prop desks of the primary dealers. The MMT theory is wrong.
Enjoy The Ride!
The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.” ― Friedrich A. von Hayek
"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.
b_b Hyperinflation is still as probable as it was last week nothing has changed. A period of Deflation and Money Velocity hitting Stall speed is the perfect recipe for the supply shocks which precipitate Hyperinflation. Throw in some capital controls accross the Euro Zone and this cake is about baked.
QE will only increase from here, the markets have proven that all monetisation is fungible. QE funds have ended on the prop desks of the primary dealers. The MMT theory is wrong.
I can understand why you own gold. You clearly have very little understanding of qe.
Qe has increased the quantum of settlement funds in the banking system. That's it. The is no transmission mechanism to move these funds into the real economy. Bank reserves simply shift to each other. Lending growth only occurs when banks can find credit worthy borrowers. And with high levels of private debt, credit growth and broad money growth is likely to remain very weak. If qe is the basis of your gold position, I would urge you to do more research on the subject Instead of bagging ideas you do not understand.
Mmt record since 2008 stands up tO scutinity. There has been no excessive inflation, no spike in sovereign bond yields, no end of the world, no default in japan, USA, uk or any other currency issuer. There has been no hyperinflation in any Major economy. It correctly predicted the disaster in Europe. It predicted the us would recover and the uk would struggle with austerity. You can deny it all you like but the facts are overwhelming . Mmt has been spot on.
What did the Austrians predict? Tin foil hats for all.
I can understand why you own gold. You clearly have very little understanding of qe.
Qe has increased the quantum of settlement funds in the banking system. That's it. The is no transmission mechanism to move these funds into the real economy. Bank reserves simply shift to each other. Lending growth only occurs when banks can find credit worthy borrowers. And with high levels of private debt, credit growth and broad money growth is likely to remain very weak. If qe is the basis of your gold position, I would urge you to do more research on the subject Instead of bagging ideas you do not understand.
b_b I have not said QE allows banks to lend any more, the evidence suggests the QE cash component of their reserves now lets them to take on leveraged asset swap positions. Positions they were unable to take with the MBS on their books.
There has been documented evidence of this at JP Morgan. In fact there would be no QE if the banks did not consider the cash of a better quality asset in their reserves than the MBS. Why would they swap a high yield asset for a low yield? The only logical explanation is quality and liquidity allows more leverage.
Enjoy The Ride!
The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.” ― Friedrich A. von Hayek
"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.
. There has been no excessive inflation, no spike in sovereign bond yields, no end of the world, no default in japan, USA, uk or any other currency issuer.
Catweasel laugh.
In a case of a Japan, gold probably perform more than mouse house in a Australia.
It can scratch its chin to the bone and have the pointiest goatee in a chat room, but simply happen.
Whether the standpit say.
It didn't see any the chin scratch, expert or sandpit charlatan predict.
Shadow
15 Apr 2013, 10:59 PM
I subscribe to the view that house prices will just keep on rising in line with income growth over the medium-long term, as has been the case for the past 60+ years (apart from a brief period in the late 90s to early 2000s where prices rose faster than incomes. Australian house prices will just keep on doing this regardless of the price of gold or the general global gloom-mongering about the imminent collapse of the USA, China, Europe or whatever country happens to be in vogue for an imminent collapse at any particular time.
Catweasel say it the solidly typical the narrative with its roots in the 60s, just after a 50s.
Problem the be that in a 50s, mouse would have no ability to string narrative together.
Very the different in a 2013. Now its narrative can be a trawled from a past observe and thrust into a future.
It show the occupation of mouse skull largely won through education system, media and master dogma.
In a case of a Japan, gold probably perform more than mouse house in a Australia.
Catweasel, I hate to tell you that Gold has not become more valuable. The Yen has just become less valuable.
I finally capitulated and sold a bunch of gold I didn't own at about $1360. The technicals are still pointing at a price of about $300, although I don't really believe that. $1250 will bring my trailing stop well into above-water territory. I was seriously thinking of doing it on Friday night because the signal was there, but decided to think about it over the weekend. Bugger.
Also bought some double-short silver, not so much because I think Silver is going down in the long-term, but because the premiums on the options are insane. If Silver holds below about $25.30 until Friday I make 2% on a 5-day trade. (I bought the ETF at $75.80 and sold 5-day $69 call options for $8.30. The ETF is trading at about $78 at the moment. Just crazy action on the PMs market tonight.
Now everyone can call me a dickhead if things turn around. On the other hand if things turn around, there are a couple of miners that I own that will stop killing me. :P
Edit: Hmm. What I actually sold was the GLD ETF at $136. There is a divergence between the ETF and the Gold price, since the ETF is supposed to be 1/10oz per share. I think I effectively shorted gold at $1410 or so. This divergence means that the GLD ETF is going to have to sell a bunch of gold from their vaults as well, pushing the price for physical delivery down even further in the short term. That makes my point where the trailing stop goes above water more like US$1320/oz. Jeepers.
Catweasel, I hate to tell you that Gold has not become more valuable. The Yen has just become less valuable.
I finally capitulated and sold a bunch of gold I didn't own at about $1360. The technicals are still pointing at a price of about $300, although I don't really believe that. $1250 will bring my trailing stop well into above-water territory. I was seriously thinking of doing it on Friday night because the signal was there, but decided to think about it over the weekend. Bugger.
Also bought some double-short silver, not so much because I think Silver is going down in the long-term, but because the premiums on the options are insane. If Silver holds below about $25.30 until Friday I make 2% on a 5-day trade. (I bought the ETF at $75.80 and sold 5-day $69 call options for $8.30. The ETF is trading at about $78 at the moment. Just crazy action on the PMs market tonight.
Now everyone can call me a dickhead if things turn around. On the other hand if things turn around, there are a couple of miners that I own that will stop killing me. :P
Catweasel say a interesting.
A price of a gold the double in a yen in 5 the years.
What does it the mean in its logic? That a yen buy only the half of a 5 the years ago?
It means that gold is not priced in Yen. The Yen has depreciated by, what? 35% in the last few months. This has hidden the drop in Gold from the Japanese. Or maybe it hasn't. I hear the Japanese are selling their jewelry because they think Gold will tank in Yen terms as well.
Or maybe Japan is in inflation at the moment, but it just hasn't shown up in the CPI yet. It sure bloody well will if they don't turn on their nukes lickety-split.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Gold should be going up. The fact that it's not should be worrying those that hold it. You might want to think what the gold price was the last time a country decided to dump it's reserves. You can hope and hope and hope, but there comes a time when you have to face reality. Things are happening here that we are not privy to.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Gold should be going up. The fact that it's not should be worrying those that hold it. You might want to think what the gold price was the last time a country decided to dump it's reserves. You can hope and hope and hope, but there comes a time when you have to face reality. Things are happening here that we are not privy to.
Gold was just over bought based on an inability to understand that QE was not creating a particularly inflationary increase in prices and was never likely to if deficit spending did not continue for ever in an out of control manner.
Sequestration must have had an impact on Gold. The US is indicating it takes the longer term threat of the debt it will hold seriously, whereas it was priced into Gold that the US would be unable to act or would chose not to act.
However I still think Gold will be rising thru USD2000 before around the year 2020
Gold was just over bought based on an inability to understand that QE was not creating a particularly inflationary increase in prices and was never likely to if deficit spending did not continue for ever in an out of control manner.
Sequestration must have had an impact on Gold. The US is indicating it takes the longer term threat of the debt it will hold seriously, whereas it was priced into Gold that the US would be unable to act or would chose not to act.
However I still think Gold will be rising thru USD2000 before around the year 2020
I'll bet you a pepper corn it'll see 1000 before it sees 2000.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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